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2021-02-17
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A mountain of Americans' savings could determine where the US economy goes next
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But there's one crucial question: Are Americans ready to spend the savings they've stashed away during the pandemic?</p><p>What's happening: In a note to clients this week, Goldman Sachs strategists estimated that Americans are sitting on $1.5 trillion in \"excess\" or \"forced\" savings. They forecast that figure will climb to $2.4 trillion, or almost the size of India's annual GDP, \"by the time that normal economic life is restored around mid-year.\"</p><p>Unprecedented government support — including stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits — has kept disposable income high for many during the pandemic. But fears about the future, combined with a lack of spending opportunities, mean that people have put lots away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e301697c15b9c3f185a63366c61d73\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>How Americans deploy those savings in the coming months is one key to where the economy goes next.</p><p>For a strong recovery to take hold, people need to be confident that the worst of the pandemic is behind them and start shelling out for restaurants, trips and movies. On this front, Morgan Stanley's chief economist Chetan Ahya is optimistic.</p><p>\"In our view, low consumer spending has been due to mobility restrictions rather than unwillingness to spend, and will therefore be quick to adjust when restrictions are lifted,\" Ahya said in a research note Friday.</p><p>But a recent poll conducted by Bankrate found that more Americans are now prioritizing saving ahead of paying down credit card debt, a sign of how the psychology of a severe recession could change spending habits over the longer term.</p><p>Watch this space: The other extreme could cause problems, too. If people quickly dump too much money into the economy, some economists fear that prices could spike, forcing central banks to raise interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p>\"Whether households spend a modest or large share of these pent-up savings as the economy fully reopens could be the difference between a healthy recovery and overheating,\" Goldman Sachs observed.</p><p>Discussion about what happens to the mountain of household savings is growing as the virus outlook improves. The United States reported about 64,900 new infections on Sunday, the country's lowest case count since October.</p><p>The fate of President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package is another factor.</p><p>\"There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation,\" former Obama economic adviser Larry Summers warned in a widely-read column published in the Washington Post earlier this month.</p><p>Not just the United States: The savings question is one that dogs all economies that are powered by spending on services instead of manufacturing goods. Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane pointed to high savings rates among UK households in an opinion piece published in The Daily Mail last week.</p><p>\"The rapid rollout of the vaccination program across the UK means a decisive corner has been turned in the battle against Covid,\" he said. \"A decisive corner is about to be turned for the economy too, with enormous amounts of pent-up financial energy waiting to be released, like a coiled spring.\"</p><p>That store of energy could have a big impact. How big, however, remains to be seen — as do the consequences of a potential spending spree.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A mountain of Americans' savings could determine where the US economy goes next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA mountain of Americans' savings could determine where the US economy goes next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-17 11:53 GMT+8 <a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/16/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>London (CNN Business) Wall Street is expecting the economy to come roaring back to life in the second half of this year. But there's one crucial question: Are Americans ready to spend the savings they...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/16/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/16/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187765738","content_text":"London (CNN Business) Wall Street is expecting the economy to come roaring back to life in the second half of this year. But there's one crucial question: Are Americans ready to spend the savings they've stashed away during the pandemic?What's happening: In a note to clients this week, Goldman Sachs strategists estimated that Americans are sitting on $1.5 trillion in \"excess\" or \"forced\" savings. They forecast that figure will climb to $2.4 trillion, or almost the size of India's annual GDP, \"by the time that normal economic life is restored around mid-year.\"Unprecedented government support — including stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits — has kept disposable income high for many during the pandemic. But fears about the future, combined with a lack of spending opportunities, mean that people have put lots away.How Americans deploy those savings in the coming months is one key to where the economy goes next.For a strong recovery to take hold, people need to be confident that the worst of the pandemic is behind them and start shelling out for restaurants, trips and movies. On this front, Morgan Stanley's chief economist Chetan Ahya is optimistic.\"In our view, low consumer spending has been due to mobility restrictions rather than unwillingness to spend, and will therefore be quick to adjust when restrictions are lifted,\" Ahya said in a research note Friday.But a recent poll conducted by Bankrate found that more Americans are now prioritizing saving ahead of paying down credit card debt, a sign of how the psychology of a severe recession could change spending habits over the longer term.Watch this space: The other extreme could cause problems, too. If people quickly dump too much money into the economy, some economists fear that prices could spike, forcing central banks to raise interest rates sooner than expected.\"Whether households spend a modest or large share of these pent-up savings as the economy fully reopens could be the difference between a healthy recovery and overheating,\" Goldman Sachs observed.Discussion about what happens to the mountain of household savings is growing as the virus outlook improves. The United States reported about 64,900 new infections on Sunday, the country's lowest case count since October.The fate of President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package is another factor.\"There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation,\" former Obama economic adviser Larry Summers warned in a widely-read column published in the Washington Post earlier this month.Not just the United States: The savings question is one that dogs all economies that are powered by spending on services instead of manufacturing goods. Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane pointed to high savings rates among UK households in an opinion piece published in The Daily Mail last week.\"The rapid rollout of the vaccination program across the UK means a decisive corner has been turned in the battle against Covid,\" he said. \"A decisive corner is about to be turned for the economy too, with enormous amounts of pent-up financial energy waiting to be released, like a coiled spring.\"That store of energy could have a big impact. How big, however, remains to be seen — as do the consequences of a potential spending spree.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/385878899"}
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