geraldwwx
2021-04-20
Ex in the short run, cheap in the long run
Tesla: 3 Key Earnings Questions
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There is the potential for this to be a very noisy quarterly report given what happened throughout the quarter, so we could be in store for a lot of one-time items. With the stock having rebounded a bit in recent weeks, investors are looking for significant signs of p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Margins in focus after unusual quarter and China factory ramp.</li>\n <li>Investors expecting guidance update given Q1 deliveries.</li>\n <li>Robo-taxi situation still unclear as autopilot data weakens.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3c3ad04a2f4463c75b7cee0a91bb23\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"793\"><span>Photo by AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>All eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) next Monday as the company reports earnings after the bell. There is the potential for this to be a very noisy quarterly report given what happened throughout the quarter, so we could be in store for a lot of one-time items. With the stock having rebounded a bit in recent weeks, investors are looking for significant signs of progress and a major update on the yearly forecast.</p>\n<p>While expectations dipped throughout the quarter, Tesla ended up with a preliminary delivery record of 184,800 vehicles for Q1 2021, up a little more than 4,000 units sequentially. However, that was all due to sales of the Model 3/Y increasing by more than 21,000 units from Q4, as there were only about 2,000 S/X units sold. Despite Elon Musk's statement on the Q4 conference call, as well as his tweets that the new versions of the S/X were already in production and deliveries would start in February, those new vehicles didn't make it to customers during Q1. Investors will be looking for an explanation as to what happened that caused Model S/X production to be zero for the quarter, and what the status is there as we are a number of weeks into Q2.</p>\n<p>As for the headline financials, everyone will be comparing the major results to the Q4 figures that Tesla reported. For that period, total revenues were just above $10.74 billion. Of that, more than $9.31 billion came from automotive revenues, with $401 million of that being regulatory revenue credits sales. Tesla had automotive GAAP gross margins of 25.6%, but when excluding those highly profitable credit sales, non-GAAP margins were just 21.0%. Tesla delivered GAAP net income of $270 million, or $0.24 per share, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.80.</p>\n<p>As I discussed in my most recent Tesla article, my main focus will be on the company's margins this quarter. If overall revenues are close to the street average, say within $100 million without any major surprises like credit sales, I won't make a big deal about the top line. Gross margins are more in focus given a number of price cuts early in the quarter, some price increases later in the quarter, the China Model Y ramp, and increases in key commodity prices. If Tesla can keep its margin profile close to that of Q4, then expectations for long term increased profitability will probably remain elevated. As I usually do, the table below shows my three cases for what results could look like. Dollar values are in millions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e25d8b7ec8932fe0c7b8ee2557cf99\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"577\"></p>\n<p>I'm not expecting any major surprises here for the first quarter, as I'm a little below the current street average for revenues but higher on the bottom line. If management was correct that there were a number of one-time items that dragged down Q4 profitability, then I think Tesla will be a little better off on its expense structure than analysts are expecting. Of course, credit sales are always a wildcard, and the Model S/X situation could complicate things a bit. As a point of reference, the numbers above exclude any potential gains from the sales of Bitcoin, which could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars or even more if Tesla sold some of or even all of its position during the quarter.</p>\n<p>The second major item to watch is the yearly forecast. While management called for deliveries of over 750,000 for 2021, investors are looking for a lot more than that, especially after the Q1 figures. With even a very modest contribution from the S/X in Q2, the next stage of the Made in China Model Y ramp should easily get deliveries over 200k in this quarter. The table below shows Tesla's installed capacity update from its prior reports along with actual production reported.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a285f38669d7589e5d24de12393541a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\"><span>Source: Tesla quarterly reports on IR site</span></p>\n<p>Over the last three quarters, Tesla has been running production at about 94% of the previous earnings report's four quarter rolling average for total production capacity (annual figure divided by four). Extrapolating out at say 95% for the rest of the year with no additional capacity increases puts Tesla at about 882,000 units, and that doesn't include any help from the new factories in Berlin or Texas. Thus, even if you take out a few thousand units for the slow S/X ramp and assume nothing from those two places, Tesla should be able to produce at least 875,000 units for the year. Realistically, the number should be closer to 900,000 unless there are any major problems, so the yearly delivery forecast really should be in the high 800k area. Whether or not management does give us a concrete number or even an approximation is uncertain, however.</p>\n<p>The final item I'll be watching for is for a major update on Tesla's autonomy progress. Elon Musk's statement of a million robo-taxis on the road in 2020 obviously didn't pan out, and some have suggested the company will launch an Uber (UBER) like driver based ride hailing service soon. Late last week, Tesla released its Q1 vehicle safety report, and the results were a bit underwhelming. For the first time since releasing this data, the year over year Autopilot data worsened, with the number of miles per crash coming down by nearly 10.5% from Q1 2020. Another horrible deadly crash over the weekend has put the company in the spotlight again, and not in a good way. Tesla's self-driving ambitions are a big reason why investors have been bidding up this stock, but the program continues to fall behind almost every timeline that Elon Musk has put out there.</p>\n<p>Tesla shares go into this earnings report at an interesting time. As the chart below shows, they spent nearly two months below their 50-day moving average (green line) before getting above it recently. Should shares drop after earnings, this key technical level would likely continue its fall at a brisk pace, increasing the chance of a death cross happening in a couple of months. On the flip side, a positive earnings reaction could get the 50-day line moving higher and help to form a support base.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e377e2082619305a6d2a94ef9d07df50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>In the end, Tesla's earnings report next week will certainly be an interesting one. This has the potential to be a very noisy report, given no Model S/X production and potentially large Bitcoin gains. I'll be most focusing on margins as the Model Y started to ramp in China, and we saw numerous price changes during the quarter. Now that almost a third of the year is done, investors will be waiting to see if management gives a more concrete yearly delivery forecast, with expectations rising after Q1's print. Finally, questions over autonomy plans will only grow as autopilot statistics weakened and another high profile crash occurred. While Tesla shares are still well off their all-time highs, they've rebounded a bit in recent weeks to get above a key technical level recently.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: 3 Key Earnings Questions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: 3 Key Earnings Questions\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 15:13 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419885-tesla-3-key-earnings-questions><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMargins in focus after unusual quarter and China factory ramp.\nInvestors expecting guidance update given Q1 deliveries.\nRobo-taxi situation still unclear as autopilot data weakens.\n\nPhoto by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419885-tesla-3-key-earnings-questions\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419885-tesla-3-key-earnings-questions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1186349790","content_text":"Summary\n\nMargins in focus after unusual quarter and China factory ramp.\nInvestors expecting guidance update given Q1 deliveries.\nRobo-taxi situation still unclear as autopilot data weakens.\n\nPhoto by AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAll eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) next Monday as the company reports earnings after the bell. There is the potential for this to be a very noisy quarterly report given what happened throughout the quarter, so we could be in store for a lot of one-time items. With the stock having rebounded a bit in recent weeks, investors are looking for significant signs of progress and a major update on the yearly forecast.\nWhile expectations dipped throughout the quarter, Tesla ended up with a preliminary delivery record of 184,800 vehicles for Q1 2021, up a little more than 4,000 units sequentially. However, that was all due to sales of the Model 3/Y increasing by more than 21,000 units from Q4, as there were only about 2,000 S/X units sold. Despite Elon Musk's statement on the Q4 conference call, as well as his tweets that the new versions of the S/X were already in production and deliveries would start in February, those new vehicles didn't make it to customers during Q1. Investors will be looking for an explanation as to what happened that caused Model S/X production to be zero for the quarter, and what the status is there as we are a number of weeks into Q2.\nAs for the headline financials, everyone will be comparing the major results to the Q4 figures that Tesla reported. For that period, total revenues were just above $10.74 billion. Of that, more than $9.31 billion came from automotive revenues, with $401 million of that being regulatory revenue credits sales. Tesla had automotive GAAP gross margins of 25.6%, but when excluding those highly profitable credit sales, non-GAAP margins were just 21.0%. Tesla delivered GAAP net income of $270 million, or $0.24 per share, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.80.\nAs I discussed in my most recent Tesla article, my main focus will be on the company's margins this quarter. If overall revenues are close to the street average, say within $100 million without any major surprises like credit sales, I won't make a big deal about the top line. Gross margins are more in focus given a number of price cuts early in the quarter, some price increases later in the quarter, the China Model Y ramp, and increases in key commodity prices. If Tesla can keep its margin profile close to that of Q4, then expectations for long term increased profitability will probably remain elevated. As I usually do, the table below shows my three cases for what results could look like. Dollar values are in millions.\n\nI'm not expecting any major surprises here for the first quarter, as I'm a little below the current street average for revenues but higher on the bottom line. If management was correct that there were a number of one-time items that dragged down Q4 profitability, then I think Tesla will be a little better off on its expense structure than analysts are expecting. Of course, credit sales are always a wildcard, and the Model S/X situation could complicate things a bit. As a point of reference, the numbers above exclude any potential gains from the sales of Bitcoin, which could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars or even more if Tesla sold some of or even all of its position during the quarter.\nThe second major item to watch is the yearly forecast. While management called for deliveries of over 750,000 for 2021, investors are looking for a lot more than that, especially after the Q1 figures. With even a very modest contribution from the S/X in Q2, the next stage of the Made in China Model Y ramp should easily get deliveries over 200k in this quarter. The table below shows Tesla's installed capacity update from its prior reports along with actual production reported.\nSource: Tesla quarterly reports on IR site\nOver the last three quarters, Tesla has been running production at about 94% of the previous earnings report's four quarter rolling average for total production capacity (annual figure divided by four). Extrapolating out at say 95% for the rest of the year with no additional capacity increases puts Tesla at about 882,000 units, and that doesn't include any help from the new factories in Berlin or Texas. Thus, even if you take out a few thousand units for the slow S/X ramp and assume nothing from those two places, Tesla should be able to produce at least 875,000 units for the year. Realistically, the number should be closer to 900,000 unless there are any major problems, so the yearly delivery forecast really should be in the high 800k area. Whether or not management does give us a concrete number or even an approximation is uncertain, however.\nThe final item I'll be watching for is for a major update on Tesla's autonomy progress. Elon Musk's statement of a million robo-taxis on the road in 2020 obviously didn't pan out, and some have suggested the company will launch an Uber (UBER) like driver based ride hailing service soon. Late last week, Tesla released its Q1 vehicle safety report, and the results were a bit underwhelming. For the first time since releasing this data, the year over year Autopilot data worsened, with the number of miles per crash coming down by nearly 10.5% from Q1 2020. Another horrible deadly crash over the weekend has put the company in the spotlight again, and not in a good way. Tesla's self-driving ambitions are a big reason why investors have been bidding up this stock, but the program continues to fall behind almost every timeline that Elon Musk has put out there.\nTesla shares go into this earnings report at an interesting time. As the chart below shows, they spent nearly two months below their 50-day moving average (green line) before getting above it recently. Should shares drop after earnings, this key technical level would likely continue its fall at a brisk pace, increasing the chance of a death cross happening in a couple of months. On the flip side, a positive earnings reaction could get the 50-day line moving higher and help to form a support base.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nIn the end, Tesla's earnings report next week will certainly be an interesting one. This has the potential to be a very noisy report, given no Model S/X production and potentially large Bitcoin gains. I'll be most focusing on margins as the Model Y started to ramp in China, and we saw numerous price changes during the quarter. Now that almost a third of the year is done, investors will be waiting to see if management gives a more concrete yearly delivery forecast, with expectations rising after Q1's print. Finally, questions over autonomy plans will only grow as autopilot statistics weakened and another high profile crash occurred. While Tesla shares are still well off their all-time highs, they've rebounded a bit in recent weeks to get above a key technical level recently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371863933"}
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