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2021-04-04
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Treasury yields steady ahead of payrolls, with bullish guesses at +1 million
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The 30-year is up a basis point to 2.35%(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT).</p>\n<p>The stock market is closed,a rare occurrence on jobs day.</p>\n<p>Stock index futures are trading, albeit on low volume.</p>\n<p>S&P futures(SPX) +0.3%, Nasdaq futures(NDX:IND) +0.3%, Dow futures(INDU) +0.2%.</p>\n<p>The consensus forecasts for payroll gains is ranging from +600K to +675K from Bloomberg. And the whisper number has grown to +800K.</p>\n<p>A few predictions, including Merrill Lynch, are calling for payroll gains of +1M. That would be the largest number of jobs created since August when the rebound from worst of the COVID lockdowns was in full swing.</p>\n<p>The unemployment rate is expected to drop to around 5.9% or 6%.</p>\n<p>\"I think the risk is on the upside during the initial phase of the reopening. Million plus job prints wouldn’t surprise me,\" Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors writes in a note. \"That said, the burst of super-fast job growth will likely be short-lived. Short-lived though it may be, it will still likely increase conviction that among market participants that the Fed will start hiking rates in 2023 with the risk of even a 2022 rate hike.\"</p>\n<p>Weekly jobless claims showed a surprise gain yesterday, but there are a couple of caveats. The March jobs report survey comes from the first half of the month, and jobless claims have been unreliable, with both fraudulent claims and unreliable reporting.</p>\n<p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, is also predicting a bullish gain of 1M jobs.</p>\n<p>\"Private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 850,000 while gains mostly at the state and local levels make up the remaining 150,000 of those increases,\" Swonk writes in a blog. \"Employment gains in restaurants, bars and accommodation are expected to account for more than half of overall job gains. Hiring in health care is also expected to post outsize gains.\"</p>\n<p>Seeking Alpha contributor Hale Stewart says yesterday's late jump in equities makes him\"very curious\" about the jobs report.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe550259e220d3bbacec3ab0df0365e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury yields steady ahead of payrolls, with bullish guesses at +1 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury yields steady ahead of payrolls, with bullish guesses at +1 million\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 19:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678972-treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-payrolls-with-bullish-guesses-at-1-million><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rates are steady as the bond market awaits the March employment report, which many are expecting to be the firstin a series of hard evidence of the economic recovery.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678972-treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-payrolls-with-bullish-guesses-at-1-million\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678972-treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-payrolls-with-bullish-guesses-at-1-million","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181163636","content_text":"Rates are steady as the bond market awaits the March employment report, which many are expecting to be the firstin a series of hard evidence of the economic recovery.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 1.68%. The 30-year is up a basis point to 2.35%(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT).\nThe stock market is closed,a rare occurrence on jobs day.\nStock index futures are trading, albeit on low volume.\nS&P futures(SPX) +0.3%, Nasdaq futures(NDX:IND) +0.3%, Dow futures(INDU) +0.2%.\nThe consensus forecasts for payroll gains is ranging from +600K to +675K from Bloomberg. And the whisper number has grown to +800K.\nA few predictions, including Merrill Lynch, are calling for payroll gains of +1M. That would be the largest number of jobs created since August when the rebound from worst of the COVID lockdowns was in full swing.\nThe unemployment rate is expected to drop to around 5.9% or 6%.\n\"I think the risk is on the upside during the initial phase of the reopening. Million plus job prints wouldn’t surprise me,\" Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors writes in a note. \"That said, the burst of super-fast job growth will likely be short-lived. Short-lived though it may be, it will still likely increase conviction that among market participants that the Fed will start hiking rates in 2023 with the risk of even a 2022 rate hike.\"\nWeekly jobless claims showed a surprise gain yesterday, but there are a couple of caveats. The March jobs report survey comes from the first half of the month, and jobless claims have been unreliable, with both fraudulent claims and unreliable reporting.\nDiane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, is also predicting a bullish gain of 1M jobs.\n\"Private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 850,000 while gains mostly at the state and local levels make up the remaining 150,000 of those increases,\" Swonk writes in a blog. \"Employment gains in restaurants, bars and accommodation are expected to account for more than half of overall job gains. Hiring in health care is also expected to post outsize gains.\"\nSeeking Alpha contributor Hale Stewart says yesterday's late jump in equities makes him\"very curious\" about the jobs report.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/340749633"}
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