蚂蚁集团中签概率猜测表

小斯新报道

2020-10-28

本表纯属偶然瞎猜，如有雷同，纯属巧合。

由于某些原因，预计申请1手的人会比较多，最终甲组人数有望突破100万。在此情况下，一手中签率可能达不到100%这么高，但是80%还是有戏的（参考农夫山泉和保利物业）

由于大甲组的优势可能会被一手党摊平，甲尾预计11-12手（更多那就再好不过啦），因此拉平了斜率，稳中一手的概率估计5-6手。

对乙组来说，若超过8万人，则竞争会相当激烈，乙头人数有望占比40%以上，则大概14-15手左右，再往下的变数太大，随便看看就好。

对普通散户融资党来说，不算认购手续费的情况下，打和点在7%以下，但是乙组网上，如果你用的是融资，可能打和点很高。这也是为什么我认为乙组大部分都会集中在头部，因为高金额融资不划算。

$蚂蚁集团(06688)$ $蚂蚁集团(688688)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$

蚂蚁集团启动A+H上市计划

身为全球最大独角兽——蚂蚁集团近年几乎每过一阵就会“被上市”一次。这次，靴子终于落地。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

恒跌
2020-10-28
恒跌
茅台还是有人喝，百姓还是有人割！！！你们有钱，经济崩盘一切皆有可能了！
- 爱发红包的虎妞:
  666！押韵之王就是你啦[你懂的]
再饥饿也得忍着稳住
2020-10-28
再饥饿也得忍着稳住
流通性小，增值空间很大。虽然你们嘴上喊割韭菜，但是他妈的身体很诚实。在打新圈没有不想打的，除非是傻🐔吧。尼玛背后养老金都在支撑。能亏钱国家答应吗？二狗子们
- 股神183回复再饥饿也得忍着稳住:
  没错，我的养老金也在里面
- 再饥饿也得忍着稳住回复克伦希尔:
  好像是国家几十只养老金基金
- 克伦希尔:
  养老金支撑请问是指股市养老金的人吗？
- 狼牙2020:
  话糙理不糙😄👍
小斯新报道
2020-10-28
小斯新报道
@逆向玩家
- 逆向玩家:
  没有后怕，因为我就没有成功逃顶哈哈哈哈，靠的是进场早才没有亏，但是盈利缩水60%。所以对A股带动H股能力不迷信。也只有估值合理质地优秀的标的A/H溢价率几乎没有的，比如平安，比亚迪H也是今年新能源板块爆发了才跟上的。蚂蚁的确优秀，现阶段也算稀缺，但已经贵了啊……科创板的朋友不用担心，港股的就……
- 小斯新报道回复逆向玩家:
  你提这个名字……心里会有一些后怕吗哈哈哈哈哈
- 逆向玩家回复小斯新报道:
  中……中芯？哈哈哈哈哈哈，同时发的是没有过。但港股外资的影响力还是比较大。不过承销商大摩和瑞信的估值区间下限都是超了2w1亿，是屁股决定嘴巴？哈哈哈哈哈。是只能等开奖，什么估值都是艺术。
- 小斯新报道回复逆向玩家:
  开盘之后再看吧，毕竟a+h同时的都没见过
- 逆向玩家回复小斯新报道:
  我觉得他说的可能有一定道理，有些散户可能不会开盘即走，要做时间的朋友的。但是可能港股好的且价位合理的标的不少吧，在目前这种估值水平下我不是很有长持的打算。
君宝的脚
2020-10-28
君宝的脚
不懂就问，为什么乙头560万的资金中14-15手，5600万的资金只有40-41手？为啥不是140-150手？
- 逆向玩家回复君宝的脚:
  大资金的话，你有多户就多个乙头，这样成本最低。如果没有多户那还是注意控制成本，乙组性价比最高是乙头。本次打新最佳策略是多户现金一手或几手。所以是户多终胜而非本多终胜。
- 小斯新报道回复君宝的脚:
  不融资还好，融资就有成本了，会摊薄收益。
  但是即便不融资，也会失去部分资金的机会成本。所以相比较来说乙头性价比高
- 君宝的脚回复小斯新报道:
  感谢指导，所以乙头是相对来说比较合适的吗？我有几千万的资金再往上打是不是不划算了
- 小斯新报道:
  中签概率是边际递减的，港交所招股小朋友
夏天216
2020-10-29
夏天216
预测不如多给点份额啊
- 小斯新报道:
  那你可以跟虎妞聊聊？
喵喵静
2020-10-28
喵喵静
吃相有点难看！！透支那么多！！不留一点给肉给散户 [无语] [无语]
- 小斯新报道:
  可能还是留了一点点吧，几根毛~

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[无语] [无语]","text":"吃相有点难看！！透支那么多！！不留一点给肉给散户 [无语] [无语]","html":"吃相有点难看！！透支那么多！！不留一点给肉给散户 [无语] [无语]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":2976040,"commentId":"2976040","gmtCreate":1603871169780,"gmtModify":1603871169780,"authorId":279327367386116,"author":{"id":279327367386116,"idStr":"279327367386116","authorId":279327367386116,"name":"小斯新报道","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae5ca6ae332a96f7211e19a07d9c529","vip":2,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":308312808,"objectIdStr":"308312808","type":1,"supId":2976039,"supIdStr":"2976039","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"可能还是留了一点点吧，几根毛~","text":"可能还是留了一点点吧，几根毛~","html":"可能还是留了一点点吧，几根毛~"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/308312808"}