这篇文章不错，转发给_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@豌豆人：我帮luckin算了一笔账——财务分析小报告

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":378323,"tweetId":"378323","gmtCreate":1547474363433,"gmtModify":1704786734566,"author":{"id":65626969636701,"idStr":"65626969636701","authorId":65626969636701,"authorIdStr":"65626969636701","name":"宝言","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3bd90fa423834ebf8d36ef89701d4085","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</p></body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378323","repostId":378097,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":378097,"tweetId":"378097","gmtCreate":1547460830832,"gmtModify":1704786710078,"author":{"id":3510550084786744,"idStr":"3510550084786744","authorId":3510550084786744,"authorIdStr":"3510550084786744","name":"豌豆人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa697258c7eb120821aa5be8e508e71e","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"凯盛产业研究院院长，金融分析爱好者","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":102,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca815dc5b544ab91967c23077e38359"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55100cc697d7b77ac51eee7a09eb6f26"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b5253f60338fdb999d0a92a0432334"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975082a68661bf2e4d06fae14fae92ec"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0059273441d766ce64924be17007ae9c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eef4a0a337a3adac521fcf7401c0df8"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ab515a45be476dbf80809193ca2081"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7698b73897e15f7d411159e2e44b3a7"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/076e18b9191b42963e34dd08cef0f7d3"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74665e4c757fc2493b64826ccb459e15"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc6b9216e243a168df69a4b297366db"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d25f4ddfd502569c03920fc7cc9d64"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4931b2994f1a64d2bf3d4cb50c6495"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9cdb8027eec0fba345fc87ad0ad41d5"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed0eefac01b95195f3bb71cc1196158"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3388a2831bb2c7c78cc215e0d74a89f2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abdd0b12dca5b0dbc9e128c85da5c443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15dcfe9bbc6272d7247fa2a31b0314f4"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd47ca0e971a226714b81fc1f60f903"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c90cc9648ff3133c70ca4e7595b19bb6"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dff3680226f50f4d8c757a42b7971b24"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3f36f42daa493d6fec4a67d354c8f6"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980807ce630eb01f64122490e3b52e4f"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7734367ec59450cbcedec080ed6910"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ddbc8ae8f1ebcf55317fc3c718a7aba"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2768c9e25567cb63d78db83cb31e8"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8b3ad4a7399411e2203e9c3106a26c1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d7dc89272a72cc4230114a783b088c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc219da56ea907fd34d882bc4b9060f6"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca815dc5b544ab91967c23077e38359"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55100cc697d7b77ac51eee7a09eb6f26"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b5253f60338fdb999d0a92a0432334"}],"title":"我帮luckin算了一笔账——财务分析小报告","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>原创： 范杨 /豌豆人 </span> $瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ #瑞幸咖啡你喝吗#</p> <p>2018年很冷，但是有一家公司火的不得了，她叫瑞幸。</p> <p>这家公司成立1年，烧掉十多亿人民币，开了2000家店，宣称将用2年时间超越星巴克，B轮融资估值已经高达22亿美金。</p> <p>根据新闻，我们了解到一些数据：</p> <p>2018年前三季度，收入3.75亿元，亏损8.57亿元。</p> <p>2018年底门店数2073家，消费用户：1254万，累计销量：8968万杯，平均单杯售价：10.21元，单杯成本(不含管理费和销售费用）22元。</p> <p>瑞幸预计2018年收入7.63亿元，2019年开店2500家，收入目标39.5亿。</p> <p>2021年收入目标185亿元。</p> <p>虽然势头很盛，但是争论颇多，很多人认为这是下一个ofo。</p> <p>所以，我也花了点时间，来帮瑞幸算一笔帐，看看这家公司要满足什么条件的时候才能让她真的值这么多钱。</p> <p>分析的一些小结论：</p> <ol> \n <li><p>估计18年全年收入9.2亿，总亏损18亿元左右；</p></li> \n <li><p>这公司有效的定位可能不会是星巴克，而是金拱门；</p></li> \n <li><p>咖啡价格需要从现在的10.21元提升到17元以上才行；</p></li> \n <li><p>单杯成本从现在接近30元降低至16.3元是有可能的（虽然很难）；</p></li> \n <li><p>达到22亿美金目标之前，可能还需要烧掉107亿RMB，融资需求会持续很大；</p></li> \n <li><p>最终会不会成功，取决于投资者是否相信她能达到本文提及的主要假设条件。</p></li> \n</ol> <p><span style=\"color:rgba(255,60,0,1);\"><b>本文数据纯属YY</b></span>，仅供讨论所用。因此，欢迎留言讨论，哈哈~~~</p> <p>提示：手机建议点开图片浏览，左右滑动翻页，类似于PPT效果哦！<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7734367ec59450cbcedec080ed6910\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74665e4c757fc2493b64826ccb459e15\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dff3680226f50f4d8c757a42b7971b24\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ab515a45be476dbf80809193ca2081\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9cdb8027eec0fba345fc87ad0ad41d5\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15dcfe9bbc6272d7247fa2a31b0314f4\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abdd0b12dca5b0dbc9e128c85da5c443\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7698b73897e15f7d411159e2e44b3a7\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d25f4ddfd502569c03920fc7cc9d64\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca815dc5b544ab91967c23077e38359\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed0eefac01b95195f3bb71cc1196158\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55100cc697d7b77ac51eee7a09eb6f26\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0059273441d766ce64924be17007ae9c\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975082a68661bf2e4d06fae14fae92ec\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc6b9216e243a168df69a4b297366db\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4931b2994f1a64d2bf3d4cb50c6495\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd47ca0e971a226714b81fc1f60f903\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c90cc9648ff3133c70ca4e7595b19bb6\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2768c9e25567cb63d78db83cb31e8\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ddbc8ae8f1ebcf55317fc3c718a7aba\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3388a2831bb2c7c78cc215e0d74a89f2\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc219da56ea907fd34d882bc4b9060f6\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d7dc89272a72cc4230114a783b088c\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3f36f42daa493d6fec4a67d354c8f6\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/076e18b9191b42963e34dd08cef0f7d3\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eef4a0a337a3adac521fcf7401c0df8\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b5253f60338fdb999d0a92a0432334\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980807ce630eb01f64122490e3b52e4f\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8b3ad4a7399411e2203e9c3106a26c1\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>原创： 范杨 /豌豆人 </span> $瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ #瑞幸咖啡你喝吗#</p> <p>2018年很冷，但是有一家公司火的不得了，她叫瑞幸。</p> <p>这家公司成立1年，烧掉十多亿人民币，开了2000家店，宣称将用2年时间超越星巴克，B轮融资估值已经高达22亿美金。</p> <p>根据新闻，我们了解到一些数据：</p> <p>2018年前三季度，收入3.75亿元，亏损8.57亿元。</p> <p>2018年底门店数2073家，消费用户：1254万，累计销量：8968万杯，平均单杯售价：10.21元，单杯成本(不含管理费和销售费用）22元。</p> <p>瑞幸预计2018年收入7.63亿元，2019年开店2500家，收入目标39.5亿。</p> <p>2021年收入目标185亿元。</p> <p>虽然势头很盛，但是争论颇多，很多人认为这是下一个ofo。</p> <p>所以，我也花了点时间，来帮瑞幸算一笔帐，看看这家公司要满足什么条件的时候才能让她真的值这么多钱。</p> <p>分析的一些小结论：</p> <ol> \n <li><p>估计18年全年收入9.2亿，总亏损18亿元左右；</p></li> \n <li><p>这公司有效的定位可能不会是星巴克，而是金拱门；</p></li> \n <li><p>咖啡价格需要从现在的10.21元提升到17元以上才行；</p></li> \n <li><p>单杯成本从现在接近30元降低至16.3元是有可能的（虽然很难）；</p></li> \n <li><p>达到22亿美金目标之前，可能还需要烧掉107亿RMB，融资需求会持续很大；</p></li> \n <li><p>最终会不会成功，取决于投资者是否相信她能达到本文提及的主要假设条件。</p></li> \n</ol> <p><span style=\"color:rgba(255,60,0,1);\"><b>本文数据纯属YY</b></span>，仅供讨论所用。因此，欢迎留言讨论，哈哈~~~</p> <p>提示：手机建议点开图片浏览，左右滑动翻页，类似于PPT效果哦！<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7734367ec59450cbcedec080ed6910\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74665e4c757fc2493b64826ccb459e15\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dff3680226f50f4d8c757a42b7971b24\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ab515a45be476dbf80809193ca2081\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9cdb8027eec0fba345fc87ad0ad41d5\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15dcfe9bbc6272d7247fa2a31b0314f4\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abdd0b12dca5b0dbc9e128c85da5c443\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7698b73897e15f7d411159e2e44b3a7\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d25f4ddfd502569c03920fc7cc9d64\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca815dc5b544ab91967c23077e38359\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed0eefac01b95195f3bb71cc1196158\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55100cc697d7b77ac51eee7a09eb6f26\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0059273441d766ce64924be17007ae9c\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975082a68661bf2e4d06fae14fae92ec\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc6b9216e243a168df69a4b297366db\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4931b2994f1a64d2bf3d4cb50c6495\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd47ca0e971a226714b81fc1f60f903\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c90cc9648ff3133c70ca4e7595b19bb6\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2768c9e25567cb63d78db83cb31e8\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ddbc8ae8f1ebcf55317fc3c718a7aba\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3388a2831bb2c7c78cc215e0d74a89f2\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc219da56ea907fd34d882bc4b9060f6\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d7dc89272a72cc4230114a783b088c\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3f36f42daa493d6fec4a67d354c8f6\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/076e18b9191b42963e34dd08cef0f7d3\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eef4a0a337a3adac521fcf7401c0df8\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b5253f60338fdb999d0a92a0432334\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980807ce630eb01f64122490e3b52e4f\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8b3ad4a7399411e2203e9c3106a26c1\"></p></body></html>","text":"原创： 范杨 /豌豆人 $瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ #瑞幸咖啡你喝吗# 2018年很冷，但是有一家公司火的不得了，她叫瑞幸。 这家公司成立1年，烧掉十多亿人民币，开了2000家店，宣称将用2年时间超越星巴克，B轮融资估值已经高达22亿美金。 根据新闻，我们了解到一些数据： 2018年前三季度，收入3.75亿元，亏损8.57亿元。 2018年底门店数2073家，消费用户：1254万，累计销量：8968万杯，平均单杯售价：10.21元，单杯成本(不含管理费和销售费用）22元。 瑞幸预计2018年收入7.63亿元，2019年开店2500家，收入目标39.5亿。 2021年收入目标185亿元。 虽然势头很盛，但是争论颇多，很多人认为这是下一个ofo。 所以，我也花了点时间，来帮瑞幸算一笔帐，看看这家公司要满足什么条件的时候才能让她真的值这么多钱。 分析的一些小结论： 估计18年全年收入9.2亿，总亏损18亿元左右； 这公司有效的定位可能不会是星巴克，而是金拱门； 咖啡价格需要从现在的10.21元提升到17元以上才行； 单杯成本从现在接近30元降低至16.3元是有可能的（虽然很难）； 达到22亿美金目标之前，可能还需要烧掉107亿RMB，融资需求会持续很大； 最终会不会成功，取决于投资者是否相信她能达到本文提及的主要假设条件。 本文数据纯属YY，仅供讨论所用。因此，欢迎留言讨论，哈哈~~~ 提示：手机建议点开图片浏览，左右滑动翻页，类似于PPT效果哦！","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378097","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["LKNCY"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1032,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3283,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/378323"}