Fall forward7
2021-02-05
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Why this signal means the S&P 500 is running out of steam, Wall Street strategist says
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The index is a closely watched measure of expected stock market volatility.</p>\n<p>“It is stunning to me how quickly the VIX has fallen, given the lack of a move higher the S&P 500 has seen,” he said. Kramer noted that on Nov. 3 the VIX was at 35.6 before taking 10 days to fall to 23, but this time around it has fallen from 37 to 23 in just six days. November’s VIX fall saw the S&P 500 rise more than 8% in the 10-day period, but the index has in comparison climbed just 3.3% this time. “Very different positioning in the market, I guess,” he added.</p>\n<p>“If the VIX is already at the bottom of the range, which as we have talked about in the past, is around 21 to 23, then the S&P 500 will not have enough energy to push it [to] new highs,” Kramer said.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher on Wednesday but Kramer said when broken down, it wasn’t a good day for the index, and in fact raised some concerns. “It actually wasn’t a strong day at all because the index reached 3,848 at the high, officially closing the gap from last week, and essentially turned lower as it finished at 3,830.</p>\n<p>“The gap-fill and the reversal could be a sign of trouble depicting what likely starts a gap fill lower on the SPX back to 3,785,” he said.</p>\n<p>The chart</p>\n<p>This chart from the Financial Times shows that the number of vaccine doses administered globally has reached the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644d35d918861aab3c6df3c278389188\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"724\">The markets</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks climbed in early trading following better-than-expected jobs data. futuresEuropean stocks also climbedas a number of corporate earnings sparked optimism over the recovery. Asian marketsretreated overnight, however, as caution began to set in.</p>\n<p>The buzz</p>\n<p>Genetic testing company 23andMe isgoing public via a mergerwith Richard Branson’s special purpose acquisition (SPAC) VG Acquisition CorpVGAC,+31.03%,in a deal with an enterprise value of about $3.5 billion, the companies said on Thursday.</p>\n<p>Elon Musk’s TwitterTWTR,+3.54%break didn’t last long. The cryptocurrency dogecoin surged more than 45% early on Thursday after the Tesla chief executivetweeted one word: “doge.”</p>\n<p>In an extraordinarily candid interview with engineering consultant Sandy Munro that aired on YouTube, Muskadvised against buyinga TeslaTSLA,-0.55%during a production ramp-up, agreeing with some criticism of the vehicles.</p>\n<p>NokiaNOKIA,-2.30%NOK,-7.02%stock slipped in early trading, as the telecoms giant beat profit expectations in the fourth quarter but warned 2021 would be achallenging year, with revenues expected to fall to between €20.6 billion and €21.8 billion from €21.9 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>Oil major Royal Dutch ShellRDSA,-2.01%RDS.A,-0.79%swung to a loss in the fourth quarter and its underlying performance was worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Technology giant AppleAAPL,+2.58%is close to a deal with car maker Hyundai-Kia to make an Apple-branded autonomous electric vehicle,CNBC reported late on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>PayPal’sPYPL,+7.36%profits tripledin the fourth quarter, fueled by accelerated adoption of digital payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock was 5.1% up in premarket trading.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why this signal means the S&P 500 is running out of steam, Wall Street strategist says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy this signal means the S&P 500 is running out of steam, Wall Street strategist says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-05 11:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-signal-means-the-s-p-500-is-running-out-of-steam-wall-street-strategist-says-11612440982?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is a lot going on and it’s sending the DowDJIA,+1.08%and S&P 500SPX,+1.09%toward a fourth straight day of gains.\nInvestors are digesting a deluge of corporate earnings, as well as key weekly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-signal-means-the-s-p-500-is-running-out-of-steam-wall-street-strategist-says-11612440982?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-signal-means-the-s-p-500-is-running-out-of-steam-wall-street-strategist-says-11612440982?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187584375","content_text":"There is a lot going on and it’s sending the DowDJIA,+1.08%and S&P 500SPX,+1.09%toward a fourth straight day of gains.\nInvestors are digesting a deluge of corporate earnings, as well as key weekly jobless claims data, showing the lowest number of claims since November.\nAnother event being keenly monitored by investors pertains to the recent GameStopGME,-42.11%frenzy, which has led to wild swings for stocks, including that videogames retailer and the cinema chain AMC EntertainmentAMC,-20.96%,throughusers on Reddit’sWallStreetBets forum.\nTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen isdue to hold a meetingwith the heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission todiscuss the recent volatility.\nU.S. stocks climbed, with the Dow gaining 280 points and the S&P 500 up 0.7% in morning trading.\nInour call of the day, Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management said U.S. stocks may be at the top end of the range with no more room to rise.\nKramer made the call after the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)VIX,-4.98%fell more than 10% on Wednesday, closing at 22.9. The index is a closely watched measure of expected stock market volatility.\n“It is stunning to me how quickly the VIX has fallen, given the lack of a move higher the S&P 500 has seen,” he said. Kramer noted that on Nov. 3 the VIX was at 35.6 before taking 10 days to fall to 23, but this time around it has fallen from 37 to 23 in just six days. November’s VIX fall saw the S&P 500 rise more than 8% in the 10-day period, but the index has in comparison climbed just 3.3% this time. “Very different positioning in the market, I guess,” he added.\n“If the VIX is already at the bottom of the range, which as we have talked about in the past, is around 21 to 23, then the S&P 500 will not have enough energy to push it [to] new highs,” Kramer said.\nThe S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher on Wednesday but Kramer said when broken down, it wasn’t a good day for the index, and in fact raised some concerns. “It actually wasn’t a strong day at all because the index reached 3,848 at the high, officially closing the gap from last week, and essentially turned lower as it finished at 3,830.\n“The gap-fill and the reversal could be a sign of trouble depicting what likely starts a gap fill lower on the SPX back to 3,785,” he said.\nThe chart\nThis chart from the Financial Times shows that the number of vaccine doses administered globally has reached the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide.\nThe markets\nU.S. stocks climbed in early trading following better-than-expected jobs data. futuresEuropean stocks also climbedas a number of corporate earnings sparked optimism over the recovery. Asian marketsretreated overnight, however, as caution began to set in.\nThe buzz\nGenetic testing company 23andMe isgoing public via a mergerwith Richard Branson’s special purpose acquisition (SPAC) VG Acquisition CorpVGAC,+31.03%,in a deal with an enterprise value of about $3.5 billion, the companies said on Thursday.\nElon Musk’s TwitterTWTR,+3.54%break didn’t last long. The cryptocurrency dogecoin surged more than 45% early on Thursday after the Tesla chief executivetweeted one word: “doge.”\nIn an extraordinarily candid interview with engineering consultant Sandy Munro that aired on YouTube, Muskadvised against buyinga TeslaTSLA,-0.55%during a production ramp-up, agreeing with some criticism of the vehicles.\nNokiaNOKIA,-2.30%NOK,-7.02%stock slipped in early trading, as the telecoms giant beat profit expectations in the fourth quarter but warned 2021 would be achallenging year, with revenues expected to fall to between €20.6 billion and €21.8 billion from €21.9 billion in 2020.\nOil major Royal Dutch ShellRDSA,-2.01%RDS.A,-0.79%swung to a loss in the fourth quarter and its underlying performance was worse than expected.\nTechnology giant AppleAAPL,+2.58%is close to a deal with car maker Hyundai-Kia to make an Apple-branded autonomous electric vehicle,CNBC reported late on Wednesday.\nPayPal’sPYPL,+7.36%profits tripledin the fourth quarter, fueled by accelerated adoption of digital payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock was 5.1% up in premarket trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/380052066"}
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