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2021-01-22

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2021-01-22
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This is especially true for the last four quarters.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>This is alarming because it looks a lot like a bubble.</li>\n</ul>\nAgree that when starting a conversation about the valuation of a company, first of all, it is necessary to determine what motivates investors who buy a share of such a company. In other words, the drivers of changes in capitalization should be clearly identified. Without this, any reasoning about the valuation is nothing more than a subjective opinion.\nMoreover, in the process of such analysis, it is possible to identify myths in which the majority believe. It is about such myths in the context of Apple's (AAPL) valuation that will be discussed.\nMyth #1: Apple stocks are bought for dividends.\nAt first glance, everything is simple and obvious. Apple is a company that consistently generates profits and pays dividends. Therefore, the value of its shares should be related to the potential amount of dividends the company is likely to pay in the future.\nLet's verify this statement by building a two-stageDividend Discount Model. In fact, this is a simple model based on the current forecast ofanalystsregarding the company's profit in the next decade. Otherwise, the model is essentially an extrapolation of the dynamics of Apple's financial performance.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00d3d58bbed940e2cbc56338d8e0f92\" tg-width=\"1808\" tg-height=\"795\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital for Apple:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752afd5733af47eee861731a3d802ec4\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"361\">Source: Author\nSome notes on the calculations:\n<ul>\n <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.1%). The final indicator amounted to 5.82%.</li>\n <li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (~1).</li>\n <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li>\n <li>In the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last six years (25%).</li>\n <li>In the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).</li>\n</ul>\nHere is the model itself:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a31462aa7cd7589784523129f1fd5b5\" tg-width=\"1303\" tg-height=\"554\">Source: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $67.This means that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Apple dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $67.\nMyth #2: Revenue is a key driver.\nSo, dividends clearly do not determine Apple's current capitalization. Then it is likely that investors classify Apple as a growth company that has not yet reached the limit of its quantitative growth. In this case, revenue should be the key driver of changes in the company's capitalization.\nLet's test this out by evaluating the quality of a statistical model that models Apple's capitalization based on growth-adjusted revenue.\nHere is the simulation result:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d47f123bb6eda87158d9ab820301a4\" tg-width=\"5000\" tg-height=\"3090\">Source: Author\nAnd here are the quality parameters of the model:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfa64249abfc4b92e1983355238ecf6\" tg-width=\"5000\" tg-height=\"3090\">Source: Author\nAs you can see, the quality of such a model is unsatisfactory (R^2=0.47).In other words, we cannot conclude that Apple's revenue parameters have a statistically significant effect on the company's capitalization.\nMyth #3: Profit is a key driver.\nLet us consider an alternative hypothesis according to which the parameters of EPS (absolute size and growth rate) significantly affect the company's capitalization.\nHere is the model:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb30ee1215d355b72b781c903a3e47d3\" tg-width=\"5000\" tg-height=\"3090\">Source: Author\nAnd here are the parameters:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277fe4bccb1470c1dcb1bde925715f9c\" tg-width=\"5000\" tg-height=\"3090\">Source: Author\nThis model is somewhat better than the previous one (R^2=0.55), but it is also unsatisfactory in terms of the distribution and autocorrelation of residuals.\nFact: Financial results do not affect Apple's capitalization.\nNow let's do something a little different...\nLet's try to model Apple's capitalization not based on its financial results. And as the only independent variable, we use the M2 money stock in the United States.\nHere is the model:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf62ebe848bfff94e81a50f27d642a9\" tg-width=\"5000\" tg-height=\"3090\">Source: Author\nHere are the parameters:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de797dd4bc0b17e7a46ddc2e5f38437\" tg-width=\"5000\" tg-height=\"3090\">Source: Author\nAs you can see, the quality (R^2=0.87) of this model turned out to be the best of all the proposed...\nPutting it all together\nIf in the past, we had set ourselves the task of predicting Apple's capitalization, then we would have achieved the best results simply based on the value of the M2 money stock in the United States, ignoring the company's financial results. This is especially true for the last four quarters.\nAgree, this is not normal. Because otherwise, the financial results that Apple publishes in a week will not affect the market.\nAnd this is alarming because it looks a lot like a bubble. Only a bubble can grow completely ignoring fundamental factors. This is exactly what we see in the case of Apple.\nThere remains one more alternative, that there is still some fundamental factor that has remained unaccounted for. But I haven't found this factor yet...","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Valuation Myths And Facts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Valuation Myths And Facts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-22 13:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4400237-apple-valuation-myths-and-facts>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nGiven the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Apple dividends does not justify the company's current price.\n\n\nFinancial results have only a weak impact on Apple's ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4400237-apple-valuation-myths-and-facts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4400237-apple-valuation-myths-and-facts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1159301924","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Apple dividends does not justify the company's current price.\n\n\nFinancial results have only a weak impact on Apple's capitalization. This is especially true for the last four quarters.\n\n\nThis is alarming because it looks a lot like a bubble.\n\nAgree that when starting a conversation about the valuation of a company, first of all, it is necessary to determine what motivates investors who buy a share of such a company. In other words, the drivers of changes in capitalization should be clearly identified. Without this, any reasoning about the valuation is nothing more than a subjective opinion.\nMoreover, in the process of such analysis, it is possible to identify myths in which the majority believe. It is about such myths in the context of Apple's (AAPL) valuation that will be discussed.\nMyth #1: Apple stocks are bought for dividends.\nAt first glance, everything is simple and obvious. Apple is a company that consistently generates profits and pays dividends. Therefore, the value of its shares should be related to the potential amount of dividends the company is likely to pay in the future.\nLet's verify this statement by building a two-stageDividend Discount Model. In fact, this is a simple model based on the current forecast ofanalystsregarding the company's profit in the next decade. Otherwise, the model is essentially an extrapolation of the dynamics of Apple's financial performance.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital for Apple:\nSource: Author\nSome notes on the calculations:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.1%). The final indicator amounted to 5.82%.\nI used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (~1).\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.\nIn the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last six years (25%).\nIn the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).\n\nHere is the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $67.This means that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Apple dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $67.\nMyth #2: Revenue is a key driver.\nSo, dividends clearly do not determine Apple's current capitalization. Then it is likely that investors classify Apple as a growth company that has not yet reached the limit of its quantitative growth. In this case, revenue should be the key driver of changes in the company's capitalization.\nLet's test this out by evaluating the quality of a statistical model that models Apple's capitalization based on growth-adjusted revenue.\nHere is the simulation result:\nSource: Author\nAnd here are the quality parameters of the model:\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, the quality of such a model is unsatisfactory (R^2=0.47).In other words, we cannot conclude that Apple's revenue parameters have a statistically significant effect on the company's capitalization.\nMyth #3: Profit is a key driver.\nLet us consider an alternative hypothesis according to which the parameters of EPS (absolute size and growth rate) significantly affect the company's capitalization.\nHere is the model:\nSource: Author\nAnd here are the parameters:\nSource: Author\nThis model is somewhat better than the previous one (R^2=0.55), but it is also unsatisfactory in terms of the distribution and autocorrelation of residuals.\nFact: Financial results do not affect Apple's capitalization.\nNow let's do something a little different...\nLet's try to model Apple's capitalization not based on its financial results. And as the only independent variable, we use the M2 money stock in the United States.\nHere is the model:\nSource: Author\nHere are the parameters:\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, the quality (R^2=0.87) of this model turned out to be the best of all the proposed...\nPutting it all together\nIf in the past, we had set ourselves the task of predicting Apple's capitalization, then we would have achieved the best results simply based on the value of the M2 money stock in the United States, ignoring the company's financial results. This is especially true for the last four quarters.\nAgree, this is not normal. Because otherwise, the financial results that Apple publishes in a week will not affect the market.\nAnd this is alarming because it looks a lot like a bubble. Only a bubble can grow completely ignoring fundamental factors. This is exactly what we see in the case of Apple.\nThere remains one more alternative, that there is still some fundamental factor that has remained unaccounted for. But I haven't found this factor yet...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":3367815,"commentId":"3367815","gmtCreate":1611303163965,"gmtModify":1611303163965,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":310831858,"objectIdStr":"310831858","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/310831858"}