$蔚来(NIO)$ _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

小猴几

2019-02-28

$蔚来(NIO)$ 我在三月四月中期看空蔚来，原因有以下三点：

1.ES8年度销量11348，盈利上限已锁定，就看成本是多少了。这一波40%上涨已经提前预支了财报红利，等3.5财报出来大概率横盘或随A股补跌

2.今年的新能源补贴政策马上公布，补贴将会进一步降低，因为国家将会在2021前完全取消新能源汽车的补贴。去年的补贴政策是2月发布的，今年已经延后了，不可能再推

3.3月11号一批限售股解禁，大家可以查查每当限售解禁时中概股的表现

其实还有一点场外因素，就是现在大A表现良好，一些游资将会调整重心，回归大A。当然这点没有前三点重要

各抒己见，欢迎拍砖，拒绝无脑喷

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我还是小白
2019-02-28
我还是小白
1、按目前的销量，成本肯定下不来，汽车行业不可能赢者通吃，蔚来有自己的核心竞争力。目前的股价是低估的，上涨空间还很大。
2、买蔚来的车主，是不看补贴的
3、解禁之日就是补仓之日
- 小猴几回复啷哩个啷:
  臆测，根据经验
- 啷哩个啷回复小猴几:
  解禁前为什么还有拉升，臆测吗
- 小猴几:
  我同意未来还有上涨空间，前提是19年继续保持高速增长，但是中短期是很难再涨的。可以搏一波心态，解禁前肯定有一把拉升
我要买GTR
2019-02-28
我要买GTR
你说的有道理，还有几点是 es6出来后性价比高出不少，在es6批量交付前，Q1Q2订单数量可能没有18年Q4多。自动驾驶目前还是个未知数。而es6批量交付时候，市场上的同级别竞争对手也出来不少，销售难度远大于17年
- 小猴几:
  主要是中期不确定因素实在是太多了，在没看到明确的销量增长之前，股价不可能脱离基本面继续飙升了
兴八
2019-02-28
兴八
看你的资料多半三四月要涨，哥们儿你的失败能造就国企成功，加油！
- 小猴几:
  哈哈帖子是春节期间给大家乐呵乐呵的。去年空虎牙今年空PDD赚了不少
欧几里得的重狙
2019-02-28
欧几里得的重狙
年底怕没人会再讨论蔚来
- 小猴几:
  那要看今年销量了

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":411213,"tweetId":"411213","gmtCreate":1551315125907,"gmtModify":1704790861857,"author":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"authorIdStr":"3468455707514263","name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":126,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>$蔚来(NIO)$ 我在三月四月中期看空蔚来，原因有以下三点： 1.ES8年度销量11348，盈利上限已锁定，就看成本是多少了。这一波40%上涨已经提前预支了财报红利，等3.5财报出来大概率横盘或随A股补跌 2.今年的新能源补贴政策马上公布，补贴将会进一步降低，因为国家将会在2021前完全取消新能源汽车的补贴。去年的补贴政策是2月发布的，今年已经延后了，不可能再推 3.3月11号一批限售股解禁，大家可以查查每当限售解禁时中概股的表现 其实还有一点场外因素，就是现在大A表现良好，一些游资将会调整重心，回归大A。当然这点没有前三点重要 各抒己见，欢迎拍砖，拒绝无脑喷 </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>$蔚来(NIO)$ 我在三月四月中期看空蔚来，原因有以下三点： 1.ES8年度销量11348，盈利上限已锁定，就看成本是多少了。这一波40%上涨已经提前预支了财报红利，等3.5财报出来大概率横盘或随A股补跌 2.今年的新能源补贴政策马上公布，补贴将会进一步降低，因为国家将会在2021前完全取消新能源汽车的补贴。去年的补贴政策是2月发布的，今年已经延后了，不可能再推 3.3月11号一批限售股解禁，大家可以查查每当限售解禁时中概股的表现 其实还有一点场外因素，就是现在大A表现良好，一些游资将会调整重心，回归大A。当然这点没有前三点重要 各抒己见，欢迎拍砖，拒绝无脑喷 </body></html>","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 我在三月四月中期看空蔚来，原因有以下三点： 1.ES8年度销量11348，盈利上限已锁定，就看成本是多少了。这一波40%上涨已经提前预支了财报红利，等3.5财报出来大概率横盘或随A股补跌 2.今年的新能源补贴政策马上公布，补贴将会进一步降低，因为国家将会在2021前完全取消新能源汽车的补贴。去年的补贴政策是2月发布的，今年已经延后了，不可能再推 3.3月11号一批限售股解禁，大家可以查查每当限售解禁时中概股的表现 其实还有一点场外因素，就是现在大A表现良好，一些游资将会调整重心，回归大A。当然这点没有前三点重要 各抒己见，欢迎拍砖，拒绝无脑喷","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/411213","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11482,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["NIO"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":500,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":1354910,"gmtCreate":1551316385433,"gmtModify":1551316385433,"authorId":3508583756824281,"author":{"id":3508583756824281,"authorId":3508583756824281,"name":"我还是小白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68143d829b37eecbd46e2a4ac0e5b86f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"1、按目前的销量，成本肯定下不来，汽车行业不可能赢者通吃，蔚来有自己的核心竞争力。目前的股价是低估的，上涨空间还很大。 \n 2、买蔚来的车主，是不看补贴的 \n 3、解禁之日就是补仓之日","text":"1、按目前的销量，成本肯定下不来，汽车行业不可能赢者通吃，蔚来有自己的核心竞争力。目前的股价是低估的，上涨空间还很大。 \n 2、买蔚来的车主，是不看补贴的 \n 3、解禁之日就是补仓之日","html":"1、按目前的销量，成本肯定下不来，汽车行业不可能赢者通吃，蔚来有自己的核心竞争力。目前的股价是低估的，上涨空间还很大。 \n 2、买蔚来的车主，是不看补贴的 \n 3、解禁之日就是补仓之日","likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"subComments":[{"id":1356126,"gmtCreate":1551352122050,"gmtModify":1551352122050,"authorId":3468455707514263,"author":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3499907627678647,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3499907627678647,"authorId":3499907627678647,"name":"啷哩个啷","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":1354910,"prevId":1355846,"content":"臆测，根据经验","text":"臆测，根据经验","html":"臆测，根据经验"},{"id":1355846,"gmtCreate":1551346211489,"gmtModify":1551346211489,"authorId":3499907627678647,"author":{"id":3499907627678647,"authorId":3499907627678647,"name":"啷哩个啷","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3468455707514263,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":1354910,"prevId":1354966,"content":"解禁前为什么还有拉升，臆测吗","text":"解禁前为什么还有拉升，臆测吗","html":"解禁前为什么还有拉升，臆测吗"},{"id":1354966,"gmtCreate":1551317761302,"gmtModify":1551317761302,"authorId":3468455707514263,"author":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":1354910,"prevId":0,"content":"我同意未来还有上涨空间，前提是19年继续保持高速增长，但是中短期是很难再涨的。可以搏一波心态，解禁前肯定有一把拉升","text":"我同意未来还有上涨空间，前提是19年继续保持高速增长，但是中短期是很难再涨的。可以搏一波心态，解禁前肯定有一把拉升","html":"我同意未来还有上涨空间，前提是19年继续保持高速增长，但是中短期是很难再涨的。可以搏一波心态，解禁前肯定有一把拉升"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1354909,"gmtCreate":1551316361678,"gmtModify":1551316361678,"authorId":3436416125521222,"author":{"id":3436416125521222,"authorId":3436416125521222,"name":"我要买GTR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"你说的有道理，还有几点是 es6出来后性价比高出不少，在es6批量交付前，Q1Q2订单数量可能没有18年Q4多。自动驾驶目前还是个未知数。而es6批量交付时候，市场上的同级别竞争对手也出来不少，销售难度远大于17年","text":"你说的有道理，还有几点是 es6出来后性价比高出不少，在es6批量交付前，Q1Q2订单数量可能没有18年Q4多。自动驾驶目前还是个未知数。而es6批量交付时候，市场上的同级别竞争对手也出来不少，销售难度远大于17年","html":"你说的有道理，还有几点是 es6出来后性价比高出不少，在es6批量交付前，Q1Q2订单数量可能没有18年Q4多。自动驾驶目前还是个未知数。而es6批量交付时候，市场上的同级别竞争对手也出来不少，销售难度远大于17年","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":1354970,"gmtCreate":1551317924011,"gmtModify":1551317924011,"authorId":3468455707514263,"author":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":1354909,"prevId":0,"content":"主要是中期不确定因素实在是太多了，在没看到明确的销量增长之前，股价不可能脱离基本面继续飙升了","text":"主要是中期不确定因素实在是太多了，在没看到明确的销量增长之前，股价不可能脱离基本面继续飙升了","html":"主要是中期不确定因素实在是太多了，在没看到明确的销量增长之前，股价不可能脱离基本面继续飙升了"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1354905,"gmtCreate":1551316174431,"gmtModify":1551316174431,"authorId":3509128371410168,"author":{"id":3509128371410168,"authorId":3509128371410168,"name":"兴八","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec7011e925c3934b5c0cc9be3e43274","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"看你的资料多半三四月要涨，哥们儿你的失败能造就国企成功，加油！","text":"看你的资料多半三四月要涨，哥们儿你的失败能造就国企成功，加油！","html":"看你的资料多半三四月要涨，哥们儿你的失败能造就国企成功，加油！","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":1354960,"gmtCreate":1551317630182,"gmtModify":1551317630182,"authorId":3468455707514263,"author":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":1354905,"prevId":0,"content":"哈哈帖子是春节期间给大家乐呵乐呵的。去年空虎牙今年空PDD赚了不少","text":"哈哈帖子是春节期间给大家乐呵乐呵的。去年空虎牙今年空PDD赚了不少","html":"哈哈帖子是春节期间给大家乐呵乐呵的。去年空虎牙今年空PDD赚了不少"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1355699,"gmtCreate":1551342358048,"gmtModify":1551342358048,"authorId":3468500797236571,"author":{"id":3468500797236571,"authorId":3468500797236571,"name":"欧几里得的重狙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f254523021470ca0597f06c974255b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"年底怕没人会再讨论蔚来","text":"年底怕没人会再讨论蔚来","html":"年底怕没人会再讨论蔚来","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":1355781,"gmtCreate":1551344899666,"gmtModify":1551344899666,"authorId":3468455707514263,"author":{"id":3468455707514263,"authorId":3468455707514263,"name":"小猴几","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78b003217d2a5d5d94f97e6c31dc6e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":411213,"type":1,"supId":1355699,"prevId":0,"content":"那要看今年销量了","text":"那要看今年销量了","html":"那要看今年销量了"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/411213"}