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2021-04-26
This fellow must be a shorter.
AMC: Bulls Are On The Wrong Side Of The Trade This Time
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":374621207,"tweetId":"374621207","gmtCreate":1619445088909,"gmtModify":1634273419596,"author":{"id":3575934289940082,"idStr":"3575934289940082","authorId":3575934289940082,"authorIdStr":"3575934289940082","name":"Questions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0190152f0bd2b9f9e6d1f153fc35114","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>This fellow must be a shorter. </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>This fellow must be a shorter. </p></body></html>","text":"This fellow must be a shorter.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374621207","repostId":1173310701,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173310701","pubTimestamp":1619334140,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173310701?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 15:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Bulls Are On The Wrong Side Of The Trade This Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173310701","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite being miraculously saved by public investors, AMC Entertainment still faces the ris","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Despite being miraculously saved by public investors, AMC Entertainment still faces the risk of bankruptcy next year.</li>\n <li>In addition, the weak environment, poor performance in pre-COVID-19 days, and an overleveraged balance sheet are making us believe that the growth of its stock is limited at this stage.</li>\n <li>We believe that it’s better to avoid AMC, as the short squeeze is likely to be over.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc624400829c07c5a0e00b0653abe163\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>Photo by Massimo Giachetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Despite being miraculously saved by public investors, AMC Entertainment (AMC) still faces the risk of bankruptcy next year. While its major shareholders such as Silver Lake and Wanda Group were able to cash out and sell their stakes in the business at a profit, there’s no guarantee that public investors will be able to do the same thing if AMC runs out of cash later on. The weak environment, poor performance in pre-COVID-19 days, and an overleveraged balance sheet are making us believe that the growth of its stock is limited at this stage, as the short squeeze is likely to be over.</p>\n<p><b>Bankruptcy is Still on the Table</b></p>\n<p>AMC is down over 40% since our last article on the company came out in late January and we believe that the stock has even more room to fall. The major problem of AMC is that it had entered the pandemic in a weak financial state and it will exit it in an even worse shape than before. Right now data shows that the company’s 3-year revenue CAGR is -37.46%, while its 3-year stock performance is -42.47%, and it’s unlikely that the situation will improve in the next couple of years.</p>\n<p>The reality is that AMC was on its way to bankruptcy, but it was able to extend its lifetime thanks to the help of public investors, who began to prop up its share price at the beginning of this year and executed a short squeeze, which pushed the company’s stock to new highs. However, while AMC was able to avoid insolvency, the major winners of this appreciation were big investors such as Silver Lake and Wanda Group, which were able to quickly profit from such a move and decrease their stakes in the company. As a result, public investors now own over 80% of the company’s stock, while institutions and the company’s insiders hold only ~10% and ~0.5% of the total equity in the company, respectively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111755e3bfea903a0e51c45485aeeece\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>The company’s latest earnings results show that the business is far away from returning to normalcy. In Q4 its revenues of $162.5 million were down 88.8% Y/Y, as its receipts and attendance were down 89% Y/Y and 91.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, its adjusted EBITDA for the period was -$327.5 million against $269.1 million a year ago, while its net loss in Q4 was -$946.1 million against a net loss of only -$13.5 million a year ago.</p>\n<p>Due to such a poor performance, AMC was able to survive solely through secondary offerings, which diluted its shareholders by around 330% in recent quarters. The company was able to raise ~$2.2 billion since the beginning of the pandemic, out of which ~$1 billion was raised in the last few months when its stock began to appreciate on heavy volume. However, that liquidity might not be enough in the long-term to avoid bankruptcy, since in 2020 alone the business had over $300 in annual interest expenses and by the end of the year, it had over $5 billion in debt. While during normal times, AMC would’ve been able to service that debt and deleverage its balance sheet by driving sales and generating positive FCF, it’s unlikely that it’ll be able to do so in the current environment since its business in the next couple of years is projected to not to return to its 2019 levels.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b95811a0d70a28646d816e042f448373\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"368\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>AMC will not be able to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels anytime soon simply due to the fact that a large group of consumers will now prefer to watch movies on their big screens at home rather than go to an enclosed public space and risk getting sick. Considering that some major production companies recently decided to distribute their movies via streaming platforms the same day those movies are released in cinemas, it’s hard to imagine how the overall theater business will be able to recover in the foreseeable future. With such a change in consumer habits, it’s unlikely that AMC will be able to improve its top-line performance and generate positive FCF to decrease its high debt burden.</p>\n<p>Another downside of AMC is that there’s still a possibility that it could become insolvent next year. In its latest 10-K filing the company said that its capacity needs to be at ~90% of pre-COVID-19 levels in the next few quarters in order to not run out of cash next year. Considering that the street expects the company to perform poorly in the near term, it’s unlikely that AMC will be able to reach such capacity levels and improve its operational performance, so there’s every reason to believe that it’ll be looking for additional liquidity. If AMC is unable to find enough liquidity, then the restructuring of its debt will take place. Here’s what the company has stated in its 10-K filing:</p>\n<blockquote>\n If such additional liquidity were not realized or insufficient we likely would seek an in-court or out-of-court restructuring of our liabilities, and in the event of such future liquidation or bankruptcy proceeding, holders of our common stock and other securities would likely suffer a total loss of their investment.\n</blockquote>\n<p>One way AMC could raise liquidity is by issuing new shares and continuing to dilute its shareholders as it did in the last few quarters. Recently it was announced that the management of AMC will ask its investors to authorize it to issue additional 500 million shares during the upcoming annual investors' conference in May. While the company’s CEO pledged not to offer those shares in 2021, there’s every reason to believe that a dilution will happen next year since the overall business is not going to recover in the next few months. However, the problem is that public investors now control most of the company’s shares, so there’s a risk that the majority of them decide to vote against the authorization to issue new shares in order to prevent a depreciation of the company’s stock. On top of that, it will be significantly harder for public investors to execute another short squeeze with so many new shares outstanding.</p>\n<p>Considering all of this, we believe that the bankruptcy of AMC is still on the table, as the company might be unable to improve its top-line performance and generate positive FCF to service its debt in the foreseeable future. With a street price target of only $4.44 per share, we believe that AMC’s upside at this stage is limited and investing in the company’s shares is not worth it due to the high opportunity cost and poor risk/reward ratio.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b1c4ed91a1ced9f50ea9677faf9375\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"146\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Bulls Are On The Wrong Side Of The Trade This Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Bulls Are On The Wrong Side Of The Trade This Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 15:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421042-amc-bulls-on-wrong-side-of-trade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite being miraculously saved by public investors, AMC Entertainment still faces the risk of bankruptcy next year.\nIn addition, the weak environment, poor performance in pre-COVID-19 days,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421042-amc-bulls-on-wrong-side-of-trade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421042-amc-bulls-on-wrong-side-of-trade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1173310701","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite being miraculously saved by public investors, AMC Entertainment still faces the risk of bankruptcy next year.\nIn addition, the weak environment, poor performance in pre-COVID-19 days, and an overleveraged balance sheet are making us believe that the growth of its stock is limited at this stage.\nWe believe that it’s better to avoid AMC, as the short squeeze is likely to be over.\n\nPhoto by Massimo Giachetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nDespite being miraculously saved by public investors, AMC Entertainment (AMC) still faces the risk of bankruptcy next year. While its major shareholders such as Silver Lake and Wanda Group were able to cash out and sell their stakes in the business at a profit, there’s no guarantee that public investors will be able to do the same thing if AMC runs out of cash later on. The weak environment, poor performance in pre-COVID-19 days, and an overleveraged balance sheet are making us believe that the growth of its stock is limited at this stage, as the short squeeze is likely to be over.\nBankruptcy is Still on the Table\nAMC is down over 40% since our last article on the company came out in late January and we believe that the stock has even more room to fall. The major problem of AMC is that it had entered the pandemic in a weak financial state and it will exit it in an even worse shape than before. Right now data shows that the company’s 3-year revenue CAGR is -37.46%, while its 3-year stock performance is -42.47%, and it’s unlikely that the situation will improve in the next couple of years.\nThe reality is that AMC was on its way to bankruptcy, but it was able to extend its lifetime thanks to the help of public investors, who began to prop up its share price at the beginning of this year and executed a short squeeze, which pushed the company’s stock to new highs. However, while AMC was able to avoid insolvency, the major winners of this appreciation were big investors such as Silver Lake and Wanda Group, which were able to quickly profit from such a move and decrease their stakes in the company. As a result, public investors now own over 80% of the company’s stock, while institutions and the company’s insiders hold only ~10% and ~0.5% of the total equity in the company, respectively.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nThe company’s latest earnings results show that the business is far away from returning to normalcy. In Q4 its revenues of $162.5 million were down 88.8% Y/Y, as its receipts and attendance were down 89% Y/Y and 91.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, its adjusted EBITDA for the period was -$327.5 million against $269.1 million a year ago, while its net loss in Q4 was -$946.1 million against a net loss of only -$13.5 million a year ago.\nDue to such a poor performance, AMC was able to survive solely through secondary offerings, which diluted its shareholders by around 330% in recent quarters. The company was able to raise ~$2.2 billion since the beginning of the pandemic, out of which ~$1 billion was raised in the last few months when its stock began to appreciate on heavy volume. However, that liquidity might not be enough in the long-term to avoid bankruptcy, since in 2020 alone the business had over $300 in annual interest expenses and by the end of the year, it had over $5 billion in debt. While during normal times, AMC would’ve been able to service that debt and deleverage its balance sheet by driving sales and generating positive FCF, it’s unlikely that it’ll be able to do so in the current environment since its business in the next couple of years is projected to not to return to its 2019 levels.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAMC will not be able to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels anytime soon simply due to the fact that a large group of consumers will now prefer to watch movies on their big screens at home rather than go to an enclosed public space and risk getting sick. Considering that some major production companies recently decided to distribute their movies via streaming platforms the same day those movies are released in cinemas, it’s hard to imagine how the overall theater business will be able to recover in the foreseeable future. With such a change in consumer habits, it’s unlikely that AMC will be able to improve its top-line performance and generate positive FCF to decrease its high debt burden.\nAnother downside of AMC is that there’s still a possibility that it could become insolvent next year. In its latest 10-K filing the company said that its capacity needs to be at ~90% of pre-COVID-19 levels in the next few quarters in order to not run out of cash next year. Considering that the street expects the company to perform poorly in the near term, it’s unlikely that AMC will be able to reach such capacity levels and improve its operational performance, so there’s every reason to believe that it’ll be looking for additional liquidity. If AMC is unable to find enough liquidity, then the restructuring of its debt will take place. Here’s what the company has stated in its 10-K filing:\n\n If such additional liquidity were not realized or insufficient we likely would seek an in-court or out-of-court restructuring of our liabilities, and in the event of such future liquidation or bankruptcy proceeding, holders of our common stock and other securities would likely suffer a total loss of their investment.\n\nOne way AMC could raise liquidity is by issuing new shares and continuing to dilute its shareholders as it did in the last few quarters. Recently it was announced that the management of AMC will ask its investors to authorize it to issue additional 500 million shares during the upcoming annual investors' conference in May. While the company’s CEO pledged not to offer those shares in 2021, there’s every reason to believe that a dilution will happen next year since the overall business is not going to recover in the next few months. However, the problem is that public investors now control most of the company’s shares, so there’s a risk that the majority of them decide to vote against the authorization to issue new shares in order to prevent a depreciation of the company’s stock. On top of that, it will be significantly harder for public investors to execute another short squeeze with so many new shares outstanding.\nConsidering all of this, we believe that the bankruptcy of AMC is still on the table, as the company might be unable to improve its top-line performance and generate positive FCF to service its debt in the foreseeable future. With a street price target of only $4.44 per share, we believe that AMC’s upside at this stage is limited and investing in the company’s shares is not worth it due to the high opportunity cost and poor risk/reward ratio.\nSource: Seeking Alpha","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/374621207"}
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