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2021-04-20

Still overpriced

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":371095660,"tweetId":"371095660","gmtCreate":1618889980750,"gmtModify":1634290108381,"author":{"id":3576653688169426,"idStr":"3576653688169426","authorId":3576653688169426,"authorIdStr":"3576653688169426","name":"Lely84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f149aed6f506c1cee71310cc6dbf2c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":39,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Still overpriced</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Still overpriced</body></html>","text":"Still overpriced","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371095660","repostId":1130788275,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130788275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618477264,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130788275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Solid Compounder And Cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130788275","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite coming away from a very strong 2020, its 2021 prospects look incredibly enticing.\nP","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Despite coming away from a very strong 2020, its 2021 prospects look incredibly enticing.</li>\n <li>PayPal successfully balances revenue growth with an eye towards strong free cash flow generation, with 2021 expected to reach $6 billion.</li>\n <li>Presently, investors are asked to pay just 13x forward sales, which is very cheaply valued for a company with such strong secular tailwinds and a long history of strong execution.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80c1d433b8657fa52ac661162fd55\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"505\">Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal's (PYPL) stock has lost some momentum over the past couple of months.\nBut, as we appraise the company holistically, we are left with a very strong compounding asset that's investing for growth, all the while oozing free cash flow, which is expected to reach $6 billion in 2021. Meanwhile, PayPal continues to rapidly grow its market share of not only digital payments but offline solutions too.\nPaying up 13x forward sales for PayPal is by no stretch an exuberant valuation. This investment is worthwhile considering.\nRevenue Growth Rates And Market Sentiment\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cf50d657cdef70f35e0b2bd7a05429\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\">Data by YCharts\nThe past two months, PayPal, together with its peer, Square (SQ), has lost some momentum. Indeed, there's been broad apathy by investors towards growth stocks of late.\nOr perhaps, better said, 2020 delivered such strong gains in tech that investors had become complacent, and enamored with growth narratives and ''digital acceleration'' stories.\nThen, investors started to realize,at last, that tech stocks can't grow to the sky, and there's been a retracement amongst tech stocks.\nHaving said all that, I believe that discerning investors may take solace in the fact that investing through a mild tech correction is absolutely the right investment strategy because there's a lot to be excited about PayPal right now:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd316f506428376080776cdd9ae2410\" tg-width=\"1245\" tg-height=\"559\">Source: Author's work\nAs you can see above, pre-COVID, PayPal wasn't much of a growth story, it was more of a steady compounder ticking along in the high teens of revenue growth rates, but not quite consistently clearing the 20s% y/y revenue growth rates (asides from 2017, when its growth rate reached 21% y/y).\nHowever, 2020 proved to be a terrific year for PayPal, as the company put up a very strong performance demonstrating that it was, evidently, well-positioned to embrace the secular tailwinds that emerged.\nThe question that investors have to address, whether these tailwinds are here to stay or will they dwindle back down? And I firmly contend it's the former.\nBullish View: Strong Tailwinds Are Here to Stay\nIn the past several months, PayPal has made yet another strong push towards facilitating digital payments. Most notably, PayPal is now more focused than ever on in-store payment solutions for merchants.\nWhat PayPal is attempting to do is grow the reach of its digital wallet,Venmo, so that there's a convergence between the online and offline world. For example, customers can use PayPal's Buy Now Pay Later offering, allowing for a seamless commerce enablement solution.\nFurther, as the economy reopens, retailers are being left with the choice of either embracing serving their customers on an omni-basis and optimizing their payment solutions, or being left behind - it's a simple dichotomy.\nIndeed, despite adding&nbsp;73 million new active accounts&nbsp;in 2020, its guidance for the year ahead is for adding a further&nbsp;50 million active&nbsp;accounts in 2021.\nAltogether, this would put PayPal's active accounts well clear of 425 million people. This is important because it's evidence that the pick-up in accounts during 2020 are not churning out to any large extent, and this is obviously highly accretive to PayPal's bottom-line profitability.\nMoreover, as we look further ahead, these extra accounts in 2021 put PayPal ever closer to its 2025 target of having 750 million active accounts.\nValuation - Why This Stock is Cheaply Valued\nAt the most superficial level, PayPal is being valued at 13x forward sales, and this puts the stock trading level with Square.\nYes, Square is reporting much stronger growth rates, but we have to keep in mind that a substantial amount of Square's revenue is balanced with&nbsp;equal costs, as the bulk of its revenue is derived from cryptocurrencies.\nIndeed, as you know, Square now has practically stopped discussing its revenue growth rates and has instead opted to navigate shareholders through its&nbsp;gross profits&nbsp;growth story.\nIndeed, I declare that the biggest advantage that PayPal has versus Square is that PayPal is a very strong free cash flow generating company.\nWhat's more, for 2021, PayPal is guiding for $6 billion of free cash flow, which, on the surface, isn't too cheap, as it implies that its stock is trading for 54x forward this year's free cash flow.\nOn the other hand, it's important to keep in mind that PayPal isnowhere near a mature companythat's intent on maximizing cash flows. On the contrary, as we've already discussed, PayPal is steadfast in growing and expanding its reach, making digital payments highly efficient.\nThe Bottom Line\nInvestors have unjustifiably turned away from PayPal. Investors have seen so many tech stocks move quickly these past couple of months, that they felt compelled towards \"action,\" as if action was in any way commensurate with wealth creation.\nInvestors would do well to consider PayPal and sit tight, letting their highly free cash flow-generating asset compound over time.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Solid Compounder And Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Solid Compounder And Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418991-paypal-solid-compounder-and-cheap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nDespite coming away from a very strong 2020, its 2021 prospects look incredibly enticing.\nPayPal successfully balances revenue growth with an eye towards strong free cash flow generation, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418991-paypal-solid-compounder-and-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418991-paypal-solid-compounder-and-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130788275","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite coming away from a very strong 2020, its 2021 prospects look incredibly enticing.\nPayPal successfully balances revenue growth with an eye towards strong free cash flow generation, with 2021 expected to reach $6 billion.\nPresently, investors are asked to pay just 13x forward sales, which is very cheaply valued for a company with such strong secular tailwinds and a long history of strong execution.\n\nPhoto by Sean Gallup/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal's (PYPL) stock has lost some momentum over the past couple of months.\nBut, as we appraise the company holistically, we are left with a very strong compounding asset that's investing for growth, all the while oozing free cash flow, which is expected to reach $6 billion in 2021. Meanwhile, PayPal continues to rapidly grow its market share of not only digital payments but offline solutions too.\nPaying up 13x forward sales for PayPal is by no stretch an exuberant valuation. This investment is worthwhile considering.\nRevenue Growth Rates And Market Sentiment\nData by YCharts\nThe past two months, PayPal, together with its peer, Square (SQ), has lost some momentum. Indeed, there's been broad apathy by investors towards growth stocks of late.\nOr perhaps, better said, 2020 delivered such strong gains in tech that investors had become complacent, and enamored with growth narratives and ''digital acceleration'' stories.\nThen, investors started to realize,at last, that tech stocks can't grow to the sky, and there's been a retracement amongst tech stocks.\nHaving said all that, I believe that discerning investors may take solace in the fact that investing through a mild tech correction is absolutely the right investment strategy because there's a lot to be excited about PayPal right now:\nSource: Author's work\nAs you can see above, pre-COVID, PayPal wasn't much of a growth story, it was more of a steady compounder ticking along in the high teens of revenue growth rates, but not quite consistently clearing the 20s% y/y revenue growth rates (asides from 2017, when its growth rate reached 21% y/y).\nHowever, 2020 proved to be a terrific year for PayPal, as the company put up a very strong performance demonstrating that it was, evidently, well-positioned to embrace the secular tailwinds that emerged.\nThe question that investors have to address, whether these tailwinds are here to stay or will they dwindle back down? And I firmly contend it's the former.\nBullish View: Strong Tailwinds Are Here to Stay\nIn the past several months, PayPal has made yet another strong push towards facilitating digital payments. Most notably, PayPal is now more focused than ever on in-store payment solutions for merchants.\nWhat PayPal is attempting to do is grow the reach of its digital wallet,Venmo, so that there's a convergence between the online and offline world. For example, customers can use PayPal's Buy Now Pay Later offering, allowing for a seamless commerce enablement solution.\nFurther, as the economy reopens, retailers are being left with the choice of either embracing serving their customers on an omni-basis and optimizing their payment solutions, or being left behind - it's a simple dichotomy.\nIndeed, despite adding 73 million new active accounts in 2020, its guidance for the year ahead is for adding a further 50 million active accounts in 2021.\nAltogether, this would put PayPal's active accounts well clear of 425 million people. This is important because it's evidence that the pick-up in accounts during 2020 are not churning out to any large extent, and this is obviously highly accretive to PayPal's bottom-line profitability.\nMoreover, as we look further ahead, these extra accounts in 2021 put PayPal ever closer to its 2025 target of having 750 million active accounts.\nValuation - Why This Stock is Cheaply Valued\nAt the most superficial level, PayPal is being valued at 13x forward sales, and this puts the stock trading level with Square.\nYes, Square is reporting much stronger growth rates, but we have to keep in mind that a substantial amount of Square's revenue is balanced with equal costs, as the bulk of its revenue is derived from cryptocurrencies.\nIndeed, as you know, Square now has practically stopped discussing its revenue growth rates and has instead opted to navigate shareholders through its gross profits growth story.\nIndeed, I declare that the biggest advantage that PayPal has versus Square is that PayPal is a very strong free cash flow generating company.\nWhat's more, for 2021, PayPal is guiding for $6 billion of free cash flow, which, on the surface, isn't too cheap, as it implies that its stock is trading for 54x forward this year's free cash flow.\nOn the other hand, it's important to keep in mind that PayPal isnowhere near a mature companythat's intent on maximizing cash flows. On the contrary, as we've already discussed, PayPal is steadfast in growing and expanding its reach, making digital payments highly efficient.\nThe Bottom Line\nInvestors have unjustifiably turned away from PayPal. Investors have seen so many tech stocks move quickly these past couple of months, that they felt compelled towards \"action,\" as if action was in any way commensurate with wealth creation.\nInvestors would do well to consider PayPal and sit tight, letting their highly free cash flow-generating asset compound over time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371095660"}