大陆赴台旅游数量大减。

$携程网(CTRP)$昨天的新闻，赴台旅游大减，携程周三公布年中报，数据可能会下滑，有没有敢赌财报的？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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光之翼
2016-08-29
光之翼
总是要旅游的，不去台湾就去日本，东南亚啊
- 雪老虎回复赵笨三:
  入境日本游客已经连续三年增长了，比2010年已经增加了近四倍。而日本游受制于其内部旅游巴士和酒店业的饱和程度，持续不停再增长显然不科学。我们更应该看日本市场下滑的幅度是否合理，而不是只看到下滑。
- 光之翼回复赵笨三:
  这不是得空途牛吗？
- 赵笨三:
  前段时间日本也说了中国大陆旅游数量大减。看看吧，试着空了5手，赌赌财报
中钙大灰狼
2016-08-29
中钙大灰狼
台湾游客大减早就开始发生了，并不稀奇，国内旅游大盘才重要，知道这个季度光一个迪士尼给各OTA贡献了多少么？
- 中钙大灰狼回复雪老虎:
  点赞
- 雪老虎:
  由于在经济环境不如预期的情况下，最先出现下滑的就是消费类指数。尤其是各大OTA的主流消费层级区间是经济活跃度能力最强的年轻消费群体和中产阶级。这部分群体会根据事实的收入情况下调消费类支出预期。这个才是OTA最大可能营收低于预期的核心问题。只要经济环境稳定，一个台湾还是一个日本出现旅游人次的下滑都不足以影响到整个旅游市场或者出行、酒店业的营收状况。另外，迪士尼开业是在Q2尾声，不足以影响这季财报。
赵笨三
2016-08-29
赵笨三
我做短线看看的，途牛现在价格已经低位了，空了没多少空间了我觉得

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