ffc5312
2021-01-20
[思考] [思考]
@捷克Jack:
奈飞Q4财报值不值得如此大涨?
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a> 财报超预期后涨了13%,实在是有些惊喜。当然,对于涨幅是惊喜,对于业绩我认为是理所当然。</p> <p>拎一下要点:</p> <p>第一、<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>20Q2-3的业绩说实话是平淡得有些令人失望,</b></span>所以股价横了两个季度也可以理解,而Q4超预期之后自然是空头该平仓平仓,该追高的追高,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>相当于是补涨</b></span>;</p> <p>第二、订阅用户一直是奈飞的重中之重,奈飞用户数创新高之所以一点不用意外的原因,是它在内容上的投入效率太高了!<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>IMDB评选的2020年10部最佳美剧,奈飞占了7部。</b></span>基本上传统电视台都已经失去竞争力了,现在唯一可以在内容上叫板的“后起之秀”是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$</a> 了。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a679f553ab4f4f15cd2f073b182164a0\" tg-width=\"1245\" tg-height=\"692\"></p> <p>第三、从绝对值上来看,ARPPU的变化在不同地区有些差别,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>除了拉美地区-13%之外其余都是“同比转正”</b></span>。但是要注意一点,Q4的汇率变化比较大,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>如果将汇率拉平,全球范围内ARPPU都是上升(或持平)的</b></span>,所以这点象征着厚积薄发之力。</p> <p>第四、奈飞和国内的几家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a> 之类流媒体商不同,它是很早就开始盈利了,但是因为<span 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<p>第三、从绝对值上来看,ARPPU的变化在不同地区有些差别,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>除了拉美地区-13%之外其余都是“同比转正”</b></span>。但是要注意一点,Q4的汇率变化比较大,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>如果将汇率拉平,全球范围内ARPPU都是上升(或持平)的</b></span>,所以这点象征着厚积薄发之力。</p> <p>第四、奈飞和国内的几家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a> 之类流媒体商不同,它是很早就开始盈利了,但是因为<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>一直以来自产内容消耗大量的现金流</b></span>,所以整体的现金流压力较大,因此在2020年之前它一直保持着一定量的负债。</p> <p>时至今日,奈飞现金流的情况也较好,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,0,0,1);\"><b>管理层对未来的现金流信心很大,因此在考虑“回购计划”</b></span>——在自身保持100-150亿美元债务的同时,会将多余的现金用回购的方式还给股东。恐怕这也是盘后大涨的重要因素。</p></body></html>","text":"$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$ 财报超预期后涨了13%,实在是有些惊喜。当然,对于涨幅是惊喜,对于业绩我认为是理所当然。 拎一下要点: 第一、20Q2-3的业绩说实话是平淡得有些令人失望,所以股价横了两个季度也可以理解,而Q4超预期之后自然是空头该平仓平仓,该追高的追高,相当于是补涨; 第二、订阅用户一直是奈飞的重中之重,奈飞用户数创新高之所以一点不用意外的原因,是它在内容上的投入效率太高了!IMDB评选的2020年10部最佳美剧,奈飞占了7部。基本上传统电视台都已经失去竞争力了,现在唯一可以在内容上叫板的“后起之秀”是$迪士尼(DIS)$ 了。 第三、从绝对值上来看,ARPPU的变化在不同地区有些差别,除了拉美地区-13%之外其余都是“同比转正”。但是要注意一点,Q4的汇率变化比较大,如果将汇率拉平,全球范围内ARPPU都是上升(或持平)的,所以这点象征着厚积薄发之力。 第四、奈飞和国内的几家$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 之类流媒体商不同,它是很早就开始盈利了,但是因为一直以来自产内容消耗大量的现金流,所以整体的现金流压力较大,因此在2020年之前它一直保持着一定量的负债。 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