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2021-02-04
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Emerging Markets May Already Have Reached Their Peak for 2021, Morgan Stanley Says
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Flows to the region hit an all-time high last week. “Euphoric” fund inflows have invariably been associated with market tops, and vice versa, they note.</p>\n<p>Already a Top?MSCI Emerging Markets Index USDSource: FactSetSept. 2020'21100011001200130014001500</p>\n<p>They list a number of factors why the index may have peaked. For one, thecopperprice is correcting, and that has a strong correlation with the index. Another is that central bank balance sheet growth of the G4 — the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japanand the European Central Bank — is likely to peak next month at over 50% growth, and then start to slow significantly. A measure of liquidity in China also is dropping off.</p>\n<p>The break-even inflation rate also peaked, in late January, and is now correcting, they add, which suggests a top in near term sentiment on reflation and reopening. Thedollar,which tends to move in the opposite direction to emerging markets, has stopped declining.</p>\n<p>There are reasons closer to home for why the index may have peaked. Earnings revisions are showing signs of stalling out. Also, South Korea’s relative performance peaked on Jan. 11, after outperforming by 41% since Mar. 19, 2020. Major peaks in South Korea’s relative performance tend to precede peaks in the broader index, the strategists say.</p>\n<p>TheiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETFtracks the emerging-market index.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Emerging Markets May Already Have Reached Their Peak for 2021, Morgan Stanley Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEmerging Markets May Already Have Reached Their Peak for 2021, Morgan Stanley Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-04 13:40 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/emerging-markets-may-already-have-reached-their-peak-for-2021-morgan-stanley-says-51612361255?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a little early in the year to be discussing peaks, but the top may have come and gone for a popular emerging-markets index, according to strategists atMorgan Stanley.\nMorgan Stanley strategists, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/emerging-markets-may-already-have-reached-their-peak-for-2021-morgan-stanley-says-51612361255?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/emerging-markets-may-already-have-reached-their-peak-for-2021-morgan-stanley-says-51612361255?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189978299","content_text":"It’s a little early in the year to be discussing peaks, but the top may have come and gone for a popular emerging-markets index, according to strategists atMorgan Stanley.\nMorgan Stanley strategists, led by Jonathan Garner, say theMSCI emerging market indexalready topped its year-end target of 1,330, though it has fallen back subsequently. Flows to the region hit an all-time high last week. “Euphoric” fund inflows have invariably been associated with market tops, and vice versa, they note.\nAlready a Top?MSCI Emerging Markets Index USDSource: FactSetSept. 2020'21100011001200130014001500\nThey list a number of factors why the index may have peaked. For one, thecopperprice is correcting, and that has a strong correlation with the index. Another is that central bank balance sheet growth of the G4 — the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japanand the European Central Bank — is likely to peak next month at over 50% growth, and then start to slow significantly. A measure of liquidity in China also is dropping off.\nThe break-even inflation rate also peaked, in late January, and is now correcting, they add, which suggests a top in near term sentiment on reflation and reopening. Thedollar,which tends to move in the opposite direction to emerging markets, has stopped declining.\nThere are reasons closer to home for why the index may have peaked. Earnings revisions are showing signs of stalling out. Also, South Korea’s relative performance peaked on Jan. 11, after outperforming by 41% since Mar. 19, 2020. Major peaks in South Korea’s relative performance tend to precede peaks in the broader index, the strategists say.\nTheiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETFtracks the emerging-market index.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/317314464"}
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