$纳斯达克(.IXI_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$十年期国债收益率继续走高，我相信金融和经济原理，国债作为无风险利率，本身就作为股市锚定的基础，我不认为国债利率会突破2%，但市场依然不稳定，从技术面角度，我会考虑建个底仓，但美联储若没有相关动作，我不认为1.9万亿对应的国债依然有这么多投资者购买，美国疫情逐步修复下，通胀率会随着消费需求拉动式增长，必然会要求更高的无风险利率，tips昨天的市场通胀率达到历史高点，我个人更倾向于这次是技术层面的反弹

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

东方华尔街
2021-03-12
东方华尔街
国债没人买导致利率上升，那利率上升，原来得人还不买吗？非要从股市流资金过去？ok，就算流过去了，那是不是利率就降低了，那原来不买国债的人的钱去哪了，留着通胀吗
- wciq1208回复透明人gf:
  都是资金轮动的借口，算估值时一般直接假设高息环境，r默认使用5%或更高，不会有人真用当前利率来算的，像巴菲特说过他折现率直接基于经验拍板一个，根本不会去细算
- 惊蛰_9939回复东方华尔街:
  通胀不能炒大宗商品？大宗商品继续这么涨通胀跑不了
- 东方华尔街回复透明人gf:
  [笑哭]
- 透明人gf:
  抛售国债是因为通胀预期，必要的无风险回报率就提高了，原本低利率的国债买了就亏谁要？至于股市是因为通胀下r增高，股价估值就下跌，原因还是因为利率高了，投资者觉得pe周期太长就不划算了。至于钱，谁跟你说只能放股市和债市里面选一种？你这思路，先看看金融基本知识吧
东方华尔街
2021-03-12
东方华尔街
国债利率和股市根本没必然联系一切都是故事
- 东方华尔街回复透明人gf:
  没必要学，你可以一句话反驳我
- 透明人gf:
  先去学一下宏观和cfa
惊蛰_9939
2021-03-12
惊蛰_9939
不看好后市已经sqqq 通胀预期一定是德摩克里斯之剑悬在头上
- 透明人gf:
  我仓位一直等着，想了想还是不敢买，从技术角度看，纳指站上了10日和5日均线，但在市场极度不稳定情况下，我不觉得这是趋势反转的信号，毕竟现在十年期国债利率又在涨
老铁来了
2021-03-12
老铁来了
分期买入呗，涨稳了也不敢买，跌多了也不敢入，那什么时候买？等涨完了继续回调了再买？
ihiriasss
2021-03-12
ihiriasss
那是2，不是2%
bearxixi
2021-03-12
bearxixi
敢看空美股

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