Beepy
2020-12-17
Nio will catch up but tesla still a buy
Can Tesla still dominate in electric vehicles? Investors should reconsider!
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Investors should reconsider!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133638314","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla has benefited from its position at the forefront of the electric vehicle industry for","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla has benefited from its position at the forefront of the electric vehicle industry for years; other automakers' past failures to build rival EV offerings reinforced Tesla's market dominance narrative.</li>\n <li>Now, competition is finally coming to the EV market, with more than 50 offerings coming to market in 2021 alone; Tesla's position of EV leadership will be sorely tested.</li>\n <li>Rival EV makers have already made headway in key international markets, including the EU and China; as Tesla's market share erodes, its growth narrative may come under pressure.</li>\n <li>Tesla's valuation implies decades of market dominance; as that prospect begins to fade in the face of intensifying competition, so too will Tesla's share price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has long been at the forefront of the electric vehicle space. Thanks to a fortunate mixture of first-mover advantage and reticence on the part of established automakers to go all in on EVs, Tesla enjoyed years of near total dominance of the EV market. But it now seems that EV market competition has at last begun to heat up.</p>\n<p>Forced to contend with credible rivals for the first time, Tesla’s market dominance is being put to the test. Based on the data currently coming out of the most developed EV markets, Tesla’s lead appears to be eroding rapidly. As EV competition continues to heat up, things are likely to only get worse from here. That will eventually threaten to weigh on Tesla’s sky-high valuation.</p>\n<p>Tsunami Of Competition On The Horizon</p>\n<p>Tesla built its market dominance in the absence of credible competition. While several automakers rolled out EV offerings of their own over the past several years, few of these early “Tesla Killers'' managed to gain much traction, a fact that led many bulls to conclude on Tesla’s market dominance and lead in EV technology. Unfortunately, that confidence may have blinded some investors to the prospect of serious competition on the horizon.</p>\n<p>After years of talking about betting big on EVs, several automakers are at last going all in. General Motors (NYSE:GM), for example, committed last month to invest a staggering$27 billion in EVsover the next five years, with 30 all-electric vehicles expected to be on the market by 2025. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. 2021 will be a big year for EV rollouts, with more than50 launchesscheduled for non-Tesla EVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376b8ba8495e888dbe2219efcacc98f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\"><i>Source: Motorhead</i></p>\n<p>With competition heating up, Tesla will have to adapt to being just one of many players in an increasingly saturated EV market. Things that Tesla has historically been able to get away with, such assubstandard reliability, build quality, and service, may no longer fly when consumers have a host of other attractive EV options from more conventional automakers to choose from.</p>\n<p>Market Dominance Already Under Threat</p>\n<p>The dynamics of national EV markets vary based on a myriad of factors, most notably the generosity of government incentives. In general, the more generous a country’s EV subsidy regime, the more active the country’s EV market. Tesla enjoyed years of strong demand and market dominance in many of these key markets, especially in the EU. Yet, as competitors have burst onto the EU market in greater numbers since 2018, Tesla has seen itsmarket shareshrink precipitously. Indeed, while Tesla was able to boast approximately 33% EV market share in the EU in Q4 2019, this has fallen to a hair over10% market share today.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f342766fb841f9e9937655e97e971db4\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: GLJ Research</i></p>\n<p>Virtually, the exact same story has been playing out in China, a market on which Tesla has pinned much of its growth hopes. In an October article, “Tesla Faces A Real Demand Problem In China,” I discussed the signs of unexpectedly soft demand in the Chinese market. Things appear to have gotten worse since then, thanks to intensifying competition fromdomestic EV companies. Competition has already begun to visibly bleed away Tesla’smarket sharein China.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28cba742be4de3a3eacbf404d7add963\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"291\"><i>Source: GLJ Research</i></p>\n<p>Even Tesla's strong November, which saw Chinese deliveries double from October, was only enough to lift the company's market share in the countryfrom 8% to 12.5%, well below the 25% market share it claimed in March.</p>\n<p>Investors' Eye View</p>\n<p>Tesla’s market capitalization currently stands at $600 billion, making it the world’s most valuable automaker by a wide margin. Tesla’s valuation now dwarfs that of Toyota (NYSE:TM), which held the top spot until this year. Yet while Toyotaproduced 6,416,715 vehiclesduring the first three quarters of 2020, Tesla producedjust 329,980. Moreover, while Toyota has become a byword for efficient and profitable automotive manufacturing, Tesla has failed to consistently deliverpositive earningsfrom operations in the absence of regulatory credit sales.</p>\n<p>Despite trailing Toyota by vast margins in terms of production, sales, and profitability, Tesla’s market capitalization is nearly triple that of its larger rival. The reason for this incongruence is simple: The market has priced in many years of phenomenal growth on Tesla’s part. To justify its current valuation, Tesla will need to do more than become the world’s biggest and most profitable automaker; it will have to effectively dominate the entire auto market on a level without historical precedent. Even historically bullish analysts have started to question Tesla’s ability to deliver nigh-infinite growth. Jefferies’ Philippe Houchois, for example, cautioned investors last week to temper theirwilder expectations:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"We don't believe Tesla can dominate autos given industry structure and politics.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Tesla is priced for auto market dominance. That is a rather tall order no matter how you look at it. With competition already eating into Tesla’s market share in key markets, it is unclear how Tesla could reverse the trend, especially as wave after wave of new offerings hits the EV market over the next couple years.</p>\n<p>Investors betting on Tesla’s perpetual EV dominance should think again.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Can Tesla still dominate in electric vehicles? 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Investors should reconsider!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-17 16:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394936-tesla-new-wave-of-competitors-threatens-ev-dominance><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla has benefited from its position at the forefront of the electric vehicle industry for years; other automakers' past failures to build rival EV offerings reinforced Tesla's market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394936-tesla-new-wave-of-competitors-threatens-ev-dominance\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff460a3c38d8370653067c1948c76ac","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394936-tesla-new-wave-of-competitors-threatens-ev-dominance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133638314","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has benefited from its position at the forefront of the electric vehicle industry for years; other automakers' past failures to build rival EV offerings reinforced Tesla's market dominance narrative.\nNow, competition is finally coming to the EV market, with more than 50 offerings coming to market in 2021 alone; Tesla's position of EV leadership will be sorely tested.\nRival EV makers have already made headway in key international markets, including the EU and China; as Tesla's market share erodes, its growth narrative may come under pressure.\nTesla's valuation implies decades of market dominance; as that prospect begins to fade in the face of intensifying competition, so too will Tesla's share price.\n\nTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has long been at the forefront of the electric vehicle space. Thanks to a fortunate mixture of first-mover advantage and reticence on the part of established automakers to go all in on EVs, Tesla enjoyed years of near total dominance of the EV market. But it now seems that EV market competition has at last begun to heat up.\nForced to contend with credible rivals for the first time, Tesla’s market dominance is being put to the test. Based on the data currently coming out of the most developed EV markets, Tesla’s lead appears to be eroding rapidly. As EV competition continues to heat up, things are likely to only get worse from here. That will eventually threaten to weigh on Tesla’s sky-high valuation.\nTsunami Of Competition On The Horizon\nTesla built its market dominance in the absence of credible competition. While several automakers rolled out EV offerings of their own over the past several years, few of these early “Tesla Killers'' managed to gain much traction, a fact that led many bulls to conclude on Tesla’s market dominance and lead in EV technology. Unfortunately, that confidence may have blinded some investors to the prospect of serious competition on the horizon.\nAfter years of talking about betting big on EVs, several automakers are at last going all in. General Motors (NYSE:GM), for example, committed last month to invest a staggering$27 billion in EVsover the next five years, with 30 all-electric vehicles expected to be on the market by 2025. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. 2021 will be a big year for EV rollouts, with more than50 launchesscheduled for non-Tesla EVs.\nSource: Motorhead\nWith competition heating up, Tesla will have to adapt to being just one of many players in an increasingly saturated EV market. Things that Tesla has historically been able to get away with, such assubstandard reliability, build quality, and service, may no longer fly when consumers have a host of other attractive EV options from more conventional automakers to choose from.\nMarket Dominance Already Under Threat\nThe dynamics of national EV markets vary based on a myriad of factors, most notably the generosity of government incentives. In general, the more generous a country’s EV subsidy regime, the more active the country’s EV market. Tesla enjoyed years of strong demand and market dominance in many of these key markets, especially in the EU. Yet, as competitors have burst onto the EU market in greater numbers since 2018, Tesla has seen itsmarket shareshrink precipitously. Indeed, while Tesla was able to boast approximately 33% EV market share in the EU in Q4 2019, this has fallen to a hair over10% market share today.\n\nSource: GLJ Research\nVirtually, the exact same story has been playing out in China, a market on which Tesla has pinned much of its growth hopes. In an October article, “Tesla Faces A Real Demand Problem In China,” I discussed the signs of unexpectedly soft demand in the Chinese market. Things appear to have gotten worse since then, thanks to intensifying competition fromdomestic EV companies. Competition has already begun to visibly bleed away Tesla’smarket sharein China.\nSource: GLJ Research\nEven Tesla's strong November, which saw Chinese deliveries double from October, was only enough to lift the company's market share in the countryfrom 8% to 12.5%, well below the 25% market share it claimed in March.\nInvestors' Eye View\nTesla’s market capitalization currently stands at $600 billion, making it the world’s most valuable automaker by a wide margin. Tesla’s valuation now dwarfs that of Toyota (NYSE:TM), which held the top spot until this year. Yet while Toyotaproduced 6,416,715 vehiclesduring the first three quarters of 2020, Tesla producedjust 329,980. Moreover, while Toyota has become a byword for efficient and profitable automotive manufacturing, Tesla has failed to consistently deliverpositive earningsfrom operations in the absence of regulatory credit sales.\nDespite trailing Toyota by vast margins in terms of production, sales, and profitability, Tesla’s market capitalization is nearly triple that of its larger rival. The reason for this incongruence is simple: The market has priced in many years of phenomenal growth on Tesla’s part. To justify its current valuation, Tesla will need to do more than become the world’s biggest and most profitable automaker; it will have to effectively dominate the entire auto market on a level without historical precedent. Even historically bullish analysts have started to question Tesla’s ability to deliver nigh-infinite growth. Jefferies’ Philippe Houchois, for example, cautioned investors last week to temper theirwilder expectations:\n\n \"We don't believe Tesla can dominate autos given industry structure and politics.”\n\nTesla is priced for auto market dominance. That is a rather tall order no matter how you look at it. With competition already eating into Tesla’s market share in key markets, it is unclear how Tesla could reverse the trend, especially as wave after wave of new offerings hits the EV market over the next couple years.\nInvestors betting on Tesla’s perpetual EV dominance should think again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":31,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/397355018"}
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