yyniao
2021-01-28
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@大家一起来炒股zqwar:
美联储停止一月REPO,导致暴跌
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In the case of a repo, a dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day at a slightly higher price. That small difference in price is the implicit overnight interest rate. Repos are typically used to raise short-term capital. They are also a common tool of central bank open market operations.</em></p><p>抄了一段英文解释。有点复杂。大概意思就是:一个类似借贷一样的债券。一般都是隔夜的。</p><p>美国的这种REPO一般是公司之间的或者银行和公司之间的。通常每日都会有非常大规模的REPO,下图所示,平均都在4T级别。所以美国对这种金融手段非常依赖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf4035d6e3b479236f971b2f3f9840ab\"></p><p>就像普通借贷一样,这个REPO也是有利息的,通常都在2-4之间。一般来说美联储如果来触碰这个REPO,肯定不是为了赚钱,而是为了调节货币供给和银行的拨备金。相当于借钱给一级市场。但由于非常短暂,所以是应急用的。</p><p>美联储接入REPO其实并不是这次疫情开始的。</p><p>2017年,17年耶伦开启紧缩政策。因为出现很多问题,19年从新宽松,但短期利率暴涨。当时的REPO利率可能是因为流动性不足的原因,增加到10%。美联储被迫介入。当时是提供了每月60B,在2019十月。2020年疫情到来,为了缓解流动性的不足,美联储加大了REPO力度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e8a4c8023efa219dbb6d8f502bd4cc6\"></p><p>可以看到,REPO利率在美联储无限宽松后,几乎降到了0。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81f68dd91fe5ac3eb2b58612daf316f\"></p><p>这是美联储给出的数据。其中one-month REPO被我标黄了。也就是说,只有这种每周一次的one month REPO取消了,其他的还都存在。</p><p>之前有没有发生过类似的事呢?</p><p>有的</p><p>2020年6月11日,美联储终止了3个月的REPO。</p><p><strong>New York Fed to halt 3-month repo operations through June 11</strong></p><p>The New York Fed will continue to conduct an overnight settlement repo operation each day as well as its one-month operations once per week, both for aggregate offered amounts of $500 billion.</p><p>这是一段当时的新闻,可以发现,和现在的情况非常类似。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12257773489c84776701cc2a5437816e\"></p><p>这是SP5006月11的截图。这里富图牛牛有点问题,不知道为啥时间老是慢一天。图中的10号就是11号。当时并没有崩盘,而是横盘了一阵就缓过来了。我觉得对这次的取消一月REPO有很大的借鉴作用。</p><p>毕竟最主要的宽松政策,1200亿/月,几乎0利率都没有取消。</p><p>所以接下来,我认为横盘的几率可能更大一些。毕竟最近涨的太疯了,压一压也好。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天暴跌。主要是美联储主席鲍威尔讲话了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8219ffb431648c94c6b250a9e5798660\"></p><p>讲话内容大致如下:</p><p>零利率,1200亿不变,准备结束逆回购(one month REPO)</p><p>之后暴跌,可以看到前面两条都和以前一样,也在继续增加流动性。所以主要问题出自最后一点“REPO”。</p><p>REPO</p><p><em>A repurchase agreement (repo) is a form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. In the case of a repo, a dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day at a slightly higher price. That small difference in price is the implicit overnight interest rate. Repos are typically used to raise short-term capital. They are also a common tool of central bank open market operations.</em></p><p>抄了一段英文解释。有点复杂。大概意思就是:一个类似借贷一样的债券。一般都是隔夜的。</p><p>美国的这种REPO一般是公司之间的或者银行和公司之间的。通常每日都会有非常大规模的REPO,下图所示,平均都在4T级别。所以美国对这种金融手段非常依赖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf4035d6e3b479236f971b2f3f9840ab\"></p><p>就像普通借贷一样,这个REPO也是有利息的,通常都在2-4之间。一般来说美联储如果来触碰这个REPO,肯定不是为了赚钱,而是为了调节货币供给和银行的拨备金。相当于借钱给一级市场。但由于非常短暂,所以是应急用的。</p><p>美联储接入REPO其实并不是这次疫情开始的。</p><p>2017年,17年耶伦开启紧缩政策。因为出现很多问题,19年从新宽松,但短期利率暴涨。当时的REPO利率可能是因为流动性不足的原因,增加到10%。美联储被迫介入。当时是提供了每月60B,在2019十月。2020年疫情到来,为了缓解流动性的不足,美联储加大了REPO力度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e8a4c8023efa219dbb6d8f502bd4cc6\"></p><p>可以看到,REPO利率在美联储无限宽松后,几乎降到了0。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81f68dd91fe5ac3eb2b58612daf316f\"></p><p>这是美联储给出的数据。其中one-month REPO被我标黄了。也就是说,只有这种每周一次的one month REPO取消了,其他的还都存在。</p><p>之前有没有发生过类似的事呢?</p><p>有的</p><p>2020年6月11日,美联储终止了3个月的REPO。</p><p><strong>New York Fed to halt 3-month repo operations through June 11</strong></p><p>The New York Fed will continue to conduct an overnight settlement repo operation each day as well as its one-month operations once per week, both for aggregate offered amounts of $500 billion.</p><p>这是一段当时的新闻,可以发现,和现在的情况非常类似。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12257773489c84776701cc2a5437816e\"></p><p>这是SP5006月11的截图。这里富图牛牛有点问题,不知道为啥时间老是慢一天。图中的10号就是11号。当时并没有崩盘,而是横盘了一阵就缓过来了。我觉得对这次的取消一月REPO有很大的借鉴作用。</p><p>毕竟最主要的宽松政策,1200亿/月,几乎0利率都没有取消。</p><p>所以接下来,我认为横盘的几率可能更大一些。毕竟最近涨的太疯了,压一压也好。</p></body></html>","text":"今天暴跌。主要是美联储主席鲍威尔讲话了。 讲话内容大致如下: 零利率,1200亿不变,准备结束逆回购(one month REPO) 之后暴跌,可以看到前面两条都和以前一样,也在继续增加流动性。所以主要问题出自最后一点“REPO”。 REPO A repurchase agreement (repo) is a form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. In the case of a repo, a dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day at a slightly higher price. That small difference in price is the implicit overnight interest rate. Repos are typically used to raise short-term capital. They are also a common tool of central bank open market operations. 抄了一段英文解释。有点复杂。大概意思就是:一个类似借贷一样的债券。一般都是隔夜的。 美国的这种REPO一般是公司之间的或者银行和公司之间的。通常每日都会有非常大规模的REPO,下图所示,平均都在4T级别。所以美国对这种金融手段非常依赖。 就像普通借贷一样,这个REPO也是有利息的,通常都在2-4之间。一般来说美联储如果来触碰这个REPO,肯定不是为了赚钱,而是为了调节货币供给和银行的拨备金。相当于借钱给一级市场。但由于非常短暂,所以是应急用的。 美联储接入REPO其实并不是这次疫情开始的。 2017年,17年耶伦开启紧缩政策。因为出现很多问题,19年从新宽松,但短期利率暴涨。当时的REPO利率可能是因为流动性不足的原因,增加到10%。美联储被迫介入。当时是提供了每月60B,在2019十月。2020年疫情到来,为了缓解流动性的不足,美联储加大了REPO力度。 可以看到,REPO利率在美联储无限宽松后,几乎降到了0。 这是美联储给出的数据。其中one-month REPO被我标黄了。也就是说,只有这种每周一次的one month REPO取消了,其他的还都存在。 之前有没有发生过类似的事呢? 有的 2020年6月11日,美联储终止了3个月的REPO。 New York Fed to halt 3-month repo operations through June 11 The New York Fed will continue to conduct an overnight settlement repo operation each day as well as its one-month operations once per week, both for aggregate offered amounts of $500 billion. 这是一段当时的新闻,可以发现,和现在的情况非常类似。 这是SP5006月11的截图。这里富图牛牛有点问题,不知道为啥时间老是慢一天。图中的10号就是11号。当时并没有崩盘,而是横盘了一阵就缓过来了。我觉得对这次的取消一月REPO有很大的借鉴作用。 毕竟最主要的宽松政策,1200亿/月,几乎0利率都没有取消。 所以接下来,我认为横盘的几率可能更大一些。毕竟最近涨的太疯了,压一压也好。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311563808","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":[".IXIC",".DJI","SPY"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2030,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/311709422"}
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