HighOnCoffee
2021-04-20
tough but possible with interest rates that low
What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP,发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":371361096,"tweetId":"371361096","gmtCreate":1618912119915,"gmtModify":1634289965614,"author":{"id":3581757014858199,"idStr":"3581757014858199","authorId":3581757014858199,"authorIdStr":"3581757014858199","name":"HighOnCoffee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712f5ae709a47658c3b8b2ed5c5af556","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>tough but possible with interest rates that low</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>tough but possible with interest rates that low</p></body></html>","text":"tough but possible with interest rates that low","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371361096","repostId":1187184850,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187184850","pubTimestamp":1618910509,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187184850?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 17:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187184850","media":"Barrons","summary":"Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 418","content":"<p>Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?</p>\n<p>Maybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.</p>\n<p>Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567703bbb342a32ba9b589693275f77e\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"637\"></p>\n<p>Of course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a5141150f90aae35b86bd7313edc48\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"639\"></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 17:21 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187184850","content_text":"Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?\nMaybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.\nTom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.\n\nOf course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371361096"}
精彩评论