$拼多多(PDD)$_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

$拼多多(PDD)$ 回本就卖、持股体验太不好了🙀

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花式
03-22
花式
上次拼多多炸裂的财报让市场直接改了对拼多多的估值方式——从看综合PE，到TEMU和主站业务单独估值；而另外一个作用是资金开始会对这样一个“魔鬼执行力”的组织产生无脑信仰。
而近期Titktok事件挤压掉Temu估值，正好给了市场能基于公司核心价值所在的主站业务进行判断，少受上下波动的Temu估值影响的一个良机。
当前地缘环境下，为了给自己足够的安全垫，确实可以不考虑Temu的估值（看跨境商业模式的经验来看，跨境电商的估值弹性也就是在数百亿美金上下）。
市场在持续给主站业务的成长性溢价明显不足，按照以上逻辑，给出的主站300亿人民币上下的经营利润，对应的税后主站年化利润已是千亿人民币。
即使是按照主站2024年之后，收入结束了超速增长，进入与GMV增速10-15%的区间范围，那么给一个15-20PE也是合情合理的。
按照最低的15 PE来算，拼多多主站已经是一个2200亿估值的生意，这次预期太高了，等市场反应过来应该会回一点。如果一季度的财报不错的话，投资者应该会有信心。到时候回2200没什么问题。
花式
03-22
花式
吃正股根本就不用担心，马上就要降息了，国内经济也在增长，拼多多以后的业绩应该不会太差。迟早会长回来的。
ZDAN
03-22
ZDAN
成长依然可期，长线还是看好的💪

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