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@孟浩：【投票】阿里发财报，你准备做多吗？

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<p></p> <p><b>先来说一下本次财报的预期</b></p> <p>华尔街分析师预期本次财报营收为864亿，EPS为7.507，净利润为181.54亿，对于下季度营收预期为1270亿。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fef851aae8f9dc432f2ae8bacd2a215\"></p> <p><b>阿里业务关注点</b></p> <p>下图为阿里巴巴各部分业务的对比，可以看到电商业务仍是阿里巴巴主营业务，增长最快的部分是云计算业务，云计算业务的增速在90%以上，基于阿里云计算在国内积极扩展市占率以及海外扩展，这部分业务将是阿里增长驱动之一。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227380f254289e665decbdc86d1bd4bf\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a81cd10b01411158c331380900987a\"></p> <p><b>估值表现</b></p> <p>之前喜欢把阿里和京东进行对比，现在看来无论从市值、业务还是各项指标，这两个标的已经有了不小的距离，我现在更愿意把亚马逊来与阿里作对比，因为二者在业务等方面均有很多相似之处。从市场规模来说亚马逊为7813亿，相当于2个阿里。从市盈率来说阿里为45，亚马逊为99，行业平均在97，阿里的市盈率低于行业平均值。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa77af7c3dafd15d5175dad0c447de03\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0332b5ab98b3f39cbdb97952402d1596\"></p> <p><b>分析师评级</b></p> <p>下图为分析师评级，共有50个机构参与评级，其中49个给与正面评价，平均目标价为220美元。相较于上季度，很多机构纷纷调低了阿里的目标价。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f9a5e63ee8c663162b8142e001a9909\"></p> <p><b>再来看看阿里财报后历史股价表现</b></p> 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa77af7c3dafd15d5175dad0c447de03\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0332b5ab98b3f39cbdb97952402d1596\"></p> <p><b>分析师评级</b></p> <p>下图为分析师评级，共有50个机构参与评级，其中49个给与正面评价，平均目标价为220美元。相较于上季度，很多机构纷纷调低了阿里的目标价。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f9a5e63ee8c663162b8142e001a9909\"></p> <p><b>再来看看阿里财报后历史股价表现</b></p> <p>根据彭博的历史数据，我们不难看出历史上阿里在2季度财报的表现为营收和EPS双超预期，但是股价小幅下跌。一般来说，因为大家有对3季度也就是双十一的预期，股价在财报之前会提前涨，而临近双十一，由于利好提前释放而出现下跌行情。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901db080fb608c6e23a1954c1d5807c0\"></p></body></html>","text":"阿里$(BABA)$将于11月2日（也就是明天）盘前发布截止到9月30日的财报，小耗子在这里想跟大家聊聊阿里财报，顺便想参考一下大家的意见操作一下，望大家不吝赐教。 先来说一下本次财报的预期 华尔街分析师预期本次财报营收为864亿，EPS为7.507，净利润为181.54亿，对于下季度营收预期为1270亿。 阿里业务关注点 下图为阿里巴巴各部分业务的对比，可以看到电商业务仍是阿里巴巴主营业务，增长最快的部分是云计算业务，云计算业务的增速在90%以上，基于阿里云计算在国内积极扩展市占率以及海外扩展，这部分业务将是阿里增长驱动之一。 估值表现 之前喜欢把阿里和京东进行对比，现在看来无论从市值、业务还是各项指标，这两个标的已经有了不小的距离，我现在更愿意把亚马逊来与阿里作对比，因为二者在业务等方面均有很多相似之处。从市场规模来说亚马逊为7813亿，相当于2个阿里。从市盈率来说阿里为45，亚马逊为99，行业平均在97，阿里的市盈率低于行业平均值。 分析师评级 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