Shawnbro
2021-02-23
Best time to buy
Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":363070417,"tweetId":"363070417","gmtCreate":1614087417340,"gmtModify":1634551234038,"author":{"id":3569136932737111,"idStr":"3569136932737111","authorId":3569136932737111,"authorIdStr":"3569136932737111","name":"Shawnbro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30564a1f09407b3b32cf9141b969be9d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Best time to buy</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Best time to buy</p></body></html>","text":"Best time to buy","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363070417","repostId":1107213324,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107213324","pubTimestamp":1614076514,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107213324?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 18:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107213324","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treas","content":"<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-23 18:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107213324","content_text":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.RAYMOND JAMES“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/363070417"}
精彩评论