0seven
2021-03-24
[呆住]
Baidu: Recent Share Price Drop Is An Opportune Entry Window
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":351114426,"tweetId":"351114426","gmtCreate":1616574736765,"gmtModify":1634525133235,"author":{"id":3578647329384410,"idStr":"3578647329384410","authorId":3578647329384410,"authorIdStr":"3578647329384410","name":"0seven","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8280ec4c010fb64e3c4ed0d68976ff05","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[呆住] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[呆住] </span></p></body></html>","text":"[呆住]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351114426","repostId":1178655113,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178655113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616574377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178655113?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 16:26","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Baidu: Recent Share Price Drop Is An Opportune Entry Window","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178655113","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent correction in the broader tech sector has led to an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop.Baidu's current market capitalization isn't assigning any value to its high-growth businesses, such as AI and cloud.A valuation uptick of >20% can be achieved if Baidu's share price recovers to adjust for the overshoot and trades in line with its tech peers.The valuation analysis further indicated that there is very likely an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop. If Baidu is to trade in line wit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent correction in the broader tech sector has led to an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop.</li>\n <li>Baidu's current market capitalization isn't assigning any value to its high-growth businesses, such as AI and cloud.</li>\n <li>A valuation uptick of >20% can be achieved if Baidu's share price recovers to adjust for the overshoot and trades in line with its tech peers.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c268cf54d18b5bce1be1d1fa0dee0777\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by zorazhuang/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment thesis</b></p>\n<p>The recent sharp correction of the tech sector since the beginning of March has led to a drop of around 15% in Baidu's (BIDU) share price. SOTP (Sum-of-the- Parts) valuation analysis of Baidu, with its updated year-end financials, showed that its current market capitalization isn't assigning any value to the high growth business areas it has been focusing on, such as cloud and AI.</p>\n<p>The valuation analysis further indicated that there is very likely an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop. If Baidu is to trade in line with its tech peers, there could be a valuation uptick of more than 20%.</p>\n<p><b>Background</b></p>\n<p>In my previous article, I shared my thinking that Baidu's valuation, on a high-level basis, can be broken down into two parts:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Search: can be valued by benchmarking to Sogou's (SOGO) trading multiple</li>\n <li>Non-search: can be benchmarked to a list of tech companies (Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Google (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA))</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Based on Baidu's current valuation, the implied P/S multiple of its non-search business is around 6.5x.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f6a14410a950e11d170c0df7dad700\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\"><span>Source: Baidu company disclosure, Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>This is much lower than its tech peers' multiple of around 11x.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50817b7c52a01451cbf004bacf80fd7b\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"146\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>If we carry out a more comprehensive SOTP analysis, we can see that this means, at Baidu's current market capitalization, the market is basically not assigning any value to its cloud and AI businesses at all.</p>\n<p><b>SOTP</b></p>\n<p>The following is how I carried out the more comprehensive SOTP analysis:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495481bf4059deccc169ac96e0c88c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Baidu company disclosure, Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p><b>Search:</b>similar to the simplified SOTP above, I'm using Sogou's trading multiple to value Baidu's search business</p>\n<p><b>Apollo:</b>given the lack of disclosure, it is difficult to value the business unit by using a relative valuation model as in the case of search. One good comparable is Google's Waymo, which has the latest valuation of $30 billion.</p>\n<p>With Apollo's recent milestones, such as building the 5G intelligent driving project in Chengdu and testing paid driverless rides on public roads in China, one can debate if Apollo should be valued similarly to Waymo. But, to be conservative, I am assuming Apollo's valuation is at a 30% discount to Waymo's, i.e., $21 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Smart Living Group:</b>Its latest series A financing in September last year valued the company at around $3 billion. The post-financing dilution to Baidu's ownership was not disclosed, although its official announcement mentioned that Baidu would retain a majority stake.</p>\n<p>I assumed Baidu has post-money ownership of 55% (to be conservative again), and this will give rise to a value of only $1.7 billion for its Smart Living business.</p>\n<p>Its investments in iQIYI (IQ) and Trip.com (TCOM) are based on their corresponding market capitalizations.</p>\n<p>Given all these and further adjusting for its net cash position, the implied valuation of its other high growth business areas, such as AI and cloud, is less than zero.</p>\n<p><b>Upside</b></p>\n<p>There is very likely an overshoot in Baidu's recent share price drop. On a high-level basis, we can gauge the magnitude of the overshoot by applying the 11x P/S multiple that its tech peers are currently trading at to Baidu's non-search business.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2d85a3366a93bdd2bbc0f72386f087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"144\"><span>Source: Baidu company disclosure, Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We can see that if Baidu is to trade in line with the tech peers, there could be an upside of more than 20%.</p>\n<p><b>Hong Kong IPO</b></p>\n<p>The company is expected to raise around $3 billion from its Hong Kong IPO, with most of the proceeds being used to enhance its AI technology and to grow its non-search business. This further indicated the significance of the role AI and non-search business will play in terms of the company's future strategy and valuation.</p>\n<p>As the local investors in Hong Kong and China are much more familiar with the company's products and more likely to be their future users, its Hong Kong IPO could be a positive catalyst for unlocking the company's value in the long run, provided that it can continue to transform itself into a tech company that focuses on AI and intelligent driving.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Perception is a double-edged sword. Baidu, especially among the less familiar investors, has always been perceived as the search company of China, thanks to its dominant position in search. Without breaking such perception, its valuation level would hardly be benchmarked to the other \"high-flying\" tech peers, such as Tencent or Google.</p>\n<p>Disclosure of the company's non-search business segments is the key so that investors can understand its underlying value better. This is going to take time and won't happen overnight. Although we can't say for sure that the company will be more actively spinning off its business segments to unlock the value, like its BAT peers have been doing, I do expect there will be more disclosure in the future as its non-search business units continue to bear fruit and to raise capital from external investors.</p>\n<p>Besides, the recent sharp correction in the broader tech sector was largely sparked off by the risk of inflation and the recent hikes in treasury yields.</p>\n<p>Although the Fed signaled to keep its rates at record low levels at least until 2023 after its meeting last week, it did expect the economic growth and inflation to continue to pick up. As such, even though there might not be an immediate rate hike, an increase in interest rate would almost be inevitable in the long run, as the pandemic subsides and the economy improves.</p>\n<p>The only way to see to this seemingly inevitable rate increase, in the long run, is for Baidu to improve its future cash flows. Hence, this translates into how much the company can really transform itself into an AI / intelligent driving company in the coming years before the rate hike materializes. Not just at the strategy level, but in terms of bottom-line contribution and cash flow generation.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, the overshoot in Baidu's share price drop provides a good entry window for the long-term investors who bet on the successful transformation of Baidu from a search-driven company to a tech company whose underlying value will be increasingly driven by high-growth non-search businesses.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Baidu: Recent Share Price Drop Is An Opportune Entry Window</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBaidu: Recent Share Price Drop Is An Opportune Entry Window\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 16:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415663-baidu-recent-share-price-drop-is-opportune-entry-window><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent correction in the broader tech sector has led to an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop.\nBaidu's current market capitalization isn't assigning any value to its high-growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415663-baidu-recent-share-price-drop-is-opportune-entry-window\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415663-baidu-recent-share-price-drop-is-opportune-entry-window","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1178655113","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent correction in the broader tech sector has led to an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop.\nBaidu's current market capitalization isn't assigning any value to its high-growth businesses, such as AI and cloud.\nA valuation uptick of >20% can be achieved if Baidu's share price recovers to adjust for the overshoot and trades in line with its tech peers.\n\nPhoto by zorazhuang/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment thesis\nThe recent sharp correction of the tech sector since the beginning of March has led to a drop of around 15% in Baidu's (BIDU) share price. SOTP (Sum-of-the- Parts) valuation analysis of Baidu, with its updated year-end financials, showed that its current market capitalization isn't assigning any value to the high growth business areas it has been focusing on, such as cloud and AI.\nThe valuation analysis further indicated that there is very likely an overshoot in Baidu's share price drop. If Baidu is to trade in line with its tech peers, there could be a valuation uptick of more than 20%.\nBackground\nIn my previous article, I shared my thinking that Baidu's valuation, on a high-level basis, can be broken down into two parts:\n\nSearch: can be valued by benchmarking to Sogou's (SOGO) trading multiple\nNon-search: can be benchmarked to a list of tech companies (Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Google (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA))\n\nBased on Baidu's current valuation, the implied P/S multiple of its non-search business is around 6.5x.\nSource: Baidu company disclosure, Capital IQ\nThis is much lower than its tech peers' multiple of around 11x.\nSource: Capital IQ\nIf we carry out a more comprehensive SOTP analysis, we can see that this means, at Baidu's current market capitalization, the market is basically not assigning any value to its cloud and AI businesses at all.\nSOTP\nThe following is how I carried out the more comprehensive SOTP analysis:\nSource: Baidu company disclosure, Capital IQ\nSearch:similar to the simplified SOTP above, I'm using Sogou's trading multiple to value Baidu's search business\nApollo:given the lack of disclosure, it is difficult to value the business unit by using a relative valuation model as in the case of search. One good comparable is Google's Waymo, which has the latest valuation of $30 billion.\nWith Apollo's recent milestones, such as building the 5G intelligent driving project in Chengdu and testing paid driverless rides on public roads in China, one can debate if Apollo should be valued similarly to Waymo. But, to be conservative, I am assuming Apollo's valuation is at a 30% discount to Waymo's, i.e., $21 billion.\nSmart Living Group:Its latest series A financing in September last year valued the company at around $3 billion. The post-financing dilution to Baidu's ownership was not disclosed, although its official announcement mentioned that Baidu would retain a majority stake.\nI assumed Baidu has post-money ownership of 55% (to be conservative again), and this will give rise to a value of only $1.7 billion for its Smart Living business.\nIts investments in iQIYI (IQ) and Trip.com (TCOM) are based on their corresponding market capitalizations.\nGiven all these and further adjusting for its net cash position, the implied valuation of its other high growth business areas, such as AI and cloud, is less than zero.\nUpside\nThere is very likely an overshoot in Baidu's recent share price drop. On a high-level basis, we can gauge the magnitude of the overshoot by applying the 11x P/S multiple that its tech peers are currently trading at to Baidu's non-search business.\nSource: Baidu company disclosure, Capital IQ\nWe can see that if Baidu is to trade in line with the tech peers, there could be an upside of more than 20%.\nHong Kong IPO\nThe company is expected to raise around $3 billion from its Hong Kong IPO, with most of the proceeds being used to enhance its AI technology and to grow its non-search business. This further indicated the significance of the role AI and non-search business will play in terms of the company's future strategy and valuation.\nAs the local investors in Hong Kong and China are much more familiar with the company's products and more likely to be their future users, its Hong Kong IPO could be a positive catalyst for unlocking the company's value in the long run, provided that it can continue to transform itself into a tech company that focuses on AI and intelligent driving.\nRisks\nPerception is a double-edged sword. Baidu, especially among the less familiar investors, has always been perceived as the search company of China, thanks to its dominant position in search. Without breaking such perception, its valuation level would hardly be benchmarked to the other \"high-flying\" tech peers, such as Tencent or Google.\nDisclosure of the company's non-search business segments is the key so that investors can understand its underlying value better. This is going to take time and won't happen overnight. Although we can't say for sure that the company will be more actively spinning off its business segments to unlock the value, like its BAT peers have been doing, I do expect there will be more disclosure in the future as its non-search business units continue to bear fruit and to raise capital from external investors.\nBesides, the recent sharp correction in the broader tech sector was largely sparked off by the risk of inflation and the recent hikes in treasury yields.\nAlthough the Fed signaled to keep its rates at record low levels at least until 2023 after its meeting last week, it did expect the economic growth and inflation to continue to pick up. As such, even though there might not be an immediate rate hike, an increase in interest rate would almost be inevitable in the long run, as the pandemic subsides and the economy improves.\nThe only way to see to this seemingly inevitable rate increase, in the long run, is for Baidu to improve its future cash flows. Hence, this translates into how much the company can really transform itself into an AI / intelligent driving company in the coming years before the rate hike materializes. Not just at the strategy level, but in terms of bottom-line contribution and cash flow generation.\nConclusion\nIn my opinion, the overshoot in Baidu's share price drop provides a good entry window for the long-term investors who bet on the successful transformation of Baidu from a search-driven company to a tech company whose underlying value will be increasingly driven by high-growth non-search businesses.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/351114426"}
精彩评论