mavishhs
2021-04-15
[微笑]
Market is 'completely ignoring' serious risks associated with U.S.-China relations, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns
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His reason: it reflects a hard-line approach against China that could spark retaliation.\"My fear for the last several years is that what started out as trade war would turn into a tech war, and then eventually morph into a cold war,\" Roach said. \"Those fears have come to pass. Just this week, there are significant developments that lead me to underscore that risk.\"He also lists a new U.S. intelligence report as particularly worrisome.'The annual threat assessment was released yesterday [Tuesday] by the office of national intelligence and it clearly labeled China as America's No. 1 threat,\" said Roach, who's monitoringbuilding tensions between China and Japan, too.According to Roach,it appears President Joe Biden will continuemany of theTrump administration's policies against China.Roach warns the increased U.S.-China tensions exacerbate his dollar crash call. Late last spring,he predicted the greenback would drop 35%against other major currencies over the next year or two.\"The dollar moved down sharply in the second half of 2020. It reversed course in the first quarter of this year and now it's under downward pressure again,\" Roach said. \"It reflects my concerns over the current account deficit in the United States, unwillingness of the Fed to tighten interest rates for the conceivable future, and then the possibility that Europe may end up having a stronger commitment to fiscal policy than any of us, myself included, thought.\"He's also concerned the current backdrop with China could exacerbate the danger.\"You add to that pressures on America's role as a global leader that may be brought into play by frictions with China and there's still, in my view, considerable downside left for the U.S. dollar,\" Roach said.TheU.S. Dollar Currency Indexis off almost 1% over the past week. 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