Mediator
07-06
九月降息概率接近八成
美联储9月能否降息?关键数据还在后头!
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP,发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":324468296610080,"tweetId":"324468296610080","gmtCreate":1720245060903,"gmtModify":1720245063127,"author":{"id":3498680662745699,"authorId":3498680662745699,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccbee84d06c97c8ea354bff2e5c20b6d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>九月降息概率接近八成</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>九月降息概率接近八成</p></body></html>","text":"九月降息概率接近八成","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324468296610080","repostId":2449296614,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2449296614","pubTimestamp":1720192080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2449296614?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-05 23:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储9月能否降息?关键数据还在后头!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449296614","media":"金十数据","summary":"交易员们坚持押注美联储官员将在今年降低利率。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>在美国劳动力市场报告喜忧参半之后,美债上涨,推动收益率下降,交易员们坚持押注美联储官员将在今年降低利率。</span></p>\n<p><span>对美联储政策前景变化更为敏感的两年期美债收益率一度下跌</span><span>8</span><span>个基点至</span><span>4.62%</span><span>,创下自</span><span>4</span><span>月</span><span>1</span><span>日以来的最低水平。尽管美国政府</span><span>6</span><span>月就业报告显示新增就业人数超出预期,但前几个月的数据被下修,且失业率上升。</span></p>\n<p><span>衍生品交易员对于</span><span>2024</span><span>年美国降息预期坚定不变。<strong>他们预计有约</strong></span><strong>70%的概率决策者最早在9</strong><span><strong>月就会降息。</strong>对于整个</span><span>2024</span><span>年,<strong>合约预计总共有</strong></span><strong>48个基点的降息。</strong></p>\n<p><span>AmeriVet Securities</span><span>美国利率交易和策略主管</span><span>Gregory Faranello</span><span>表示:“这是一个对美联储和美债市场友好的数据。美联储将对未来的就业市场保持高度警惕。”</span></p>\n<p><span>周五美国劳工统计局表示,非农就业人口上月增长</span><span>20.6</span><span>万,而前两个月的就业增长被下调了</span><span>11.1</span><span>万。失业率因更多人加入劳动力大军而升至</span><span>4.1%</span><span>,平均时薪增长放缓。</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管数据支持债券市场对美联储货币宽松周期开始的乐观预期,但这还不足以确定首次降息的具体时间。政策制定者已将基准利率维持在</span><span>5.25%</span><span>至</span><span>5.50%</span><span>区间长达一年。</span></p>\n<p><span>BlackRock Inc.</span><span>的投资组合经理</span><span>Jeffrey Rosenberg</span><span>周五表示:“<strong>真正确定</strong></span><strong>9</strong><span><strong>月降息的关键是另一轮数据</strong>,更重要的是我们下周看到的通胀情况,显然还有下个月的情况。有一些交叉影响使得情况变得有点棘手。”</span></p>\n<p><span>下周的经济数据将包括</span><strong>6</strong><span><strong>月消费者和生产者价格增长的读数。交易员还对政治风险保持警惕</strong>,因为拜登在最近辩论后的连任几率下降。</span></p>\n<p><span>短期美债收益率曲线的变动超过了长期的变动,基准</span><span>10</span><span>年期收益率下跌约</span><span>6</span><span>个基点至</span><span>4.30%</span><span>,而</span><span>30</span><span>年期债务的利率则下跌约</span><span>2</span><span>个基点。</span></p>\n<p><span>2</span><span>年期和</span><span>10</span><span>年期收益率之间的差距扩大至约</span><span>33</span><span>个基点。</span></p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CM\">加拿大帝国商业银行</a>全球</span><span>FICC</span><span>策略主管</span><span>Ian Pollick</span><span>表示:“很明显,市场希望在政治风险面前保持长期头寸。最终,收益率曲线的反应是有道理的。<strong>但是,收益率下跌能否持续取决于未来几日的外部影响</strong>,因为这并不是一个‘糟糕’的报告。”</span></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储9月能否降息?关键数据还在后头!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储9月能否降息?关键数据还在后头!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-05 23:08 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142771&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在美国劳动力市场报告喜忧参半之后,美债上涨,推动收益率下降,交易员们坚持押注美联储官员将在今年降低利率。\n对美联储政策前景变化更为敏感的两年期美债收益率一度下跌8个基点至4.62%,创下自4月1日以来的最低水平。尽管美国政府6月就业报告显示新增就业人数超出预期,但前几个月的数据被下修,且失业率上升。\n衍生品交易员对于2024年美国降息预期坚定不变。他们预计有约70%的概率决策者最早在9月就会降息。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142771&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0338e597675b93f29495cfd2dc224c20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142771&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2449296614","content_text":"在美国劳动力市场报告喜忧参半之后,美债上涨,推动收益率下降,交易员们坚持押注美联储官员将在今年降低利率。\n对美联储政策前景变化更为敏感的两年期美债收益率一度下跌8个基点至4.62%,创下自4月1日以来的最低水平。尽管美国政府6月就业报告显示新增就业人数超出预期,但前几个月的数据被下修,且失业率上升。\n衍生品交易员对于2024年美国降息预期坚定不变。他们预计有约70%的概率决策者最早在9月就会降息。对于整个2024年,合约预计总共有48个基点的降息。\nAmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示:“这是一个对美联储和美债市场友好的数据。美联储将对未来的就业市场保持高度警惕。”\n周五美国劳工统计局表示,非农就业人口上月增长20.6万,而前两个月的就业增长被下调了11.1万。失业率因更多人加入劳动力大军而升至4.1%,平均时薪增长放缓。\n尽管数据支持债券市场对美联储货币宽松周期开始的乐观预期,但这还不足以确定首次降息的具体时间。政策制定者已将基准利率维持在5.25%至5.50%区间长达一年。\nBlackRock Inc.的投资组合经理Jeffrey Rosenberg周五表示:“真正确定9月降息的关键是另一轮数据,更重要的是我们下周看到的通胀情况,显然还有下个月的情况。有一些交叉影响使得情况变得有点棘手。”\n下周的经济数据将包括6月消费者和生产者价格增长的读数。交易员还对政治风险保持警惕,因为拜登在最近辩论后的连任几率下降。\n短期美债收益率曲线的变动超过了长期的变动,基准10年期收益率下跌约6个基点至4.30%,而30年期债务的利率则下跌约2个基点。\n2年期和10年期收益率之间的差距扩大至约33个基点。\n加拿大帝国商业银行全球FICC策略主管Ian Pollick表示:“很明显,市场希望在政治风险面前保持长期头寸。最终,收益率曲线的反应是有道理的。但是,收益率下跌能否持续取决于未来几日的外部影响,因为这并不是一个‘糟糕’的报告。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324468296610080"}
精彩评论