AAA123
2021-02-23
PLTR成立这么多年，如果会成为谷歌一样的公司早就实现了，还要等到什么时候?
Palantir: Estimates And Expectations
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":369769708,"tweetId":"369769708","gmtCreate":1614076507304,"gmtModify":1614076507304,"author":{"id":3543970677915320,"idStr":"3543970677915320","authorId":3543970677915320,"authorIdStr":"3543970677915320","name":"AAA123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f2a2bc8164c45e321a0880216ba7c1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>\nPLTR成立这么多年，如果会成为谷歌一样的公司早就实现了，还要等到什么时候?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>\nPLTR成立这么多年，如果会成为谷歌一样的公司早就实现了，还要等到什么时候?</body></html>","text":"PLTR成立这么多年，如果会成为谷歌一样的公司早就实现了，还要等到什么时候?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369769708","repostId":1149321056,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149321056","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613976796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149321056?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Estimates And Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149321056","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir has all the characteristics of a great business.</li>\n <li>Let's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?</li>\n <li>The market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.</li>\n <li>At a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Overview of Palantir</b></p>\n<p>PLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.</p>\n<p>PLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.</p>\n<p>As a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.</p>\n<p>Finally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?</p>\n<p><b>FAANGM Performance as a Benchmark</b></p>\n<p>To get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1794cd64edb9d2cf465bd93ca4613257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)</span></p>\n<p>I wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Using the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.</p>\n<p>What scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a98f252b09771038babb2096895962\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"627\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Another option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75d86a5b8ac1fd5b09bdfe1e607580b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f249ea7966b4bc3fed90d01c49c315\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>The primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.</p>\n<p><b>Caveats and Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.</p>\n<p>The second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Estimates And Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Estimates And Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 14:53 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149321056","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\nThe market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.\nAt a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.\n\nPalantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.\nA Quick Overview of Palantir\nPLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.\nPLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.\nAs a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.\nFinally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?\nFAANGM Performance as a Benchmark\nTo get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)\nI wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.\nPalantir Valuation Scenarios\nUsing the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.\nWhat scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nAnother option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nFinally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nThe primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.\nCaveats and Risks\nThere are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.\nThe second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"\nConclusion\nIt is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GOOGL","GOOG"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":69,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/369769708"}
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