aqing
02-21
I couldn't agree more.
Buy Moderna's Turnaround Thesis While Market Pessimism Lasts
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":276225682112632,"tweetId":"276225682112632","gmtCreate":1708468034178,"gmtModify":1708468035544,"author":{"id":3439807817472944,"idStr":"3439807817472944","authorId":3439807817472944,"authorIdStr":"3439807817472944","name":"aqing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>I couldn't agree more.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>I couldn't agree more.</p></body></html>","text":"I couldn't agree more.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276225682112632","repostId":2412170315,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2412170315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1708437600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2412170315?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-20 22:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Buy Moderna's Turnaround Thesis While Market Pessimism Lasts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2412170315","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Accordingly, the recent release underscored a lower-than-expected efficacy, indicating Moderna's \"RSV vaccine might be less effective than initially thought.\" As a result, I believe the market is likely pricing in execution risks in its pipeline, affecting the competitiveness of its RSV vaccine. Moderna investors should be keenly aware of the criticality of its RSV vaccine as a crucial growth vector as the company looks forward following the success of its COVID franchise. Notwithstanding the caution, Moderna is still expected to receive FDA approval for its RSV vaccine, helping to alleviate some concerns. At a recent January conference, Moderna management highlighted that it \"anticipates regulatory approvals for its RSV vaccine beginning in the first half of 2024.\" Therefore, investors must carefully assess management's commentary about the data release at its upcoming earnings conference. Given the recent updates, a","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Moderna has surged 40% from its November 2023 lows through last week's close. Buyers returned to buy the \"bad news\" from its Q3 earnings reset.</li><li>The recent worse-than-anticipated data release for its RSV vaccine contributed to a recent pullback in MRNA.</li><li>However, it shouldn't affect the anticipated FDA approval for its RSV vaccine in 2024.</li><li>Moderna investors can expect a more aggressive product rollout over the next two years, potentially benefiting longer-term investors.</li><li>I explain why MRNA's long-term bottom in November 2023 suggests the recovery has already started.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244086916/photo/in-this-photo-illustration-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-seen-with-the-moderna-logo-in-the-background.jpg?b=1&s=594x594&w=0&k=20&c=vK8-q3c-dImIyXAKxMA1VIEaTx_yg_TGyz2p-rVQiaQ=\"/></picture><figcaption><p>NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Moderna Stock Has Surged From Its November Lows</h2> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a> (<span>NASDAQ:MRNA</span>) investors head into MRNA's pivotal fourth-quarter earnings release on February 22 with bated breath. Following Moderna's third-quarter earnings release in early November<span> 2023, MRNA bottomed out as buyers returned. As a result, it does seem like MRNA could have taken out its long-term lows, as Moderna reset its COVID revenue expectations at its FQ3 scorecard. I last </span>updated MRNA investors in my September 2023 article<span>, seeing an opportunity to remain bullish. However, I also highlighted uncertainties relating to its pipeline, underscoring that MRNA could remain as a \"show me\" story. Therefore, healthcare investors are expected to stay cautious, although I was confident it could emerge from its battering.</span></p> <p>However, my bullish thesis has not worked out, suggesting that negative investor sentiments have prevailed over the past six<span> months. Despite that, MRNA remains markedly above its November lows ($62.6 level), up more than 40% through last week's close. As a result, the market could have shaken out investors who pressed the panic button following its Q3 release, as longer-term investors returned to stem the downward pressure, helping MRNA bottom out decisively.</span></p> <p>Should MRNA investors who didn't manage to add more exposure in November 2023 return at the current levels following its recent pullback after the February 2024 release of the data concerning Moderna's RSV vaccine? Accordingly, the recent release underscored a lower-than-expected efficacy, indicating Moderna's \"RSV vaccine might be less effective than initially thought.\" As a result, I believe the market is likely pricing in execution risks in its pipeline, affecting the competitiveness of its RSV vaccine.</p> <p>Moderna investors should be keenly aware of the criticality of its RSV vaccine as a crucial growth vector as the company looks forward following the success of its COVID franchise. Notwithstanding the caution, Moderna is still expected to receive FDA approval for its RSV vaccine, helping to alleviate some concerns. At a recent January conference, Moderna management highlighted that it \"anticipates regulatory approvals for its RSV vaccine beginning in the first half of 2024.\" Therefore, investors must carefully assess management's commentary about the data release at its upcoming earnings conference. Given the recent updates, analysts are also expected to pepper management with critical questions concerning its efficacy and impact on its competitiveness. With that in mind, I expect investors to remain cagey about buying up MRNA aggressively as we head into its FQ4 earnings release. Consequently, it should provide more opportunities for high-conviction investors to load up while the market remains pessimistic.</p> <p>Investors need to consider that Moderna has been aggressively reinvesting the success of its COVID vaccine into its pipeline. Therefore, Moderna aims to rapidly broaden its one-product commercial portfolio over the next three years, capitalizing on the benefits of its MRNA-based therapies. Consequently, Moderna should be well-placed to become a platform company, with developments across RSV, oncology, COVID/Flu combo vaccine, and rare diseases. Moderna's progress with Merck (MRK) on a personalized cancer vaccine holds substantial promise, as seen with Pfizer's (PFE) increasing focus on oncology innovation. With 15 product launches planned over the next five years by Moderna, longer-term MRNA investors could reap the rewards of buying the battered MRNA shares if MRNA had bottomed out in November 2023.</p> <h2>MRNA Is No Longer Expensive</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/2/19/51630113-17083989070438638.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>MRNA Quant Grades (TradingView)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>MRNA is also no longer valued expensively and assigned a more favorable \"C+\" valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant. Its momentum has also improved, as seen in the \"C+\" momentum grade. Therefore, it's arguable that the selling pressure on MRNA has subsided, providing us with more robust opportunities to buy significant dips on MRNA as we look forward to its longer-term opportunities.</p> <p>However, MRNA's \"F\" growth grade will likely not attract shorter-term investors, as the company expects to break even only in 2026. Consequently, it suggests another two solid years of reinvestment and R&D to bring its pipeline to fruition.</p> <h2>Is MRNA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/2/19/51630113-1708399147082016.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>MRNA price chart (monthly, long-term) (TradingView)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>I gleaned that MRNA's long-term bottom in November 2023 seems sound. However, there isn't a clear bear trap (false downside breakdown) to underpin my bullish bias, suggesting MRNA investors must continue to anticipate downside volatility.</p> <p>However, with the company expected to have reset its COVID revenue expectations in Q3, I don't expect MRNA to fall toward its late 2023 lows. Therefore, I believe longer-term investors should return to undergird a possible post-earnings pullback if Moderna issues a worse-than-expected outlook. Still, MRNA's surge from its November 2023 lows should highlight why I assessed peak pessimism has likely been priced in, which could bolster a more constructive recovery momentum moving ahead.</p> <p><em>Rating: Maintain Buy.</em></p> <p><em>Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Please always apply independent thinking and note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.</em></p> <h4>I Want To Hear From You</h4> <div></div> <p>Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Moderna's Turnaround Thesis While Market Pessimism Lasts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Moderna's Turnaround Thesis While Market Pessimism Lasts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-20 22:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671473-buy-moderna-stock-turnaround-thesis-while-market-pessimism-lasts><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Moderna has surged 40% from its November 2023 lows through last week's close. Buyers returned to buy the \"bad news\" from its Q3 earnings reset.The recent worse-than-anticipated data release for its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671473-buy-moderna-stock-turnaround-thesis-while-market-pessimism-lasts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4501":"段永平概念","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","MRK":"默沙东","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU2468319806.SGD":"MANULIFE GF HEALTHCARE \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","PFE":"辉瑞","IE00BFTCPJ56.SGD":"Janus Henderson Global Life Sciences A Acc SGD","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","SG9999013999.USD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE FUND (USDHDG) INC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","SGXZ57979304.SGD":"United Global Healthcare A Acc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1023059063.AUD":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4139":"生物科技","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4007":"制药","LU1057294990.SGD":"Blackrock World Healthscience A2 SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","IE00B2B36J28.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I1\" (USD) INC","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671473-buy-moderna-stock-turnaround-thesis-while-market-pessimism-lasts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2412170315","content_text":"Moderna has surged 40% from its November 2023 lows through last week's close. Buyers returned to buy the \"bad news\" from its Q3 earnings reset.The recent worse-than-anticipated data release for its RSV vaccine contributed to a recent pullback in MRNA.However, it shouldn't affect the anticipated FDA approval for its RSV vaccine in 2024.Moderna investors can expect a more aggressive product rollout over the next two years, potentially benefiting longer-term investors.I explain why MRNA's long-term bottom in November 2023 suggests the recovery has already started.NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images Moderna Stock Has Surged From Its November Lows Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) investors head into MRNA's pivotal fourth-quarter earnings release on February 22 with bated breath. Following Moderna's third-quarter earnings release in early November 2023, MRNA bottomed out as buyers returned. As a result, it does seem like MRNA could have taken out its long-term lows, as Moderna reset its COVID revenue expectations at its FQ3 scorecard. I last updated MRNA investors in my September 2023 article, seeing an opportunity to remain bullish. However, I also highlighted uncertainties relating to its pipeline, underscoring that MRNA could remain as a \"show me\" story. Therefore, healthcare investors are expected to stay cautious, although I was confident it could emerge from its battering. However, my bullish thesis has not worked out, suggesting that negative investor sentiments have prevailed over the past six months. Despite that, MRNA remains markedly above its November lows ($62.6 level), up more than 40% through last week's close. As a result, the market could have shaken out investors who pressed the panic button following its Q3 release, as longer-term investors returned to stem the downward pressure, helping MRNA bottom out decisively. Should MRNA investors who didn't manage to add more exposure in November 2023 return at the current levels following its recent pullback after the February 2024 release of the data concerning Moderna's RSV vaccine? Accordingly, the recent release underscored a lower-than-expected efficacy, indicating Moderna's \"RSV vaccine might be less effective than initially thought.\" As a result, I believe the market is likely pricing in execution risks in its pipeline, affecting the competitiveness of its RSV vaccine. Moderna investors should be keenly aware of the criticality of its RSV vaccine as a crucial growth vector as the company looks forward following the success of its COVID franchise. Notwithstanding the caution, Moderna is still expected to receive FDA approval for its RSV vaccine, helping to alleviate some concerns. At a recent January conference, Moderna management highlighted that it \"anticipates regulatory approvals for its RSV vaccine beginning in the first half of 2024.\" Therefore, investors must carefully assess management's commentary about the data release at its upcoming earnings conference. Given the recent updates, analysts are also expected to pepper management with critical questions concerning its efficacy and impact on its competitiveness. With that in mind, I expect investors to remain cagey about buying up MRNA aggressively as we head into its FQ4 earnings release. Consequently, it should provide more opportunities for high-conviction investors to load up while the market remains pessimistic. Investors need to consider that Moderna has been aggressively reinvesting the success of its COVID vaccine into its pipeline. Therefore, Moderna aims to rapidly broaden its one-product commercial portfolio over the next three years, capitalizing on the benefits of its MRNA-based therapies. Consequently, Moderna should be well-placed to become a platform company, with developments across RSV, oncology, COVID/Flu combo vaccine, and rare diseases. Moderna's progress with Merck (MRK) on a personalized cancer vaccine holds substantial promise, as seen with Pfizer's (PFE) increasing focus on oncology innovation. With 15 product launches planned over the next five years by Moderna, longer-term MRNA investors could reap the rewards of buying the battered MRNA shares if MRNA had bottomed out in November 2023. MRNA Is No Longer Expensive MRNA Quant Grades (TradingView) MRNA is also no longer valued expensively and assigned a more favorable \"C+\" valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant. Its momentum has also improved, as seen in the \"C+\" momentum grade. Therefore, it's arguable that the selling pressure on MRNA has subsided, providing us with more robust opportunities to buy significant dips on MRNA as we look forward to its longer-term opportunities. However, MRNA's \"F\" growth grade will likely not attract shorter-term investors, as the company expects to break even only in 2026. Consequently, it suggests another two solid years of reinvestment and R&D to bring its pipeline to fruition. Is MRNA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold? MRNA price chart (monthly, long-term) (TradingView) I gleaned that MRNA's long-term bottom in November 2023 seems sound. However, there isn't a clear bear trap (false downside breakdown) to underpin my bullish bias, suggesting MRNA investors must continue to anticipate downside volatility. However, with the company expected to have reset its COVID revenue expectations in Q3, I don't expect MRNA to fall toward its late 2023 lows. Therefore, I believe longer-term investors should return to undergird a possible post-earnings pullback if Moderna issues a worse-than-expected outlook. Still, MRNA's surge from its November 2023 lows should highlight why I assessed peak pessimism has likely been priced in, which could bolster a more constructive recovery momentum moving ahead. Rating: Maintain Buy. Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Please always apply independent thinking and note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified. I Want To Hear From You Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/276225682112632"}
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