Jonk
2021-03-22
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Apple: The Deeper It Digs, The Better The Opportunity
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Also, history suggests that buying dips will likely prove to be a profitable trade.</li>\n <li>While stocks undergoing a correction can behave erratically in the near term, a bullish move on Apple at today's levels seems quite reasonable.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6643ffe4604e7a80928843ba6c31789c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been in a funk lately. Investors that got used to earning over 80% return on the stock in the past two years must be anxious about shares spinning their wheels for the past several months. The stock has been down about 16% from the all-time high, and 10% off early September levels.</p>\n<p>To be clear, the recent lack of traction could be justified by the stock's outstanding performance prior to September 2020, and its need to consolidate (i.e., wait for much of the rest of the market to catch up) before climbing higher. While Apple takes a breather, I think investors could position themselves in the stock now and benefit over a multi-year period.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamentals look solid</b></p>\n<p>I challenge an unbiased analyst or investor to make a strong bearish case against Apple's fundamentals and growth opportunities:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The iPhone's 5G upgrade cycle has been questioned, particularly after reports of soft demand for the smaller 12 mini. But otherwise, the Pro and Pro Max versions helped to lift iPhone sales in the holiday quarter substantially (see graph below), after a pitiful fiscal fourth quarter. Maybe more importantly, upcoming versions of Apple's smartphones will probably see increased demand as 5G networks expand across global markets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7d7fa78d96342c588663825be779e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Doubling service revenues in five years, between 2016 and 2020, was quite a feat. Off a much higher base, Apple could be ready to do it again through 2025, at least according to one analyst. I would not doubt it, since (1) the iPhone installed base is much larger now,at over 1 billion active devices, (2) new services keep getting added to the portfolio, even if some may not have caught on yet, and (3) the Apple One bundle could serve as a nudge for increased user penetration.</li>\n <li>The wearables revolution is probably still in the earlier innings. Apple joined the party when it launched the Watch in 2015 and followed through with the AirPods in late 2016. Both devices have proven successful,beyond many experts' initial projections. The \"next big thing\" is probably VR and AR technology and devices. Credible rumors that Apple might be gearing up to make a move here have already started to surface.</li>\n <li>Apple sits on $200 billion in cash (gross of debt), and the company might not even know what to do with so much money. Investment in growth is a given, with the ambitious development of the Apple Car a likely recipient of some cash infusion. But even an increase in share buybacks and dividends could also be on the table.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What best explains the funk</b></p>\n<p>In addition to an old-fashioned pullback, following two very strong years of performance, I believe that there are two other key factors putting pressure on Apple shares.</p>\n<p>The first is rising yields. Higher interest rates can impact a company and its stock in many different ways (higher interest expenses, disincentive to borrow, etc.), but the most relevant is probably market sentiment. Just ahead of the reopening of the US economy and others around the world to follow,it has made more sense to be exposed to cyclical stocks since the announcement of the first fully-tested COVID-19 vaccine. Also, with yields rising, soon some might start to consider fixed income a viable investment once again, to the detriment of growth stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52143f5b78656200592c94ae3acf32ad\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The last time that the 30-year yield climbed substantially over a short period of time was in 2012-2013: up from 2.4% to 4.0% in about 18 months (see graph above, divide index level by 1,000 to arrive at rate). Notice that Apple traded opposite to the yield movement in that case, dropping in value when rates increased, and vice-versa. Worth noting, the stock began to recover about six months before yields peaked.</p>\n<p>The second possible explanation for weakness in Apple is tough comps in 2021, particularly in certain segments that benefited from the stay-at-home economy. The graph below shows that product categories once considered to be in their mature or declining life cycles, namely laptops and tablets, came back to life last year. It is unlikely that 2021 will be as good a period for either.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c413216913310ade0402bd2aed41591\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p>\n<p><b>Attractive below $120</b></p>\n<p>While short-term headwinds can continue to exist, I believe that an investor with a multi-year time horizon in mind will probably benefit from buying Apple at or below $120 per share. The graph below shows that buying the stock on a 15%-plus dip has historically produced annual returns that are 17 percentage points higher than if shares had been bought within 10% of the all-time high.</p>\n<p>Fortunately, for aspiring Apple shareholders, the stock ended the trading session on March 19 at $119.99 – a tease for anyone awaiting an entry point below $120. While stocks undergoing a correction can behave erratically in the near term, a bullish move on Apple today seems quite reasonable to me.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda2e76bd9eaca25b512770a371e5126\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Deeper It Digs, The Better The Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Deeper It Digs, The Better The Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 23:06 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415183-apple-deeper-digs-better-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been struggling to find its footing, as rising yields and tough segment comps have put a lid on the stock price.\nHowever, business fundamentals remain quite solid. Also, history ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415183-apple-deeper-digs-better-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415183-apple-deeper-digs-better-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1177566021","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been struggling to find its footing, as rising yields and tough segment comps have put a lid on the stock price.\nHowever, business fundamentals remain quite solid. Also, history suggests that buying dips will likely prove to be a profitable trade.\nWhile stocks undergoing a correction can behave erratically in the near term, a bullish move on Apple at today's levels seems quite reasonable.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) has been in a funk lately. Investors that got used to earning over 80% return on the stock in the past two years must be anxious about shares spinning their wheels for the past several months. The stock has been down about 16% from the all-time high, and 10% off early September levels.\nTo be clear, the recent lack of traction could be justified by the stock's outstanding performance prior to September 2020, and its need to consolidate (i.e., wait for much of the rest of the market to catch up) before climbing higher. While Apple takes a breather, I think investors could position themselves in the stock now and benefit over a multi-year period.\nFundamentals look solid\nI challenge an unbiased analyst or investor to make a strong bearish case against Apple's fundamentals and growth opportunities:\n\nThe iPhone's 5G upgrade cycle has been questioned, particularly after reports of soft demand for the smaller 12 mini. But otherwise, the Pro and Pro Max versions helped to lift iPhone sales in the holiday quarter substantially (see graph below), after a pitiful fiscal fourth quarter. Maybe more importantly, upcoming versions of Apple's smartphones will probably see increased demand as 5G networks expand across global markets.\n\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\n\nDoubling service revenues in five years, between 2016 and 2020, was quite a feat. Off a much higher base, Apple could be ready to do it again through 2025, at least according to one analyst. I would not doubt it, since (1) the iPhone installed base is much larger now,at over 1 billion active devices, (2) new services keep getting added to the portfolio, even if some may not have caught on yet, and (3) the Apple One bundle could serve as a nudge for increased user penetration.\nThe wearables revolution is probably still in the earlier innings. Apple joined the party when it launched the Watch in 2015 and followed through with the AirPods in late 2016. Both devices have proven successful,beyond many experts' initial projections. The \"next big thing\" is probably VR and AR technology and devices. Credible rumors that Apple might be gearing up to make a move here have already started to surface.\nApple sits on $200 billion in cash (gross of debt), and the company might not even know what to do with so much money. Investment in growth is a given, with the ambitious development of the Apple Car a likely recipient of some cash infusion. But even an increase in share buybacks and dividends could also be on the table.\n\nWhat best explains the funk\nIn addition to an old-fashioned pullback, following two very strong years of performance, I believe that there are two other key factors putting pressure on Apple shares.\nThe first is rising yields. Higher interest rates can impact a company and its stock in many different ways (higher interest expenses, disincentive to borrow, etc.), but the most relevant is probably market sentiment. Just ahead of the reopening of the US economy and others around the world to follow,it has made more sense to be exposed to cyclical stocks since the announcement of the first fully-tested COVID-19 vaccine. Also, with yields rising, soon some might start to consider fixed income a viable investment once again, to the detriment of growth stocks.\nData by YCharts\nThe last time that the 30-year yield climbed substantially over a short period of time was in 2012-2013: up from 2.4% to 4.0% in about 18 months (see graph above, divide index level by 1,000 to arrive at rate). Notice that Apple traded opposite to the yield movement in that case, dropping in value when rates increased, and vice-versa. Worth noting, the stock began to recover about six months before yields peaked.\nThe second possible explanation for weakness in Apple is tough comps in 2021, particularly in certain segments that benefited from the stay-at-home economy. The graph below shows that product categories once considered to be in their mature or declining life cycles, namely laptops and tablets, came back to life last year. It is unlikely that 2021 will be as good a period for either.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nAttractive below $120\nWhile short-term headwinds can continue to exist, I believe that an investor with a multi-year time horizon in mind will probably benefit from buying Apple at or below $120 per share. The graph below shows that buying the stock on a 15%-plus dip has historically produced annual returns that are 17 percentage points higher than if shares had been bought within 10% of the all-time high.\nFortunately, for aspiring Apple shareholders, the stock ended the trading session on March 19 at $119.99 – a tease for anyone awaiting an entry point below $120. While stocks undergoing a correction can behave erratically in the near term, a bullish move on Apple today seems quite reasonable to me.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/359752895"}
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