丁丁哥哥
2021-03-08
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@程俊Dream：
黄金中期底部可能已经触及，做好黄金反弹的准备
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秀秀168
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2021-03-08
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style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\">最差的情况下，市场也会出现小级别的反弹修正，理想状况下，黄金中期底部或已触及。</span></p> <h4><b>周线 日线双契合 黄金不必悲观</b></h4> <p>黄金自去年三季度开始的调整已经持续了2个季度左右的时间，垂直空间也达到了400美元左右，这初步符合了本轮大周期调整的要求。尽管我们不排除市场可能会进行更久的调整，亦或者以单针探底的形式探明底部，但整体上的下行风险已经十分有限了。</p> <p>此前我们一直建议投资者可以定投的模式买入黄金，而投机的交易者则还需要耐心等待。现在来看，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\">结构性的抄底/投机性的做多也进入到雷达视野中。</span></p> <p>从短中期来看，周线会在本周进入到反弹节点，日线则会在本周二进入到反弹节点。这就暗示市场至少会完成一波有一定力度的反弹。去年一季度所构成的密集交投区间低位（下图）可以作为潜在的止损点，更为稳妥的中期止损点则稍远，不建议短线投资者作为参考。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c83c12a1babcea526c2fa291216d3318\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"820\"></p> <p>目前还无法判定市场已经筑底，后续需要价格本身来完成明确的信号，才能宣布重新进入到看涨格局中。是否需要比较长时间的持仓，可以静观其变。长期而言，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\">和之前所说的一致，最后一波的上涨还有650+美元以上的空间。</span></p> <h4><b>美债收益率的一些问题</b></h4> <p>最近坊间对于美债收益率的持续走高也十分担忧，无论是股票还是黄金投资者似乎都颇为担心。此处再来简单探讨一下美债收益率的短期和趋势性可能。事实上，对于本轮美债遭抛售（美债收益率走高），有专业人士指出是和美国楼市/MBS有关，短期骤升的对冲房贷风险使得市场在美联储持续吹风继续宽松的环境下卖出美债。而随着这一压力的逐渐缓冲和减弱，后续收益率也将迎来回调。</p> <p>需要注意的是，我们此处仅是讨论美债收益率上行和货币政策预期以及实际驱动因素，而非简单的认为收益率回落之后，将有利于黄金。正如上周所介绍的那样，美债和黄金在超长期的时间跨度内，并不是完美标准的负相关性。他们的关联度和许多其他因素相关，也有大把时间呈现同向走势。</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/PLmain\">$铂金主连(PLmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/PAmain\">$钯金主连(PAmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>黄金在上周继续保持震荡下行，一度跌破1700水平，白银也出现了一定程度的补跌，但强势程度明显优于黄金。在时间周期匹配和价格基本到位的情况下，我们预计投机性（结构性）的多单尝试也已经可以考虑。<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\">最差的情况下，市场也会出现小级别的反弹修正，理想状况下，黄金中期底部或已触及。</span></p> <h4><b>周线 日线双契合 黄金不必悲观</b></h4> <p>黄金自去年三季度开始的调整已经持续了2个季度左右的时间，垂直空间也达到了400美元左右，这初步符合了本轮大周期调整的要求。尽管我们不排除市场可能会进行更久的调整，亦或者以单针探底的形式探明底部，但整体上的下行风险已经十分有限了。</p> <p>此前我们一直建议投资者可以定投的模式买入黄金，而投机的交易者则还需要耐心等待。现在来看，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\">结构性的抄底/投机性的做多也进入到雷达视野中。</span></p> <p>从短中期来看，周线会在本周进入到反弹节点，日线则会在本周二进入到反弹节点。这就暗示市场至少会完成一波有一定力度的反弹。去年一季度所构成的密集交投区间低位（下图）可以作为潜在的止损点，更为稳妥的中期止损点则稍远，不建议短线投资者作为参考。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c83c12a1babcea526c2fa291216d3318\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"820\"></p> <p>目前还无法判定市场已经筑底，后续需要价格本身来完成明确的信号，才能宣布重新进入到看涨格局中。是否需要比较长时间的持仓，可以静观其变。长期而言，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\">和之前所说的一致，最后一波的上涨还有650+美元以上的空间。</span></p> <h4><b>美债收益率的一些问题</b></h4> <p>最近坊间对于美债收益率的持续走高也十分担忧，无论是股票还是黄金投资者似乎都颇为担心。此处再来简单探讨一下美债收益率的短期和趋势性可能。事实上，对于本轮美债遭抛售（美债收益率走高），有专业人士指出是和美国楼市/MBS有关，短期骤升的对冲房贷风险使得市场在美联储持续吹风继续宽松的环境下卖出美债。而随着这一压力的逐渐缓冲和减弱，后续收益率也将迎来回调。</p> <p>需要注意的是，我们此处仅是讨论美债收益率上行和货币政策预期以及实际驱动因素，而非简单的认为收益率回落之后，将有利于黄金。正如上周所介绍的那样，美债和黄金在超长期的时间跨度内，并不是完美标准的负相关性。他们的关联度和许多其他因素相关，也有大把时间呈现同向走势。</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/PLmain\">$铂金主连(PLmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/PAmain\">$钯金主连(PAmain)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"黄金在上周继续保持震荡下行，一度跌破1700水平，白银也出现了一定程度的补跌，但强势程度明显优于黄金。在时间周期匹配和价格基本到位的情况下，我们预计投机性（结构性）的多单尝试也已经可以考虑。最差的情况下，市场也会出现小级别的反弹修正，理想状况下，黄金中期底部或已触及。 周线 日线双契合 黄金不必悲观 黄金自去年三季度开始的调整已经持续了2个季度左右的时间，垂直空间也达到了400美元左右，这初步符合了本轮大周期调整的要求。尽管我们不排除市场可能会进行更久的调整，亦或者以单针探底的形式探明底部，但整体上的下行风险已经十分有限了。 此前我们一直建议投资者可以定投的模式买入黄金，而投机的交易者则还需要耐心等待。现在来看，结构性的抄底/投机性的做多也进入到雷达视野中。 从短中期来看，周线会在本周进入到反弹节点，日线则会在本周二进入到反弹节点。这就暗示市场至少会完成一波有一定力度的反弹。去年一季度所构成的密集交投区间低位（下图）可以作为潜在的止损点，更为稳妥的中期止损点则稍远，不建议短线投资者作为参考。 目前还无法判定市场已经筑底，后续需要价格本身来完成明确的信号，才能宣布重新进入到看涨格局中。是否需要比较长时间的持仓，可以静观其变。长期而言，和之前所说的一致，最后一波的上涨还有650+美元以上的空间。 美债收益率的一些问题 最近坊间对于美债收益率的持续走高也十分担忧，无论是股票还是黄金投资者似乎都颇为担心。此处再来简单探讨一下美债收益率的短期和趋势性可能。事实上，对于本轮美债遭抛售（美债收益率走高），有专业人士指出是和美国楼市/MBS有关，短期骤升的对冲房贷风险使得市场在美联储持续吹风继续宽松的环境下卖出美债。而随着这一压力的逐渐缓冲和减弱，后续收益率也将迎来回调。 需要注意的是，我们此处仅是讨论美债收益率上行和货币政策预期以及实际驱动因素，而非简单的认为收益率回落之后，将有利于黄金。正如上周所介绍的那样，美债和黄金在超长期的时间跨度内，并不是完美标准的负相关性。他们的关联度和许多其他因素相关，也有大把时间呈现同向走势。 $黄金主连(GCmain)$ $白银主连(SImain)$ $铂金主连(PLmain)$ $钯金主连(PAmain)$ 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