LYC
2020-10-13
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3 Reasons To Buy BP
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At the macro level, a firming up in oil prices would quickly attract energy speculators again. Yet investors do not have the luxury of guessing when that will happen. Depending on luck has odds of 50/50. In energy investing, prospects are so dire that value investors should look elsewhere.</p> <p><img height=\"352\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/12/71188-16025351340444746.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></p> <p>What, if anything, might BP shareholders look forward to?</p> <p>There are 3 reasons to buy BP stock.</p> <h2>1. One-Time Impairment</h2> <p>In the second quarter (Q2/2020), BP recorded a significant impairment charge. This is big enough that it should reflect the headwinds in low energy prices ahead. BP took an $11.8 billion impairment charge and another $2 billion for non-operating charges. After adjusting for tax credits, inventory gains, and non-operating items, it lost $6.7 billion in the quarter. CFO Murray Auchincloss said on the conference call that the 10,000 job cuts will add $1.5 billion in restructuring charges for this year.</p> <p>The impairment charge is not the first major <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> in the last decade. Still, the company is managing its cash flow and continues to commit 60% of that in buybacks. If its balance sheet supports it, it will continue paying a dividend.</p> <p>In the last decade, BP had the flexibility to increase spending in exploration. For example, its peak exploration spent was $3.8 billion. That was when oil prices were $140 per barrel. Now that prices are so low, BP will curb exploration activities. It forecast spending of $300 million to $400 million annually.</p>\n<div></div> <p>Despite the charges, BP’s project startups are on track. For example, its Ghazeer project in Oman will start.</p> <h2>2. Pivot to Renewable Energy</h2> <p>Rosneft’s <span>(OTCPK:RNFTF)</span> criticism of BP and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) <span>(NYSE:RDS.B)</span> for pursuing renewables is a short term risk for investors. In the near term, the pandemic is curtailing energy demand. Staying at home to work cuts demand for driving, for example. So investors need only look at solar energy stocks like <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ENPH\">Enphase Energy</a> </strong>(ENPH), up five-fold from 52-week lows.</p> <p>More corporations are embracing solar energy. Because oil prices are so long, BP cannot rely solely on the commodity. The integrated energy conglomerate has the skills, structure, and organization to pivot towards renewable energy projects. It will strengthen the company’s brand as a “green” energy supplier, earning goodwill from consumers.</p> <p>Investors are enamored with hydrogen fuel supplier stocks. For example, <strong>Plug Power</strong> (PLUG) is up six-fold from 52-week lows. And <strong>Workhorse Group</strong> (WKHS) will supply electric delivery vans fueled by Plug Power. If investors are willing to pay a premium for such firms, then BP’s investments in the segment will bear fruit.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/12/saupload_a43a504dcf0ee0059e911d0c8082295d.png\" width=\"635\"/>Data by YCharts</figure></p> <p>Giulia Chierchia, the company’s Executive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VP..UK\">VP</a>, Strategy and Sustainability, said:</p> <blockquote><p>We believe in a world for both blue and green hydrogen and will focus on both in North America and Europe, targeting industrial and heavy-duty transport, as well as the Australian export market for green hydrogen. We see hydrogen playing a key role in our energy portfolio, a possible building block free fuels, we aim for a 10% share in core markets.</p></blockquote> <h2>3. Valuation</h2> <p>BP does not fare any better than the other energy conglomerates. For example, BP has better value than Royal Dutch and Exxon (XOM), but not by much.</p>\n<div></div> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/71188_16025350949808_rId8.png\"/></p> <p>Data courtesy of SA Premium</p> <p>Conversely, Royal Dutch has a higher EPS revision score as analysts forecast strength. Exxon scores the best on its growth prospects.</p> <p>In an EBITDA Multiples model, BP is worth at least $20:</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/71188_16025350949808_rId10.png\"/></p> <p>Data courtesy of finbox</p> <p>Investors may open the finbox link to adjust the EV/LTM EBITDA multiples to arrive at a different price target. At a 3.5x mid-point, BP’s 10% upside target is very conservative. If investors believe BP should trade similarly to its peers, a 5x EV/LTD EBITDA would imply an upside of almost 50%.</p> <p>Investing in BP and energy stocks is a pure guess at this time. Conservative investors may want to wait for oil prices to strengthen. A Covid-19 vaccine would end partial lockdowns around the world. This would drive oil demand higher and consequently lift BP’s prospects.</p>\n<span></span><span marketing_unit=\"default\"><p>Please [+]<strong>Follow</strong> me for coverage on deeply-discounted stocks. Click on the \"Follow\" button beside my name. <span>Join </span><strong>DIY investing</strong><span> today. </span><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/marketing/157806261848171188/image.png\"/></p></span><p><b>Disclosure:</b> <span>I am/we are long BP.</span> <span>I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.</span></p>\n<div></div></div><div><div></div><span><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"5.799999713897705 7.799999237060547 20.30000114440918 16.39999771118164\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M26.1 9.7c-.7.3-1.5.6-2.4.7.9-.5 1.5-1.3 1.8-2.3-.8.5-1.7.8-2.6 1-.8-.8-1.8-1.3-3-1.3-2.3 0-4.1 1.9-4.1 4.1 0 .3 0 .6.1.9-3.4-.2-6.5-1.8-8.5-4.3-.4.7-.7 1.4-.7 2.1 0 1.4.7 2.7 1.8 3.4-.7 0-1.3-.2-1.9-.5v.1c0 2 1.4 3.7 3.3 4.1-.3.1-.7.1-1.1.1-.3 0-.5 0-.8-.1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 2.9-1.4 1.1-3.2 1.8-5.1 1.8-.3 0-.7 0-1-.1 1.8 1.2 4 1.9 6.4 1.9 7.6 0 11.8-6.3 11.8-11.8v-.5c.8-.6 1.5-1.3 2.1-2.2zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"18\" viewbox=\"11.000001907348633 6.799999713897705 9.999998092651367 18.600000381469727\" width=\"10\"><path d=\"M20.6 6.8h-2.4c-2.7 0-4.4 1.8-4.4 4.6v2.1h-2.4c-.2 0-.4.2-.4.4v3c0 .2.2.4.4.4h2.4V25c0 .2.2.4.4.4h3.1c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-7.7h2.8c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-3c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1-.2-.1-.3-.1h-2.8v-1.8c0-.9.2-1.3 1.3-1.3h1.6c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4V7.1c0-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"6.200000286102295 6.699999809265137 19.5 18.700000762939453\" width=\"14\"><path d=\"M25.7 18.2v7.2h-4.2v-6.7c0-1.7-.6-2.8-2.1-2.8-1.2 0-1.8.8-2.1 1.5-.1.3-.1.6-.1 1v7H13s.1-11.4 0-12.6h4.2v1.8c.6-.9 1.5-2.1 3.8-2.1 2.7 0 4.7 1.8 4.7 5.7zM8.6 6.7c-1.4 0-2.4.9-2.4 2.2 0 1.2.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.5 0 2.4-1 2.4-2.2 0-1.2-.8-2.2-2.3-2.2zM6.5 25.4h4.2V12.8H6.5v12.6zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"4.5 6.499999523162842 22.900001525878906 18.999998092651367\" width=\"18\"><path d=\"M20.9 16.9c.1.2.1.3.1.5 0 .3-.1.6-.3.9-.2.2-.4.4-.7.5-.1 0-.3.1-.4.1-.3 0-.7-.1-.9-.3-.3-.2-.5-.5-.5-.8v-.3c0-.3.1-.6.3-.8.2-.2.4-.4.7-.5.2-.1.3-.1.5-.1.3 0 .6.1.8.3.1 0 .3.2.4.5zm-.9 3.7c-.1-.1-.3-.1-.4-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-1 .6-2.2.9-3.4.9-.9 0-1.8-.2-2.6-.6-.1 0-.3-.2-.4-.3-.1 0-.2-.1-.2-.1-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-.1.1-.2.1-.3.3-.1.1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .1 0 .2.1.4.1.1.1.2.3.3 1.1.8 2.5 1.1 3.8 1.1 1.2 0 2.4-.3 3.5-.8.1-.1.3-.2.5-.3.1-.1.2-.1.3-.2.1-.1.1-.2.2-.3v-.2c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3l-.3-.3zm-8-1.9c.2.1.3.1.5.1.4 0 .7-.2 1-.4.3-.2.5-.6.5-1v-.1c0-.4-.2-.7-.5-1-.3-.2-.6-.4-1-.4h-.3c-.5.1-.9.5-1.1 1 0 .1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .3.1.6.3.9.2.3.4.4.7.5zm15.4-3.6v.2c0 .6-.2 1.1-.5 1.5-.3.4-.7.8-1.1 1v.7c0 1.2-.4 2.4-1.1 3.3-1.3 1.8-3.4 2.8-5.4 3.3-1.1.3-2.2.4-3.4.4-1.7 0-3.4-.3-4.9-.9-1.6-.7-3.2-1.7-4.1-3.3-.5-.8-.8-1.8-.8-2.8v-.7c-.4-.2-.8-.6-1.1-1-.3-.4-.5-1-.5-1.5 0-.8.3-1.5.8-2s1.2-.9 2-.9h.2c.4 0 .8.1 1.1.2.3.1.6.3.9.5.1 0 .2-.1.3-.1 1.7-1 3.6-1.4 5.4-1.5 0-.9.1-1.9.6-2.7.4-.7 1-1.3 1.8-1.4.3-.1.6-.1.9-.1.8 0 1.6.2 2.3.5.3-.5.8-.9 1.3-1.1.3-.1.7-.2 1-.2.4 0 .7.1 1.1.2.5.2.9.5 1.2 1 .4.4.6.9.6 1.5v.3c-.1.7-.4 1.3-.9 1.7-.5.4-1.1.7-1.8.7H23c-.6 0-1.3-.4-1.7-.8-.4-.5-.7-1.1-.7-1.8v-.1c-.6-.3-1.3-.5-1.9-.5h-.3c-.5 0-.9.4-1.1.8-.3.6-.4 1.4-.4 2.1 1.8.1 3.7.6 5.3 1.5 0 0 .1 0 .1.1.1-.1.2-.2.4-.3.5-.3 1.1-.5 1.7-.5.3 0 .5 0 .8.1.6.2 1.1.5 1.5 1 .4.4.7 1 .7 1.6zm-5.4-6s0 .1 0 0c0 .4.2.7.4.9.2.2.5.4.8.4h.1c.3 0 .6-.1.9-.4.2-.2.4-.5.4-.8v-.1c0-.3-.2-.6-.4-.9-.2-.2-.6-.4-.9-.4H23c-.3.1-.5.2-.7.4-.2.4-.3.6-.3.9zm-13.6 5c-.2-.1-.5-.2-.8-.2h-.1c-.4 0-.7.2-1 .4-.3.3-.5.6-.5 1v.1c0 .2.1.5.2.7.1.2.2.3.3.4.5-1 1.2-1.8 1.9-2.4zm16.1 4.5c0-.8-.3-1.7-.8-2.3-1-1.3-2.4-2.2-4-2.7-.3-.1-.6-.2-.9-.2-.9-.3-1.9-.4-2.8-.4-1.2 0-2.5.2-3.7.6-1.5.5-3 1.4-4 2.7-.5.7-.8 1.5-.8 2.3 0 .3 0 .6.1.9.2.7.5 1.3 1 1.8.4.5 1 1 1.6 1.3.1.1.3.2.4.2 1.7.9 3.6 1.3 5.4 1.3h1c1.9-.2 3.8-.7 5.4-1.9.5-.4.9-.8 1.3-1.3s.6-1.1.7-1.7c0-.2.1-.4.1-.6zm1.5-3.3c0-.2 0-.4-.1-.6-.1-.3-.3-.5-.6-.6-.3-.1-.6-.2-.8-.2-.3 0-.5.1-.8.2.8.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.4.1-.1.3-.3.3-.4.1-.3.2-.6.2-.8zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"10\" viewbox=\"4.699999809265137 8.300000190734863 22.599998474121094 15.40000057220459\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4.7 8.3v2.5L16 17l11.3-6.1V8.3H4.7zm0 3.7v11.7h22.6V12L16 18.1 4.7 12z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"87.43199920654297 227.56399536132812 422.6809997558594 382.7259826660156\" width=\"20\"><g><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><path d=\"M87.432,332.244v193.283h85.424v84.763h251.855v-84.763h85.402V332.244H87.432z M383.309,568.021H214.237 v-105.67h169.072V568.021z M464.543,418.101h-42.929v-42.929h42.929V418.101z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></g></g><rect fill=\"#FFFFFF\" height=\"84.536\" width=\"253.609\" x=\"175.93\" y=\"227.564\"></rect></g></svg></span></div></div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Buy BP\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-13 13:48 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378758-3-reasons-to-buy-bp><strong>Chris Lau</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBP continued an ugly downtrend since posting quarterly results.Pivot to renewables a positive development.Fair value and upside of ~50% explained.Since reporting second-quarter losses and a 50%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378758-3-reasons-to-buy-bp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BP":"英国石油","BP..UK":"BP PLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378758-3-reasons-to-buy-bp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2075338158","content_text":"SummaryBP continued an ugly downtrend since posting quarterly results.Pivot to renewables a positive development.Fair value and upside of ~50% explained.Since reporting second-quarter losses and a 50% haircut on its dividend, BP plc (BP) is on what looks like a permanent downtrend. At the macro level, a firming up in oil prices would quickly attract energy speculators again. Yet investors do not have the luxury of guessing when that will happen. Depending on luck has odds of 50/50. In energy investing, prospects are so dire that value investors should look elsewhere. What, if anything, might BP shareholders look forward to? There are 3 reasons to buy BP stock. 1. One-Time Impairment In the second quarter (Q2/2020), BP recorded a significant impairment charge. This is big enough that it should reflect the headwinds in low energy prices ahead. BP took an $11.8 billion impairment charge and another $2 billion for non-operating charges. After adjusting for tax credits, inventory gains, and non-operating items, it lost $6.7 billion in the quarter. CFO Murray Auchincloss said on the conference call that the 10,000 job cuts will add $1.5 billion in restructuring charges for this year. The impairment charge is not the first major one in the last decade. Still, the company is managing its cash flow and continues to commit 60% of that in buybacks. If its balance sheet supports it, it will continue paying a dividend. In the last decade, BP had the flexibility to increase spending in exploration. For example, its peak exploration spent was $3.8 billion. That was when oil prices were $140 per barrel. Now that prices are so low, BP will curb exploration activities. It forecast spending of $300 million to $400 million annually.\n Despite the charges, BP’s project startups are on track. For example, its Ghazeer project in Oman will start. 2. Pivot to Renewable Energy Rosneft’s (OTCPK:RNFTF) criticism of BP and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) for pursuing renewables is a short term risk for investors. In the near term, the pandemic is curtailing energy demand. Staying at home to work cuts demand for driving, for example. So investors need only look at solar energy stocks like Enphase Energy (ENPH), up five-fold from 52-week lows. More corporations are embracing solar energy. Because oil prices are so long, BP cannot rely solely on the commodity. The integrated energy conglomerate has the skills, structure, and organization to pivot towards renewable energy projects. It will strengthen the company’s brand as a “green” energy supplier, earning goodwill from consumers. Investors are enamored with hydrogen fuel supplier stocks. For example, Plug Power (PLUG) is up six-fold from 52-week lows. And Workhorse Group (WKHS) will supply electric delivery vans fueled by Plug Power. If investors are willing to pay a premium for such firms, then BP’s investments in the segment will bear fruit. Data by YCharts Giulia Chierchia, the company’s Executive VP, Strategy and Sustainability, said: We believe in a world for both blue and green hydrogen and will focus on both in North America and Europe, targeting industrial and heavy-duty transport, as well as the Australian export market for green hydrogen. We see hydrogen playing a key role in our energy portfolio, a possible building block free fuels, we aim for a 10% share in core markets. 3. Valuation BP does not fare any better than the other energy conglomerates. For example, BP has better value than Royal Dutch and Exxon (XOM), but not by much.\n Data courtesy of SA Premium Conversely, Royal Dutch has a higher EPS revision score as analysts forecast strength. Exxon scores the best on its growth prospects. In an EBITDA Multiples model, BP is worth at least $20: Data courtesy of finbox Investors may open the finbox link to adjust the EV/LTM EBITDA multiples to arrive at a different price target. At a 3.5x mid-point, BP’s 10% upside target is very conservative. If investors believe BP should trade similarly to its peers, a 5x EV/LTD EBITDA would imply an upside of almost 50%. Investing in BP and energy stocks is a pure guess at this time. Conservative investors may want to wait for oil prices to strengthen. A Covid-19 vaccine would end partial lockdowns around the world. This would drive oil demand higher and consequently lift BP’s prospects.\nPlease [+]Follow me for coverage on deeply-discounted stocks. Click on the \"Follow\" button beside my name. Join DIY investing today. Disclosure: I am/we are long BP. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/309328099"}
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