网易做多做空风险提示

2018-07-03

$网易(NTES)$

$网易(NTES)$ 在种种利空的情况下，网易如此高调得大涨似乎不合时宜，且不说业绩差得一塌糊涂，股价本应下200（细心的同学可以自己用过去三年的财报推算一下股价），低点在180左右，就算有CDR和回购，基本面也没有发生本质变化；就算逆水寒能够逆袭，Q2财报里也没他什么事情。非常微妙的事情是大盘大跌，他也能扛得住。仔细看看2000亿市值对应的股价是240.在汇率跌了之后，股价可以使230，这可能是一个默契吧。而在这种情况下，JPM提高网易的级别，其目的实在让人质疑，到底是网易真的牛x，还是JPM需要跑路啊。

CDR延迟发行可能会让网易的股价保持在某一个点位之上，而这个价格是高估的价格。即便下个季度eps和营收达标都很难保持这个股价。网易股价后续走势具有很大的不确定性。做空做多都不是好选择。没有仓位的慎入。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

大熊先走
2018-07-03
大熊先走
我觉得从财务的稳健性来说，网易比微博好，网易的游戏和电商就算不挣钱也能产生现金流，而微博就是花钱呀，我去新浪大厦吃过饭之后就决定看空它了，美女太多了，很多年轻女孩都在健身，我支持健身和运动，但是我看到大家都那么放松生活那么惬意，感觉状态就不对，我看好阿里。
- Andy2015回复雨宝天华:
  厉害👍
- 雨宝天华:
  微博我只买PUT！太气人了，以前我有个加V的号，就是批评了几次天津市政府的官微和骂了几个唱赞歌的脑残，就给我永久注销了。
- 长线投资者:
  BAT都是血汗工厂，哈哈。有资源都要做多，特别是腾讯，游戏部门加班不要命；阿里每天晚上十一点不少人才下班。网易，尽管从现金流上看网易的市净率很低，但在游戏占六成的情况下，网易的业绩亏太多了。尽管网易愿意贰拾亿回购股票，但如果不是CDR 两千亿RMB的门槛保护，网易股价早就下去了。最近两个季度不看多网易。如果网易股价无端上去可能会遭来做空。另：我理解WB一方面自己增速放缓，同时还有抖音的威胁。至于团队，是要比BAT和TMMD要相对弱一些。
洗衣粉
2018-07-06
洗衣粉
我去，看了楼主老哥去年的帖子，判断的都很准啊。
- 长线投资者回复洗衣粉:
  哈哈谬赞
- 洗衣粉:
  果断来一波关注，楼主多发发帖子喔
长线投资者
2018-07-03
长线投资者
补充：如果没有CDR，即使有贰拾亿美金的回购，那个曲线应该比微博还惨。微博好歹换成人民币YoY增长率还在五成以上。
九格
2018-07-04
九格
实话，我同意
若依风
2018-07-13
若依风
应该是逆水寒的预期
Tony特别帅
2018-07-03
Tony特别帅
很中肯👍🏻

发表看法

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我只买PUT！太气人了，以前我有个加V的号，就是批评了几次天津市政府的官微和骂了几个唱赞歌的脑残，就给我永久注销了。","text":"微博 我只买PUT！太气人了，以前我有个加V的号，就是批评了几次天津市政府的官微和骂了几个唱赞歌的脑残，就给我永久注销了。","html":"微博 我只买PUT！太气人了，以前我有个加V的号，就是批评了几次天津市政府的官微和骂了几个唱赞歌的脑残，就给我永久注销了。"},{"id":829224,"commentId":"829224","gmtCreate":1530632263528,"gmtModify":1530632263528,"authorId":3450260538511300,"author":{"id":3450260538511300,"idStr":"3450260538511300","authorId":3450260538511300,"name":"长线投资者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":212747,"objectIdStr":"212747","type":1,"supId":829192,"supIdStr":"829192","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"BAT都是血汗工厂，哈哈。有资源都要做多，特别是腾讯，游戏部门加班不要命；阿里每天晚上十一点不少人才下班。网易，尽管从现金流上看网易的市净率很低，但在游戏占六成的情况下，网易的业绩亏太多了。尽管网易愿意贰拾亿回购股票，但如果不是CDR 两千亿RMB的门槛保护，网易股价早就下去了。最近两个季度不看多网易。如果网易股价无端上去可能会遭来做空。另：我理解WB一方面自己增速放缓，同时还有抖音的威胁。至于团队，是要比BAT和TMMD要相对弱一些。","text":"BAT都是血汗工厂，哈哈。有资源都要做多，特别是腾讯，游戏部门加班不要命；阿里每天晚上十一点不少人才下班。网易，尽管从现金流上看网易的市净率很低，但在游戏占六成的情况下，网易的业绩亏太多了。尽管网易愿意贰拾亿回购股票，但如果不是CDR 两千亿RMB的门槛保护，网易股价早就下去了。最近两个季度不看多网易。如果网易股价无端上去可能会遭来做空。另：我理解WB一方面自己增速放缓，同时还有抖音的威胁。至于团队，是要比BAT和TMMD要相对弱一些。","html":"BAT都是血汗工厂，哈哈。有资源都要做多，特别是腾讯，游戏部门加班不要命；阿里每天晚上十一点不少人才下班。网易，尽管从现金流上看网易的市净率很低，但在游戏占六成的情况下，网易的业绩亏太多了。尽管网易愿意贰拾亿回购股票，但如果不是CDR 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