Explained by 10Yr Yield

Explained by 10Yr Yield

08/08/2018， Wed，Rainny， Air Polluted

Summary：Another subdue summer session and the market even tired to re

act to trade tension.

Euro Session:

Another slow grind summer session in Asia time. China daily reported that the government will carry out policy to stabilize investment growth and credit support, especially on infrastructure, to ease the concerns about the economy growth slowing down. A share finally rebounded after bleeding so many days. With the date of Sep 3rd impeding, we should take potential fund inflow into consideration. MSCI China A-Share Inclusion, which was first announced in June 2017, will take full effect on that day. Following the inclusion, 0.73% of the MSCI Emerging Market Index will be represented by China A-Share, which is expected to result in $300 billion of inflow. Within my daily life, I can strongly feel the attitude difference towards A share between the domestic and foreign investors.

 

Europe's risk-on tone gets an assist from the China stock gains obviously. Equities opened higher with most EGBs almost flat. Good GE trade and UK house price finally injected some pulse into EUR and GBP and tightened the spread between core and periphery.

Economy data:

2:00, GE June IP -0.9% mom vs -0.5% mom, prior 2.6% revised down to 2.4%;2.5% yoy vs 3.0%, prior 3.1% revised down to 3.0%.

GE June trade balance 21.8 bn vs 20.9 bn , prior 19.74bn

2:45, FR June Trade balance -6.24bn vs -5.52.

3:30, UK July Halifax house price 1.4% mom vs 0.2% mom, prior 0.3% revised up to 0.9%;3.3% yoy vs 2.7% , prior 1.8%

 

US Session:

Market traded in a slightly heavy tone. UST grinded downward aided by decent corporate issuance and the bid to equities. At 1:00,The $34bn 3y auction demand was bad with the 5th consecutive tail and cleared at 2.765% vs 2.763 WI (Indirect accepted 42.7%, direct accepted 12.1%, dealers taking down 45.2%). After US cash closed, U.S. said to begin imposing 25% duties on an additional $16 billion in Chinese imports on Aug 23rd

 

 

Economy data:

Jun. JOLTS Job Openings were 6662m from 6638m. The Job opening rate was unchanged at 4.3%.

Jun. Consumer Credit was $10.2bn vs. $15.0bn expected.

Key Data And Events Ahead:

26bn 10YR

Comments:

Right now the market reaction towards the 16bn additional tariffs could say it is well expected. So the retaliatory tariffs of the same magnitude will likely go into effect on the same day. Up till now, the trade tension could finally find some new normal: escalated for around 2 weeks and appease for 2 weeks. No one has the priority to comprise first , which makes it a ever-lasting process until it really hurts.

ps: 1 Poly would take over STEINWAY ! 2、I just checked the data in the chart below. Although the reality is scastic, all of them were reaiiable.

个人微信zhangke8639，欢迎同业交换名片。公众号更新速度快一点儿....排版也好一点点儿....

近期重要时间点：

8月9日，美日贸易谈判

8月17日，公众200bn清单提交书面请求截止日

8月20-23日，200bn听证会

8月25日，Jackson Hole 研讨会

9月3日，第二批A股纳入MSCI

9月5日，200bn听证会后申诉材料提交截止日

9月13日，ECB议息

9月26日，FOMC

9月，日本LDP选举

9月27日，意大利提交财政预算案

10月25日,ECB议息

10月31日，BOJ议息

11月6日，美国中期选举开始

11月8日，FOMC

11月11日，美国阅兵

12月13日，ECB议息

12月20日，FOMC

12月22日，改革开放40周年

2019年3月29日，脱欧谈判截止

Appendix：his t overnight

0807 1740 The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!

0807 1850 Ohio, vote today for Troy Balderson for Congress. His opponent, controlled by Nancy Pelosi, is weak on Crime, the Border, Military, Vets, your 2nd Amendment - and will end your Tax Cuts. Troy will be a great Congressman. #MAGA

0807 2205 RT @EricTrump: Ohio make sure to get out and vote today! We need Troy Balderson in Congress. Visit https://t.co/ypMnbPQzqk to find your polling location. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/vP5owuTYVr

0808 0225 Today, on the 236th anniversary of the Purple Heart, we honor the members of our Armed Forces for serving as the vanguard of American democracy and freedom around the world. #PurpleHeartDay https://t.co/NghmQ4BOKh

Disclaimer：This material was prepared in private name and out of party time hobby,definately based upon facts and robust analysis with delicate consideration of highly professionality.But with no means to conduct any trade , and before using the contents of this note in any internal or external communication, please ensure you are comfortable and fully aware this could not be sufficient enough as any action base.

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