六神战鼓
08-27
涨幅说明市场对NVDA期望很高
@震哥的投资世界:
明天英伟达财报该怎么办?
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style=\"text-align: justify;\">本文将复盘英伟达<strong>最近6次财报前后股价走势,本次财报核心看点,7巨头对比,以及估值情况。</strong></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<h2>财报前后走势复盘</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(1) 最近6个季度ESP和营收都超出分析师预期,并且指引也超出分析师预期。按照目前情况这个季度EPS和营收超预期没悬念</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b36af78880940f52e6869577e6bcc78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"237\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(2) 最近6次财报发布前后走势如下表。最近5次都是完美财报。上次财报更有1拆10催化,发布财报后一路上涨50%,市值突破3w亿。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce930315f854237751f6381161ac804\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"168\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3) 目前期权市场隐含变动10.9%,未来12个月投行平均目标价153</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d51c9f17ba5e87c1c7dc4176f0e235f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\"><span></span></p>\n<h2>财报关键看点</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(1) 数据中心营收和指引:目前市场预期本季度250.23,下一个季度276.63</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">从24Q2 大平台资本开支看,本季财报风险不大。关键是后续以及25年指引</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675c93bf14ed139fdb24e0fbff32efe1\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"380\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2) Blackwell芯片出货时间,有投行预期首批Blackwell芯片最多大概延迟4至6周到25年初出货。前段时间NVDA调整有部分此因素。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3) 毛利 : 公司指引本季度毛利75.5%,后面季度70%。关注毛利的变化</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<h2>7巨头对比</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(1)市值:英伟达3.11w亿,和AAPL差了10%左右。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a694702765f32d3f67fec3a3702ecb\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"371\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2)毛利率:NVDA毛利率78.35%,位居7巨头第二位。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b04fd229fd537de1d120d092bd1a4b6\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"401\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2)今年涨幅:NVDA涨幅第一,远超其他6巨头。<strong>涨幅说明市场对NVDA期望很高</strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef9334f5bf3ee069ea164d074bda90\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"469\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3)估值和增速:NVDA 25年前瞻PE 34.5,处于7巨头第2位。25年EPS增速37.26%,在7巨头中同样第2。<strong>这个估值不算便宜</strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c20257c288f93484322f4b9e74c513\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"216\"><span></span></p>\n<h2>总结</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(1)在英伟达今年涨155%,市值超过3w 亿仅次于苹果时。<strong>笔者风险偏好低并且恐高,本着宁可错过的原则不碰英伟达</strong>。 </p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>同时笔者有个认知:英伟达市值长期超过AAPL(ai端龙头)和MSFT(AI云龙头)是不合理的。毛利78 .35%超过微软同样是不可持续的。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2) <strong>目前财报隐含涨跌幅度10%,财报发布后股价很难预测,不建议重仓去赌财报</strong>。正确的姿势可能是<strong>等财报出来后根据财报情况应对</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3)从长期看是否操作英伟达取决于把英伟达当做周期股还是非周期股:<strong>笔者认为NVDA还没摆脱周期的属性</strong>,除非软件收入已经占大比例。</p>\n<p>(4)不持有NVDA 如果实在忍不住手,笔者判断NVDA很难超过苹果的市值,对应差不多前期高点140左右。建立在上述逻辑:可以构建下面的熊市价差(Sell 140 Call + Buy 145 Call),盈亏平衡点140.91, 每手最大盈利91.5刀,最大亏损408.5刀。<strong>判断股价会大涨超过140请勿操作,同时笔者只是举例目前并没有操作</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(5) NVDA可能会决定短期美股走势,笔者会用Sell Call + buy put对冲部分仓位。<strong>注意用此策略会错过大涨。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>附完整财务数据</strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed09609ee8c9ac10fae401501ed40a58\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"509\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><em>风险提示:文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金,不作为买入建议,请坚持独立思考</em></strong></p>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月28日明天盘后英伟达将发布最新财报:目前公司指引营收280亿,毛利率75.5%。分析师预测营收287亿,同比增长112.48%。分析师预测下一季度营收317亿。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本文将复盘英伟达<strong>最近6次财报前后股价走势,本次财报核心看点,7巨头对比,以及估值情况。</strong></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<h2>财报前后走势复盘</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(1) 最近6个季度ESP和营收都超出分析师预期,并且指引也超出分析师预期。按照目前情况这个季度EPS和营收超预期没悬念</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b36af78880940f52e6869577e6bcc78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"237\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(2) 最近6次财报发布前后走势如下表。最近5次都是完美财报。上次财报更有1拆10催化,发布财报后一路上涨50%,市值突破3w亿。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce930315f854237751f6381161ac804\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"168\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3) 目前期权市场隐含变动10.9%,未来12个月投行平均目标价153</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d51c9f17ba5e87c1c7dc4176f0e235f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\"><span></span></p>\n<h2>财报关键看点</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(1) 数据中心营收和指引:目前市场预期本季度250.23,下一个季度276.63</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">从24Q2 大平台资本开支看,本季财报风险不大。关键是后续以及25年指引</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675c93bf14ed139fdb24e0fbff32efe1\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"380\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2) Blackwell芯片出货时间,有投行预期首批Blackwell芯片最多大概延迟4至6周到25年初出货。前段时间NVDA调整有部分此因素。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3) 毛利 : 公司指引本季度毛利75.5%,后面季度70%。关注毛利的变化</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<h2>7巨头对比</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(1)市值:英伟达3.11w亿,和AAPL差了10%左右。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a694702765f32d3f67fec3a3702ecb\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"371\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2)毛利率:NVDA毛利率78.35%,位居7巨头第二位。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b04fd229fd537de1d120d092bd1a4b6\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"401\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2)今年涨幅:NVDA涨幅第一,远超其他6巨头。<strong>涨幅说明市场对NVDA期望很高</strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef9334f5bf3ee069ea164d074bda90\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"469\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3)估值和增速:NVDA 25年前瞻PE 34.5,处于7巨头第2位。25年EPS增速37.26%,在7巨头中同样第2。<strong>这个估值不算便宜</strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c20257c288f93484322f4b9e74c513\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"216\"><span></span></p>\n<h2>总结</h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(1)在英伟达今年涨155%,市值超过3w 亿仅次于苹果时。<strong>笔者风险偏好低并且恐高,本着宁可错过的原则不碰英伟达</strong>。 </p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>同时笔者有个认知:英伟达市值长期超过AAPL(ai端龙头)和MSFT(AI云龙头)是不合理的。毛利78 .35%超过微软同样是不可持续的。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(2) <strong>目前财报隐含涨跌幅度10%,财报发布后股价很难预测,不建议重仓去赌财报</strong>。正确的姿势可能是<strong>等财报出来后根据财报情况应对</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(3)从长期看是否操作英伟达取决于把英伟达当做周期股还是非周期股:<strong>笔者认为NVDA还没摆脱周期的属性</strong>,除非软件收入已经占大比例。</p>\n<p>(4)不持有NVDA 如果实在忍不住手,笔者判断NVDA很难超过苹果的市值,对应差不多前期高点140左右。建立在上述逻辑:可以构建下面的熊市价差(Sell 140 Call + Buy 145 Call),盈亏平衡点140.91, 每手最大盈利91.5刀,最大亏损408.5刀。<strong>判断股价会大涨超过140请勿操作,同时笔者只是举例目前并没有操作</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(5) NVDA可能会决定短期美股走势,笔者会用Sell Call + buy put对冲部分仓位。<strong>注意用此策略会错过大涨。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>附完整财务数据</strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed09609ee8c9ac10fae401501ed40a58\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"509\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><em>风险提示:文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金,不作为买入建议,请坚持独立思考</em></strong></p>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"8月28日明天盘后英伟达将发布最新财报:目前公司指引营收280亿,毛利率75.5%。分析师预测营收287亿,同比增长112.48%。分析师预测下一季度营收317亿。 本文将复盘英伟达最近6次财报前后股价走势,本次财报核心看点,7巨头对比,以及估值情况。 财报前后走势复盘 (1) 最近6个季度ESP和营收都超出分析师预期,并且指引也超出分析师预期。按照目前情况这个季度EPS和营收超预期没悬念 (2) 最近6次财报发布前后走势如下表。最近5次都是完美财报。上次财报更有1拆10催化,发布财报后一路上涨50%,市值突破3w亿。 (3) 目前期权市场隐含变动10.9%,未来12个月投行平均目标价153 财报关键看点 (1) 数据中心营收和指引:目前市场预期本季度250.23,下一个季度276.63 从24Q2 大平台资本开支看,本季财报风险不大。关键是后续以及25年指引 (2) Blackwell芯片出货时间,有投行预期首批Blackwell芯片最多大概延迟4至6周到25年初出货。前段时间NVDA调整有部分此因素。 (3) 毛利 : 公司指引本季度毛利75.5%,后面季度70%。关注毛利的变化 7巨头对比 (1)市值:英伟达3.11w亿,和AAPL差了10%左右。 (2)毛利率:NVDA毛利率78.35%,位居7巨头第二位。 (2)今年涨幅:NVDA涨幅第一,远超其他6巨头。涨幅说明市场对NVDA期望很高 (3)估值和增速:NVDA 25年前瞻PE 34.5,处于7巨头第2位。25年EPS增速37.26%,在7巨头中同样第2。这个估值不算便宜 总结 (1)在英伟达今年涨155%,市值超过3w 亿仅次于苹果时。笔者风险偏好低并且恐高,本着宁可错过的原则不碰英伟达。 同时笔者有个认知:英伟达市值长期超过AAPL(ai端龙头)和MSFT(AI云龙头)是不合理的。毛利78 .35%超过微软同样是不可持续的。 (2) 目前财报隐含涨跌幅度10%,财报发布后股价很难预测,不建议重仓去赌财报。正确的姿势可能是等财报出来后根据财报情况应对 (3)从长期看是否操作英伟达取决于把英伟达当做周期股还是非周期股:笔者认为NVDA还没摆脱周期的属性,除非软件收入已经占大比例。 (4)不持有NVDA 如果实在忍不住手,笔者判断NVDA很难超过苹果的市值,对应差不多前期高点140左右。建立在上述逻辑:可以构建下面的熊市价差(Sell 140 Call + Buy 145 Call),盈亏平衡点140.91, 每手最大盈利91.5刀,最大亏损408.5刀。判断股价会大涨超过140请勿操作,同时笔者只是举例目前并没有操作 (5) NVDA可能会决定短期美股走势,笔者会用Sell Call + buy put对冲部分仓位。注意用此策略会错过大涨。 附完整财务数据 风险提示:文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金,不作为买入建议,请坚持独立思考 $英伟达(NVDA)$","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342926520545576","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1982,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/342939941884128"}
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