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2021-03-17
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Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting
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For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p>\n<p>“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p>\n<p>The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p>\n<p><b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p>\n<p>Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p>\n<p>Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p>\n<p>Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p>\n<p>Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p>\n<p><b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p>\n<p>“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p>\n<p>Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p>\n<p>Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p>\n<p>Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p>\n<p><b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p>\n<p>Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p>\n<p>The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p>\n<p><b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p>\n<p>As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p>\n<p>If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p>\n<p>YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEasy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 10:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103121082","content_text":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.\nMore-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.\n“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”\nThe rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.\nUpdated economic forecasts:In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.\nAneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)\nFed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.\nSome economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).\nGiven the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.\nThe dot plot:In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.\n“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.\nBostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.\nBond market action:How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.\nIan Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.\nLyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.\nSLR exemption extension:Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.\nWall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.\nThe exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.\nFurther easing watch:Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”\nAs for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.\nIf financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.\nYCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324991473"}
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