捕风捉影
05-20
这么高的市盈率不是舌灿莲花就能够降下来的，所以不用等潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳！
Buying This Magnificent Stock at $74 Could Be Like Buying Amazon in 2016
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":307949153055048,"tweetId":"307949153055048","gmtCreate":1716204741650,"gmtModify":1716211574739,"author":{"id":4165666435033410,"idStr":"4165666435033410","authorId":4165666435033410,"authorIdStr":"4165666435033410","name":"捕风捉影","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>这么高的市盈率不是舌灿莲花就能够降下来的，所以不用等潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳！</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>这么高的市盈率不是舌灿莲花就能够降下来的，所以不用等潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳！</p></body></html>","text":"这么高的市盈率不是舌灿莲花就能够降下来的，所以不用等潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳！","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307949153055048","repostId":2436122764,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2436122764","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1716195600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2436122764?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-20 17:00","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Buying This Magnificent Stock at $74 Could Be Like Buying Amazon in 2016","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2436122764","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Amazon stock has soared fivefold since 2016, but if you missed out on those gains, Sea Limited might offer another chance.","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Sea Limited is a triple threat in the digital economy, operating across e-commerce, gaming, and financial services.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Its stock looks very cheap right now, following a steep decline after pandemic restrictions ended in 2021.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Sea bears some resemblance to Amazon in its earlier days, and its stock has the potential to soar in the coming years.</div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p><strong>Amazon </strong><span>(AMZN<span> 0.58%</span>)</span> was founded in 1994 to sell products using the Internet. Since then, it has become the dominant player in the e-commerce industry. However, the company has also expanded into other areas, such as cloud computing, streaming, and digital advertising.</p><p>Shares of Amazon have climbed more than fivefold since 2016, and while e-commerce remains the company's largest source of revenue, its other businesses have played a notable role in that value creation.</p><p><strong>Sea Limited</strong> <span>(SE<span> 3.25%</span>)</span> is on a similar path to Amazon, although at a much earlier stage. E-commerce is the company's core segment, but it's also finding success in other areas of the digital economy, such as gaming and financial services.</p><p>Sea trades at about $74 per share as of this writing (valuing the company at $42.4 billion), but I think it has the potential to soar fivefold in the coming years. So, investors who missed out on Amazon might want to grab this opportunity with both hands.</p><h2>A triple threat in the digital economy</h2><p>Amazon was an early mover in e-commerce in the U.S. and Europe. Sea is based in Singapore and focuses on serving Southeast Asian markets, which are at an earlier stage in the digital transition compared to the U.S. It owns a hybrid consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer marketplace called Shopee, which is the source of most of its e-commerce revenue.</p><div><div></div></div><p>Like Amazon, Sea is currently focused on optimizing Shopee's logistics network (SPX Express) through automation and operational improvements to deliver products more quickly and bring down costs. During the first quarter of 2024, 70% of Shopee orders were delivered within three days, and its cost per order fell 15% across Asia. According to Amazon, faster delivery times encourage consumers to order more frequently because they grow more confident in receiving products within a predictable timeframe.</p><p>Sea's digital financial services segment is headlined by SeaMoney, and it's another important driver of Shopee's success. Not only does it offer digital bank accounts and consumer loans (including the buy now, pay later variety), but it also lends money to Shopee merchants to accelerate their growth. At the end of Q1, SeaMoney had $3.3 billion in total loans on its books, up 28.7% year over year, signaling strong demand.</p><p>Sea also owns Garena, a leading game development studio responsible for global smash-hits like <em>Free Fire</em> and <em>Call of Duty: Mobile</em>. It experienced a consistent decline in users after 2021 when pandemic-related lockdowns and social restrictions ended. But the segment stabilized throughout 2023, and in Q1 2024, Garena reported 594.7 million quarterly active users, up 21% year over year.</p><p>The strong result was driven by a 24% increase in monthly active users on Free Fire, the most downloaded mobile game in the world last quarter.</p><div><div></div></div><div><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F777542%2Ftwo-friends-taking-a-break-from-shopping-to-sit-at-a-table-smiling-while-checking-one-of-their-smartphones.jpg&op=resize&w=700\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/777542/two-friends-taking-a-break-from-shopping-to-sit-at-a-table-smiling-while-checking-one-of-their-smartphones.jpg&w=300&op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/777542/two-friends-taking-a-break-from-shopping-to-sit-at-a-table-smiling-while-checking-one-of-their-smartphones.jpg&w=1000&op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/777542/two-friends-taking-a-break-from-shopping-to-sit-at-a-table-smiling-while-checking-one-of-their-smartphones.jpg&w=2000&op=resize 2000w\"/><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p></div><h2>Sea's growth just accelerated in a big way</h2><p>Sea is coming off a challenging couple of years. Its business lost momentum when global interest rates began to soar in 2022 because consumers suddenly found themselves with less money in their pockets. As a result, the company aggressively cut costs in 2023, placing further pressure on its revenue growth, which came in at just 4.9% for the year, a substantial deceleration from the triple-digit growth rates it delivered previously.</p><p>But Sea has opened 2024 on much better footing. Its digital entertainment segment remained a laggard with revenue shrinking 15.1% year over year despite the increase in users. However, its e-commerce business -- which is responsible for the majority of the company's total revenue -- generated solid growth of 32.9%. Sea's digital financial services segment also made a positive contribution, up 21.0%.</p><p>Overall, Sea increased total revenue 22.8% to $3.7 billion. That growth rate was more than four times faster than its 2023 growth rate.</p><p>There is one glaring reason for the strong top-line result: Sea increased its Q1 marketing spending a whopping 92.3% year over year. And despite continuing to trim all its other costs, that was enough to lift its total operating expenses 14.8% higher.</p><div><div></div></div><p>That did create a small problem, though. Sea generated net income (profit) of $162.6 million in 2023, a huge improvement over its eye-watering $1.6 billion <em>loss</em> in 2022. In other words, its cost cuts had the desired effect. But by increasing its operating expenses in Q1 2024, its bottom line sank back into the red to the tune of $23 million.</p><p>That's a tiny loss on such a large amount of revenue, and Sea has $8.6 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments on hand, so it can certainly afford it. But it's something investors should monitor because it would be great to see accelerating revenue growth <em>while also</em> maintaining profitability.</p><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"341761\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"2.32\" average_volume=\"7,009,610\" company_name=\"Sea Limited\" current_price=\"73.76\" daily_high=\"74.33\" daily_low=\"71.77\" default_period=\"YTD\" dividend_yield=\"N/A\" exchange=\"NYSE\" fifty_two_week_high=\"74.33\" fifty_two_week_low=\"32.25\" gross_margin=\"43.40\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/SE.png\" market_cap=\"$39B\" pe_ratio=\"1966.93\" percent_change=\"3.25\" symbol=\"SE\" volume=\"2,440\"></app></div><h2>Why Sea stock could soar fivefold over the long-term</h2><p>As I mentioned, Sea is valued at $42.4 billion. Based on the company's trailing-12-month revenue of $13.7 billion, its stock trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.1. That's near the cheapest level since Sea became a public company in 2017, and it's substantially below its peak P/S ratio of 22.9.</p><p>That peak valuation was unsustainable, not to mention a little irrational, because it was based on the premise that Sea would continue growing its revenue at triple-digit rates (as it did from 2019 to 2021) for the long term. However, Sea doesn't have to grow that quickly for its stock to deliver a great return for investors.</p><div><div></div></div><p>If Sea can increase its annual revenue at a compound annual rate of 17.5% for the next 10 years, its top line will reach about $68.7 billion by 2034. At its current P/S ratio, that would value the company at $199.2 billion, which implies a fivefold return from here.</p><p>We know Sea's revenue growth accelerated to 22.8% in Q1, so it's already performing above the threshold. Plus, I think there is scope for its P/S ratio to tick higher if that growth continues, providing even more potential upside to the stock. Amazon's P/S ratio, for example, has <em>doubled</em> since late 2022, thanks to the company's accelerating revenue growth, so there is precedent.</p><p>Therefore, investors who missed out on buying Amazon stock in 2016 -- right before it soared fivefold -- might find a comparable opportunity in Sea right now.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying This Magnificent Stock at $74 Could Be Like Buying Amazon in 2016</title>\n<style 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following a steep decline after ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/20/buying-magnificent-stock-74-buying-amazon-in-2016/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F777542%2Ftwo-friends-taking-a-break-from-shopping-to-sit-at-a-table-smiling-while-checking-one-of-their-smartphones.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{"LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","SG9999013486.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (USD) INC A","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) 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ASEAN Fund SGD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","SE":"Sea Ltd","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999004360.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Thrift Fund SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SG9999005177.SGD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Southeast Asia Trust A Acc SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999002604.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/20/buying-magnificent-stock-74-buying-amazon-in-2016/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2436122764","content_text":"Sea Limited is a triple threat in the digital economy, operating across e-commerce, gaming, and financial services.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIts stock looks very cheap right now, following a steep decline after pandemic restrictions ended in 2021.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSea bears some resemblance to Amazon in its earlier days, and its stock has the potential to soar in the coming years.\n\nAmazon (AMZN 0.58%) was founded in 1994 to sell products using the Internet. Since then, it has become the dominant player in the e-commerce industry. However, the company has also expanded into other areas, such as cloud computing, streaming, and digital advertising.Shares of Amazon have climbed more than fivefold since 2016, and while e-commerce remains the company's largest source of revenue, its other businesses have played a notable role in that value creation.Sea Limited (SE 3.25%) is on a similar path to Amazon, although at a much earlier stage. E-commerce is the company's core segment, but it's also finding success in other areas of the digital economy, such as gaming and financial services.Sea trades at about $74 per share as of this writing (valuing the company at $42.4 billion), but I think it has the potential to soar fivefold in the coming years. So, investors who missed out on Amazon might want to grab this opportunity with both hands.A triple threat in the digital economyAmazon was an early mover in e-commerce in the U.S. and Europe. Sea is based in Singapore and focuses on serving Southeast Asian markets, which are at an earlier stage in the digital transition compared to the U.S. It owns a hybrid consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer marketplace called Shopee, which is the source of most of its e-commerce revenue.Like Amazon, Sea is currently focused on optimizing Shopee's logistics network (SPX Express) through automation and operational improvements to deliver products more quickly and bring down costs. During the first quarter of 2024, 70% of Shopee orders were delivered within three days, and its cost per order fell 15% across Asia. According to Amazon, faster delivery times encourage consumers to order more frequently because they grow more confident in receiving products within a predictable timeframe.Sea's digital financial services segment is headlined by SeaMoney, and it's another important driver of Shopee's success. Not only does it offer digital bank accounts and consumer loans (including the buy now, pay later variety), but it also lends money to Shopee merchants to accelerate their growth. At the end of Q1, SeaMoney had $3.3 billion in total loans on its books, up 28.7% year over year, signaling strong demand.Sea also owns Garena, a leading game development studio responsible for global smash-hits like Free Fire and Call of Duty: Mobile. It experienced a consistent decline in users after 2021 when pandemic-related lockdowns and social restrictions ended. But the segment stabilized throughout 2023, and in Q1 2024, Garena reported 594.7 million quarterly active users, up 21% year over year.The strong result was driven by a 24% increase in monthly active users on Free Fire, the most downloaded mobile game in the world last quarter.Image source: Getty Images.Sea's growth just accelerated in a big waySea is coming off a challenging couple of years. Its business lost momentum when global interest rates began to soar in 2022 because consumers suddenly found themselves with less money in their pockets. As a result, the company aggressively cut costs in 2023, placing further pressure on its revenue growth, which came in at just 4.9% for the year, a substantial deceleration from the triple-digit growth rates it delivered previously.But Sea has opened 2024 on much better footing. Its digital entertainment segment remained a laggard with revenue shrinking 15.1% year over year despite the increase in users. However, its e-commerce business -- which is responsible for the majority of the company's total revenue -- generated solid growth of 32.9%. Sea's digital financial services segment also made a positive contribution, up 21.0%.Overall, Sea increased total revenue 22.8% to $3.7 billion. That growth rate was more than four times faster than its 2023 growth rate.There is one glaring reason for the strong top-line result: Sea increased its Q1 marketing spending a whopping 92.3% year over year. And despite continuing to trim all its other costs, that was enough to lift its total operating expenses 14.8% higher.That did create a small problem, though. Sea generated net income (profit) of $162.6 million in 2023, a huge improvement over its eye-watering $1.6 billion loss in 2022. In other words, its cost cuts had the desired effect. But by increasing its operating expenses in Q1 2024, its bottom line sank back into the red to the tune of $23 million.That's a tiny loss on such a large amount of revenue, and Sea has $8.6 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments on hand, so it can certainly afford it. But it's something investors should monitor because it would be great to see accelerating revenue growth while also maintaining profitability.Why Sea stock could soar fivefold over the long-termAs I mentioned, Sea is valued at $42.4 billion. Based on the company's trailing-12-month revenue of $13.7 billion, its stock trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.1. That's near the cheapest level since Sea became a public company in 2017, and it's substantially below its peak P/S ratio of 22.9.That peak valuation was unsustainable, not to mention a little irrational, because it was based on the premise that Sea would continue growing its revenue at triple-digit rates (as it did from 2019 to 2021) for the long term. However, Sea doesn't have to grow that quickly for its stock to deliver a great return for investors.If Sea can increase its annual revenue at a compound annual rate of 17.5% for the next 10 years, its top line will reach about $68.7 billion by 2034. At its current P/S ratio, that would value the company at $199.2 billion, which implies a fivefold return from here.We know Sea's revenue growth accelerated to 22.8% in Q1, so it's already performing above the threshold. Plus, I think there is scope for its P/S ratio to tick higher if that growth continues, providing even more potential upside to the stock. Amazon's P/S ratio, for example, has doubled since late 2022, thanks to the company's accelerating revenue growth, so there is precedent.Therefore, investors who missed out on buying Amazon stock in 2016 -- right before it soared fivefold -- might find a comparable opportunity in Sea right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":74,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/307949153055048"}
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