Leisure Work With Silver Spoon

Leisure Work With Silver Spoon

08/07/2018, Tue, Sunny, Air Polluted

Summary：Quiet and uneventful session except oil riding a rollercoaster. The new round of supply begin from tonight.

 

Euro Session:

After Friday's post NFP rally , the market took a rest in a tight range within Asia session. Volume came in extremely thin , which was less than half of 20 DMA. No data meaning ahead, but the auction began from Tue would sure earned the focus.

 

EU continued as a muted session. Most EU equities almost opened flat as the same as the EGBs. Except for BTP rebounded about 2 bps after 2 day's sell-off. Sterling slipped toward a 10-month low after U.K. International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the chances of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal was as high as 60 percent while EUR was relatively resilient despite Di Maio said EU deficit limit can't block government program.

 

Economy data:

2:00, GE June factory order -4% mom, prior 2.6%; -0.8% yoy , prior 4.4%.

3:30, GE July construction PMI 50,rpior 53

4:30, Eurozone Aug sentix investor confidence 14.7 vs 13.4, prior 12.1.

US Session:

I seldom talked about oil only because the information asymmetry is crucial between inside our country and on the street. But based on Bloomberg , I managed to figure out how the oil price ride a rollercoaster overnight. Around 10:00, US formally announced it is re-imposing non-oil sanctions on Iran, which sent oil price as high as 69.76. Right in the midnight, Bloomberg reported that Iran President Rouhani said Iran is open to negotiations if US could be "sincere", sending oil back to where it started to rise. On the contrary to oil market, FX, UST and equity traded moderately. GBP and EUR stabilized somewhat while the long-end of UST once rallied with Iran sanction and retreated to where when US session began. Indu, SPX and CCMP closed higher as investors applauded a strong US earnings season with results from Berkshire Hathaway impressing and Facebook lifting Nasdaq after a report it was planning new services—— In my gut, the fundamental of FACEBOOK has changed and its reasonable target price should be around 150 instead of 185. The positive gains were broadly based as 9 of the S&P's 11 major industry sectors advanced, with the technology index, which rose 0.6% and the financial sector, which gained 0.4%, providing the biggest boosts to the benchmark.

Economy data:

No

Key Data And Events Ahead:

GE Trade, IP

FR Trade

UK house price ( Given GBP is still under and close to 1.3000, it could be very sensitive to the print.)

US JOLTs

US 34bn 3yr

Comments:

Without tie-1 or tie-2 data, the sessions overnight could be the most quiet one I have ever seen in this summer. Under the background of A share bleeding so hard, the idea of trade tension tend to ease jumped into my mind. NAFTA was going well, US/EU negotiations could be regarded as family quarrel ,even some top-level conversation across the pacific was said to re-engage. With the mid-term elections only three months away, it is reasonable to assume the Trump needs a deal as kind a proof of his adequateness. If so , CSI 300 should definitely bottom today.

 

 

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近期重要时间点：

8月9日，美日贸易谈判

8月17日，公众200bn清单提交书面请求截止日

8月20-23日，200bn听证会

8月25日，Jackson Hole 研讨会

9月5日，200bn听证会后申诉材料提交截止日

9月13日，ECB议息

9月26日，FOMC

9月，日本LDP选举

9月27r日，意大利提交财政预算案

10月25日,ECB议息

10月31日，BOJ议息

11月6日，美国中期选举开始

11月8日，FOMC

11月11日，美国阅兵

12月13日，ECB议息

12月20日，FOMC

12月22日，改革开放40周年

2019年3月29日，脱欧谈判截止

Disclaimer：This material was prepared in private name and out of party time hobby,definately based upon facts and robust analysis with delicate consideration of highly professionality.But with no means to conduct any trade , and before using the contents of this note in any internal or external communication, please ensure you are comfortable and fully aware this could not be sufficient enough as any action base.

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