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Freight Recessions Crush Teetering Trucking Companies, This Time, Yellow
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Every Freight recession takes out already t","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"951px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>shaunl</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>Prolonging the downturn of for-hire truckers is the growth of private fleets, such as Walmart’s (WMT) and Amazon’s (AMZN) which eat into their share.</strong></p> <p>Every Freight recession takes out already teetering trucking companies, and this time, it was long-teetering and<span> bailed-out less-than-truckload carrier Yellow (</span>YELL<span>), the </span>largest trucker ever to file for bankruptcy liquidation<span>. During the last freight recession in 2019, a slew of trucking companies were liquidated, including truckload carrier </span>Celadon, which was brought down by accounting fraud<span>, the largest truckload carrier ever to get liquidated in bankruptcy court.</span></p> <p>This freight recession, which started a little over a year ago, came as consumers switched some spending from goods to services, such as travels, and services aren’t transported by truck. And it was then made worse as companies, from manufacturers to retailers, began destocking to bring their inventories back in line, after they’d over-ordered during the<span> chaotic era of shortages, confounding levels of congestion, chaos, and huge spikes in freight rates. And when all this stuff finally arrived, the world had moved on.</span></p> <h2><strong>Private fleets eat share of for-hire truckers, prolonging the for-hire downturn</strong></h2> <p>Private fleets – such as Walmart’s gigantic fleet of trucks, or the Amazon trucks – have grown to over half of Class 8 tractor capacity, according to the analysis by Cass, and they’re eating into demand that would have been handled by for-hire trucking companies. This expansion of the private fleets, according to Cass, is prolonging the downturn of the for-hire market.</p> <p>“We think it’s unlikely that [for-hire] industry capacity will broadly tighten until pressure from private fleet growth eases, which looks unlikely this year,” Cass said.</p> <p>In terms of shipment volume in the for-hire market, the Cass Freight Index – which is concentrated on trucking but includes rail and other modes of transportation – fell again in July, to the worst July since July 2020, and July 2016, which had been in the middle of another freight recession (fat red line in the chart below).</p> <p>Year-over-year, the index was down 8.9%, and compared to the peak in this cycle, in May 2021, it was down 12%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/15/saupload_US-Cass-2023-08-14-freight-index-shipments.png\"/> </picture><figcaption></figcaption></figure></p> <p>We’ve heard similar messages from UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX). UPS reported a 9.9% drop in daily package volume for Q2, with June volume down 12.2%. FedEx reported an 18% drop in average daily shipments in its quarter ended May 31.</p> <p>The Cass Freight Index for shipments tracks the for-hire market. Truckload shipments represent over half of the dollar amounts in the index, with less-than-truckload shipments in second place, followed by rail shipments, parcel services (such as UPS and FedEx), and others. It does not include private fleets, commodities, and new vehicles.</p> <h2><strong>Freight rates plunge back to earth, but are still a lot higher than they were</strong></h2> <p>Truckload spot and contract rates, not including fuel and other charges, fell for the 14th month in a row in July, on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were down by 12.7% year-over-year, and by 15.8% from the peak in May 2022, which pushed them back to where they’d been in February 2021, according to the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/15/saupload_US-Cass-2023-08-14-linehaul-index.png\"/> </picture><figcaption></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The Cass Inferred Freight Rates Index, which does include fuel charges, dropped again in July and has plunged by 21% from the peak of the spike in June 2022. But it’s not like freight suddenly got cheap: The index is still up by 21% from February 2020, before the spike began, and has thereby unwound about 60% of the up-spike.</p> <p>The red line represents the three-month moving average that irons out the month-to-month ups and downs.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/15/saupload_US-Cass-2023-08-14-inferred-freight-rates.png\"/> </picture><figcaption></figcaption></figure></p> <h2><strong>Diesel, after the plunge, is rising again</strong></h2> <p>The Cass Inferred Freight Rates Index includes fuel charges, and the price of diesel at the pump has been on a trip!</p> <p>The price of diesel plunged by about $2 per gallon on average across the US from the peak of the spike in June 2022 to the bottom of the decline in June 2023. This plunge contributed to the decline in freight rates.</p> <p>But the plunge ended at the end of June, and since that low point, the average price of diesel has risen by nearly $0.60 a gallon, according to EIA data today, though it remains far below where it had been a year ago.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/15/saupload_US-diesel-price-2023-08-14_.png\"/> </picture><figcaption></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Original Post</em></p> <div></div> <p><strong>Editor's Note:</strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Freight Recessions Crush Teetering Trucking Companies, This Time, Yellow</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFreight Recessions Crush Teetering Trucking Companies, This Time, Yellow\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-15 22:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4628586-freight-recessions-crush-teetering-trucking-companies-this-time-yellow><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>shaunl Prolonging the downturn of for-hire truckers is the growth of private fleets, such as Walmart’s (WMT) and Amazon’s (AMZN) which eat into their share. Every Freight recession takes out already ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4628586-freight-recessions-crush-teetering-trucking-companies-this-time-yellow\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1404531423/image_1404531423.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","UPS":"联合包裹","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","YELLQ":"Yellow Corporation","BK4220":"综合零售","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","WMT":"沃尔玛","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4232":"货物陆运","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","FDX":"联邦快递","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","YELL":"Yellow Corporation","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4628586-freight-recessions-crush-teetering-trucking-companies-this-time-yellow","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2359451778","content_text":"shaunl Prolonging the downturn of for-hire truckers is the growth of private fleets, such as Walmart’s (WMT) and Amazon’s (AMZN) which eat into their share. Every Freight recession takes out already teetering trucking companies, and this time, it was long-teetering and bailed-out less-than-truckload carrier Yellow (YELL), the largest trucker ever to file for bankruptcy liquidation. During the last freight recession in 2019, a slew of trucking companies were liquidated, including truckload carrier Celadon, which was brought down by accounting fraud, the largest truckload carrier ever to get liquidated in bankruptcy court. This freight recession, which started a little over a year ago, came as consumers switched some spending from goods to services, such as travels, and services aren’t transported by truck. And it was then made worse as companies, from manufacturers to retailers, began destocking to bring their inventories back in line, after they’d over-ordered during the chaotic era of shortages, confounding levels of congestion, chaos, and huge spikes in freight rates. And when all this stuff finally arrived, the world had moved on. Private fleets eat share of for-hire truckers, prolonging the for-hire downturn Private fleets – such as Walmart’s gigantic fleet of trucks, or the Amazon trucks – have grown to over half of Class 8 tractor capacity, according to the analysis by Cass, and they’re eating into demand that would have been handled by for-hire trucking companies. This expansion of the private fleets, according to Cass, is prolonging the downturn of the for-hire market. “We think it’s unlikely that [for-hire] industry capacity will broadly tighten until pressure from private fleet growth eases, which looks unlikely this year,” Cass said. In terms of shipment volume in the for-hire market, the Cass Freight Index – which is concentrated on trucking but includes rail and other modes of transportation – fell again in July, to the worst July since July 2020, and July 2016, which had been in the middle of another freight recession (fat red line in the chart below). Year-over-year, the index was down 8.9%, and compared to the peak in this cycle, in May 2021, it was down 12%. We’ve heard similar messages from UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX). UPS reported a 9.9% drop in daily package volume for Q2, with June volume down 12.2%. FedEx reported an 18% drop in average daily shipments in its quarter ended May 31. The Cass Freight Index for shipments tracks the for-hire market. Truckload shipments represent over half of the dollar amounts in the index, with less-than-truckload shipments in second place, followed by rail shipments, parcel services (such as UPS and FedEx), and others. It does not include private fleets, commodities, and new vehicles. Freight rates plunge back to earth, but are still a lot higher than they were Truckload spot and contract rates, not including fuel and other charges, fell for the 14th month in a row in July, on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were down by 12.7% year-over-year, and by 15.8% from the peak in May 2022, which pushed them back to where they’d been in February 2021, according to the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index. The Cass Inferred Freight Rates Index, which does include fuel charges, dropped again in July and has plunged by 21% from the peak of the spike in June 2022. But it’s not like freight suddenly got cheap: The index is still up by 21% from February 2020, before the spike began, and has thereby unwound about 60% of the up-spike. The red line represents the three-month moving average that irons out the month-to-month ups and downs. Diesel, after the plunge, is rising again The Cass Inferred Freight Rates Index includes fuel charges, and the price of diesel at the pump has been on a trip! The price of diesel plunged by about $2 per gallon on average across the US from the peak of the spike in June 2022 to the bottom of the decline in June 2023. This plunge contributed to the decline in freight rates. But the plunge ended at the end of June, and since that low point, the average price of diesel has risen by nearly $0.60 a gallon, according to EIA data today, though it remains far below where it had been a year ago. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/213103565074576"}
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