真是想多了，现在真实_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

真是想多了，现在真实情况是asml研制光刻机的速度已经跑到台积电的前面去了，所以asml要暂缓一下研发

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12:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"芯片产业“发动机”将熄火，ASML->台积电->苹果，供应链危","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442529897","media":"互联网乱侃秀","summary":"芯片产业“发动机”将熄火，ASML->台积电->苹果，供应链危是什么推动全球芯片产业进步的？也因为光刻机，所以整个芯片产业，其实构成了一条垄断的产业链，那就是ASML生产EUV光刻机，台积电从ASML采购EUV光刻机，制造了全球90%的先进芯片。这条产业链，最核心的“发动机”还是ASML的EUV光刻机，可以说，只要这个光刻机出现问题，一定会极大的冲击整个芯片产业的发展，因为没有备胎。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：芯片产业“发动机”将熄火，ASML-&gt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>-&gt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，供应链危</p><p>是什么推动全球芯片产业进步的？当然是科技，是市场需求，推动着苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>们研发一代又一代的先进芯片，然后台积电又制造一代又一代的芯片。</p><p>从28nm到14nm，再到10nm、5nm、3nm……似乎无止境一样。</p><p>但是，这些芯片工艺不断推进，加速迭代，从之前的几年一代，变成一年一代，又变成几年一代，什么是其最重要的“发动机”呢？</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2024_24/395F1BEC2BF26CDE934B13B7C319E22ADB5C1633_size37_w612_h394.jpg\"/></p><p>其实是光刻机，特别是进入7nm之后，芯片工艺的推进，全靠EUV光刻机，因为全球只有ASML一家能够研制出EUV光刻机。</p><p>如果ASML没有新款光刻机推出，旧款的EUV光刻机分辨率支撑达到极限之后，那么芯片工艺就无法前进了，只能原地踏步，因为分辨率无法前进了。</p><p>这些年，ASML推出一代又一代的EUV光刻机，从最原始的EUV，再到现在的标准EUV，再到下一代的High NA EUV，再到理论中的Hyper NA EUV……</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2024_24/C585D20323333246DA3555BD399CF58145013EE9_size29_w698_h505.jpg\"/></p><p>一代比一代强，一代比一代分辨率高，这一代又一代推进整个芯片产业进步。</p><p>也因为光刻机，所以整个芯片产业，其实构成了一条垄断的产业链，那就是ASML生产EUV光刻机，台积电从ASML采购EUV光刻机，制造了全球90%的先进芯片。</p><p>而苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、高通、英伟达等，研发出先进芯片后，又交给台积电制造。</p><p>这条产业链，最核心的“发动机”还是ASML的EUV光刻机，可以说，只要这个光刻机出现问题，一定会极大的冲击整个芯片产业的发展，因为没有备胎。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2024_24/E244D93000B753E30B7C5F94C906F971B9E6A0CE_size62_w719_h467.jpg\"/></p><p>但如今，这个产业链的核心，可能就要熄火了，因为EUV光刻机，发展到High NA EUV之后，也许没有了下一代，ASML自己都不确定了。</p><p>标准EUV光刻机，数值孔径NA=0.33，可打印13.5nm的线宽，High NA EUV光刻机，NA=0.55，可打印8nm线宽，用于2nm以下芯片。</p><p>ASML认为，理论上还有Hyper NA EUV，其NA=0.75，可以打印5nm以下线宽，用于制造1nm及以下芯片。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2024_24/9B57C77EA1AF4021454E22D6BB985145AB327F7E_size45_w990_h787.jpg\"/></p><p>但是ASML也不确定这种 Hyper NA EUV 能不能制造出来，甚至ASML认为，就算制造出来了，其成本高到无法量产，晶圆厂也不会花大价钱来买它。</p><p>所以Hyper NA EUV可能只是传说，也许永远也没有了，那么High NA EUV就是最终一代，也是芯片产业最后的“发动机”了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2024_24/388B895C86020C4D8B45E37195A8271C698C4A5D_size39_w758_h473.jpg\"/></p><p>那么很明显，以后这一条ASML-&gt;台积电-&gt;苹果/高通/英伟达等的芯片产业链，可能也会陷入危机之中了，因为没有光刻机推动，技术基本上就不会再进步了。</p><p>那么不管是ASML，还是台积电，亦或苹果、高通、英伟达等的垄断也会被打破，全球芯片产业都可能迎来变局或洗牌。</p><p>当然，这对我们而言是好事，因为目前先进工芯被美国垄断和掌控，这个链条里，中国大陆是被排除在外的，一旦洗牌，我们就有可能坐上牌桌了。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8aIWJJvTZdH><strong>互联网乱侃秀</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：芯片产业“发动机”将熄火，ASML->台积电->苹果，供应链危是什么推动全球芯片产业进步的？当然是科技，是市场需求，推动着苹果、高通们研发一代又一代的先进芯片，然后台积电又制造一代又一代的芯片。从28nm到14nm，再到10nm、5nm、3nm……似乎无止境一样。但是，这些芯片工艺不断推进，加速迭代，从之前的几年一代，变成一年一代，又变成几年一代，什么是其最重要的“发动机”呢？其实是光刻机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8aIWJJvTZdH\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159310":"芯片产业","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","AAPL":"苹果","SG9999004220.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Asia Dividend Equity Fund  SGD","LU1282649810.SGD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","03165":"华夏欧优股对冲","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8aIWJJvTZdH","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2442529897","content_text":"原标题：芯片产业“发动机”将熄火，ASML->台积电->苹果，供应链危是什么推动全球芯片产业进步的？当然是科技，是市场需求，推动着苹果、高通们研发一代又一代的先进芯片，然后台积电又制造一代又一代的芯片。从28nm到14nm，再到10nm、5nm、3nm……似乎无止境一样。但是，这些芯片工艺不断推进，加速迭代，从之前的几年一代，变成一年一代，又变成几年一代，什么是其最重要的“发动机”呢？其实是光刻机，特别是进入7nm之后，芯片工艺的推进，全靠EUV光刻机，因为全球只有ASML一家能够研制出EUV光刻机。如果ASML没有新款光刻机推出，旧款的EUV光刻机分辨率支撑达到极限之后，那么芯片工艺就无法前进了，只能原地踏步，因为分辨率无法前进了。这些年，ASML推出一代又一代的EUV光刻机，从最原始的EUV，再到现在的标准EUV，再到下一代的High NA EUV，再到理论中的Hyper NA EUV……一代比一代强，一代比一代分辨率高，这一代又一代推进整个芯片产业进步。也因为光刻机，所以整个芯片产业，其实构成了一条垄断的产业链，那就是ASML生产EUV光刻机，台积电从ASML采购EUV光刻机，制造了全球90%的先进芯片。而苹果、英伟达、高通、英伟达等，研发出先进芯片后，又交给台积电制造。这条产业链，最核心的“发动机”还是ASML的EUV光刻机，可以说，只要这个光刻机出现问题，一定会极大的冲击整个芯片产业的发展，因为没有备胎。但如今，这个产业链的核心，可能就要熄火了，因为EUV光刻机，发展到High NA EUV之后，也许没有了下一代，ASML自己都不确定了。标准EUV光刻机，数值孔径NA=0.33，可打印13.5nm的线宽，High NA EUV光刻机，NA=0.55，可打印8nm线宽，用于2nm以下芯片。ASML认为，理论上还有Hyper NA EUV，其NA=0.75，可以打印5nm以下线宽，用于制造1nm及以下芯片。但是ASML也不确定这种 Hyper NA EUV 能不能制造出来，甚至ASML认为，就算制造出来了，其成本高到无法量产，晶圆厂也不会花大价钱来买它。所以Hyper NA EUV可能只是传说，也许永远也没有了，那么High NA EUV就是最终一代，也是芯片产业最后的“发动机”了。那么很明显，以后这一条ASML->台积电->苹果/高通/英伟达等的芯片产业链，可能也会陷入危机之中了，因为没有光刻机推动，技术基本上就不会再进步了。那么不管是ASML，还是台积电，亦或苹果、高通、英伟达等的垄断也会被打破，全球芯片产业都可能迎来变局或洗牌。当然，这对我们而言是好事，因为目前先进工芯被美国垄断和掌控，这个链条里，中国大陆是被排除在外的，一旦洗牌，我们就有可能坐上牌桌了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":92,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/315316111249488"}