KickAss1337
2021-04-14
No, your mom is crazy
GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":344110649,"tweetId":"344110649","gmtCreate":1618386465681,"gmtModify":1634293315983,"author":{"id":3575093896980745,"idStr":"3575093896980745","authorId":3575093896980745,"authorIdStr":"3575093896980745","name":"KickAss1337","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>No, your mom is crazy</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>No, your mom is crazy</p></body></html>","text":"No, your mom is crazy","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344110649","repostId":1190580837,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190580837","pubTimestamp":1618369183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190580837?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 10:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190580837","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere abov","content":"<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p>\n<p>To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p>\n<p>undefined <b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p>\n<p>To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.</p>\n<p><b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p>\n<p>For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p>\n<p><b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p>\n<p>For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li>\n <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.</p>\n<p><b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p>\n<p><b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p>\n<p>We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p>\n<p>We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p>\n<p>With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-14 10:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190580837","content_text":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.\nNevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nTo give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.\nundefined Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s\nTo justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:\n\nimprove its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and\n\n\ngrow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nFor reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.\nStill Crazy at $185\nFor perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:\n\nimmediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and\ngrow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nSure, stock prices can be irrational\nWe are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.\nWe’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.\nWith a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/344110649"}
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