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2020-12-17

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉加入标普会涨多少\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-17 16:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg><strong>刺客夜行</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76b3cc53dd60ecb6eab407da188d689","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150558758","content_text":"今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are indexed\n11.2 trillion are indexed + benchmarked\nindex不管特斯拉价格多少，必须买\nbenchmarked大多也会买，但是有一定自由度\n这两个我们可以看成上涨空间的上下边界\n4.6 trillion indexed，乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多16%\n11.2 trillion indexed + benchmark, 乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多39%\n所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。换算成dollar, 大概股价在473-566之间。\n盘后现在特斯拉收在462。差不多接近上涨区间的下边界。\n下面我们来考虑其他变量。\n1.\n对于index funds，根本不考虑价格是多少，over valued还是under valued，只要在index里面，就按权重直接买，造成的结果是，盘子越大的股票，要买的越多。\n如果下个月21号前，Tesla的涨幅比标普要大，换句话讲未来一个月特斯拉如果outperform SPX，越outperform，那么权重就会越大，买盘就越大，造成特斯拉的涨幅更大。正向循环。\n如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。\n2.\n12/18正好是今年最后四巫日。Option到期。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。\n3.\n另外还有index rebalance，其他的index也会考虑。\n4.\n别忘了还有好些short的人。所以事实上available for purchase的oustanding shares会更少些。\n综上，最差情况涨到473，目前已经差不多到了。我想明天开盘一定在这个数之上。最好情况理论值566，加入其他变量。我觉得会在600-700之间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3357,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/397078908"}