艾虎虎
2023-08-08
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Li Auto: Why I Have Doubled My Position Ahead Of Q2
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Li Auto continues to present the deepest value for me in the industry group, based off of delivery accomplishments and valuation, and the company is set for a strong Q2 earnings release on August 8, 2023, in my opinion. This article compares Li Auto’s delivery accomplishments in July with those of XPeng and NIO and explains why I doubled my investment in the EV maker ahead of the Q2 earnings report!which would make Li Auto the first of the three EV companies discussed here that is proving to investors that it can make a profit on its electric vehicle operations. Considering this backdrop, and especially Li Auto's stellar delivery performance in the last three months, the EV company has a lot of surprise potential when it reports earnings for its second fis","content":"<html><body><figure><picture> <img height=\"1024px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure><p>Electric vehicle startup Li Auto (<span>NASDAQ:LI</span>) presented its delivery accomplishments for the month of July earlier this week and the company crushed the competition in terms of delivery growth again. Li Auto continues to present the deepest value for me<span> in the industry group, based off of delivery accomplishments and valuation, and the company is set for a strong Q2 earnings release on August 8, 2023, in my opinion. This article compares Li Auto’s delivery accomplishments in July with those of XPeng (</span>XPEV<span>) and NIO (</span>NIO<span>) and explains why I doubled my investment in the EV maker ahead of the Q2 earnings report!</span></p> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/5/saupload_098e931697c4e0036fc787a8e77144e1.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure> <h2><strong>Li Auto: outpacing its rivals in the competitive Chinese EV market</strong></h2> <p>Li Auto has consistently produced the strongest delivery growth rates in the last couple of months due to robust demand for its Li<span> L7 and Li L8 electric vehicle as well as strong execution with its EV production ramp. In the month of July, Li Auto </span>delivered<span> 34,134 electric vehicles to customers, showing a year over year growth rate of 227.5%. It was the second consecutive quarter of deliveries exceeding 30 thousand EVs.</span></p> <p>Li Auto’s July delivery card was significantly better (again) than those of NIO and XPeng. NIO delivered 20,462 electric vehicles in July 2023, showing an increase of 103.6% year over year. XPeng is still struggling and delivered only 11,008 electric vehicles last month, showing a 4.5% decline year over year.</p> <p>However, XPeng's situation is improving: July was the sixth straight month in which deliveries grew on a month over month basis in FY 2023. XPeng also recently announced a strategic partnership with German car brand Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) which caused me to upgrade the EV maker’s shares despite suboptimal delivery growth relative to its rivals Li Auto and NIO.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <tr> <td><p>Deliveries</p></td> <td><p>May-23</p></td> <td><p>May Y/Y Growth</p></td> <td><p>Jun-23</p></td> <td><p>June Y/Y Growth</p></td> <td><p>Jul-23</p></td> <td><p>July Y/Y Growth</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p><strong>LI</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>28,277</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>146.0%</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>32,575</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>150.1%</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>34,134</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>227.5%</strong></p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>NIO</p></td> <td><p>6,155</p></td> <td><p>-12.4%</p></td> <td><p>10,707</p></td> <td><p>-17.4%</p></td> <td><p>20,462</p></td> <td><p>103.6%</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>XPEV</p></td> <td><p>7,506</p></td> <td><p>-25.9%</p></td> <td><p>8,620</p></td> <td><p>-43.0%</p></td> <td><p>11,008</p></td> <td><p>-4.5%</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>(Source: Author)</p> <h2><strong>Strong surprise potential for Q2</strong></h2> <p>The combination of the fastest delivery growth in the EV industry paired with Li Auto’s comparatively low valuation on a revenue basis is what makes the EV maker a top value play for EV investors, in my opinion. Additionally, Li Auto, and I said this repeatedly, is, as opposed to other EV car brands on the brink of reporting positive EPS on a full-year basis in FY 2023… which would make Li Auto the first of the three EV companies discussed here that is proving to investors that it can make a profit on its electric vehicle operations.</p> <p>Considering this backdrop, and especially Li Auto's stellar delivery performance in the last three months, the EV company has a lot of surprise potential when it reports earnings for its second fiscal quarter on August 8, 2023. In fact, I doubled my position in Li Auto ahead of Tuesday's earnings release, a direct response of Li Auto's July delivery card.</p> <p>In the last 90 days there were three Q2'23 EPS upside revisions (and zero downside revisions). Revenue estimates went up three times compared to one revenue downside revision.</p> <p>More impressive is the trend for Li Auto's FY 2023 revenue and EPS estimates, however: revenue predictions for Li Auto's annual revenue volume were raised 25 times compared to 2 downside revisions. There are currently 11 EPS upside revisions compared to 0 downside revisions. Analysts now widely expect Li Auto to have a profitable FY 2023.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"223\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/5/53926820-16912227294509273.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Delivery outlook for Q3'23</h2> <p>The most important part of Li Auto's earnings report for Q2'23 will be the firm's outlook for the third-quarter. Li Auto delivered 86,533 electric vehicles in the second-quarter, showing a Q/Q increase of 65%. Given that Li Auto's delivery growth accelerated in both June and July 2023, I believe the electric vehicle company could guide for 100-110 thousand deliveries for the current quarter.</p> <h2>Li Auto's valuation signals deep value in the industry group</h2> <p>Li Auto's delivery performance has left the direct EV competition in the dust in the last couple of months and still Li Auto is trading at a relatively low P/S ratio in the industry group, which I find truly amazing.</p> <p>Li Auto is expected to generate $22.1B in revenues in FY 2024, implying near-50% top line growth. Li Auto is therefore currently trading at a P/S ratio of 2.03X. NIO and XPeng have FY 2024-based revenue multipliers of 1.94X and 2.10X. Considering that Li Auto is growing the fastest and has a much higher monthly delivery volume than either XPeng or NIO, I believe Li Auto remains the best value for EV investors.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"202\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/5/53926820-16912280414914074.png\" width=\"640\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2><strong>Risks with Li Auto</strong></h2> <p>Considering that Li Auto still has a low price-to-revenue ratio and considering how much faster the company is growing relative to rivals, Li Auto has the best risk profile in the industry, in my opinion. Going forward, margin trends could either increase or limit Li Auto's revaluation potential, however. Li Auto's vehicle margins declined 0.2% Q/Q in Q1'23 to 19.8% and a successive margin decline could impact how investors feel about the company's pricing power and revenue potential. An accelerating down-trend in Li Auto's vehicle margins would likely be a negative event for the company and its shares.</p> <h2><strong>Closing thoughts</strong></h2> <div></div> <p>I have doubled my position in Li Auto ahead of Q2'23, which is a direct result of the firm's truly impressive delivery card for the month of July: Li Auto delivered, for the second time in a row more than 30 thousand electric vehicles to its customers in a single month. Li Auto is headed for a strong Q2 earnings release next Tuesday, in my opinion and the firm is likely, given its recent delivery momentum, to submit strong Q3 delivery guidance as well. Given the acceleration of delivery growth in the last couple of months, I believe Li Auto could crush expectations for its Q2 on Tuesday!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto: Why I Have Doubled My Position Ahead Of Q2</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto: Why I Have Doubled My Position Ahead Of Q2\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-07 16:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4624839-li-auto-earnings-preview-doubled-my-position-ahead-of-q2><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesElectric vehicle startup Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) presented its delivery accomplishments for the month of July earlier this week and the company crushed the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4624839-li-auto-earnings-preview-doubled-my-position-ahead-of-q2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1504203878/image_1504203878.jpg","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BK4588":"碎股","LI":"理想汽车","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","NIO":"蔚来","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4624839-li-auto-earnings-preview-doubled-my-position-ahead-of-q2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2357628082","content_text":"Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesElectric vehicle startup Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) presented its delivery accomplishments for the month of July earlier this week and the company crushed the competition in terms of delivery growth again. Li Auto continues to present the deepest value for me in the industry group, based off of delivery accomplishments and valuation, and the company is set for a strong Q2 earnings release on August 8, 2023, in my opinion. This article compares Li Auto’s delivery accomplishments in July with those of XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) and explains why I doubled my investment in the EV maker ahead of the Q2 earnings report! Data by YCharts Li Auto: outpacing its rivals in the competitive Chinese EV market Li Auto has consistently produced the strongest delivery growth rates in the last couple of months due to robust demand for its Li L7 and Li L8 electric vehicle as well as strong execution with its EV production ramp. In the month of July, Li Auto delivered 34,134 electric vehicles to customers, showing a year over year growth rate of 227.5%. It was the second consecutive quarter of deliveries exceeding 30 thousand EVs. Li Auto’s July delivery card was significantly better (again) than those of NIO and XPeng. NIO delivered 20,462 electric vehicles in July 2023, showing an increase of 103.6% year over year. XPeng is still struggling and delivered only 11,008 electric vehicles last month, showing a 4.5% decline year over year. However, XPeng's situation is improving: July was the sixth straight month in which deliveries grew on a month over month basis in FY 2023. XPeng also recently announced a strategic partnership with German car brand Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) which caused me to upgrade the EV maker’s shares despite suboptimal delivery growth relative to its rivals Li Auto and NIO. Deliveries May-23 May Y/Y Growth Jun-23 June Y/Y Growth Jul-23 July Y/Y Growth LI 28,277 146.0% 32,575 150.1% 34,134 227.5% NIO 6,155 -12.4% 10,707 -17.4% 20,462 103.6% XPEV 7,506 -25.9% 8,620 -43.0% 11,008 -4.5% Click to enlarge (Source: Author) Strong surprise potential for Q2 The combination of the fastest delivery growth in the EV industry paired with Li Auto’s comparatively low valuation on a revenue basis is what makes the EV maker a top value play for EV investors, in my opinion. Additionally, Li Auto, and I said this repeatedly, is, as opposed to other EV car brands on the brink of reporting positive EPS on a full-year basis in FY 2023… which would make Li Auto the first of the three EV companies discussed here that is proving to investors that it can make a profit on its electric vehicle operations. Considering this backdrop, and especially Li Auto's stellar delivery performance in the last three months, the EV company has a lot of surprise potential when it reports earnings for its second fiscal quarter on August 8, 2023. In fact, I doubled my position in Li Auto ahead of Tuesday's earnings release, a direct response of Li Auto's July delivery card. In the last 90 days there were three Q2'23 EPS upside revisions (and zero downside revisions). Revenue estimates went up three times compared to one revenue downside revision. More impressive is the trend for Li Auto's FY 2023 revenue and EPS estimates, however: revenue predictions for Li Auto's annual revenue volume were raised 25 times compared to 2 downside revisions. There are currently 11 EPS upside revisions compared to 0 downside revisions. Analysts now widely expect Li Auto to have a profitable FY 2023. Source: Seeking AlphaDelivery outlook for Q3'23 The most important part of Li Auto's earnings report for Q2'23 will be the firm's outlook for the third-quarter. Li Auto delivered 86,533 electric vehicles in the second-quarter, showing a Q/Q increase of 65%. Given that Li Auto's delivery growth accelerated in both June and July 2023, I believe the electric vehicle company could guide for 100-110 thousand deliveries for the current quarter. Li Auto's valuation signals deep value in the industry group Li Auto's delivery performance has left the direct EV competition in the dust in the last couple of months and still Li Auto is trading at a relatively low P/S ratio in the industry group, which I find truly amazing. Li Auto is expected to generate $22.1B in revenues in FY 2024, implying near-50% top line growth. Li Auto is therefore currently trading at a P/S ratio of 2.03X. NIO and XPeng have FY 2024-based revenue multipliers of 1.94X and 2.10X. Considering that Li Auto is growing the fastest and has a much higher monthly delivery volume than either XPeng or NIO, I believe Li Auto remains the best value for EV investors. Source: Seeking AlphaRisks with Li Auto Considering that Li Auto still has a low price-to-revenue ratio and considering how much faster the company is growing relative to rivals, Li Auto has the best risk profile in the industry, in my opinion. Going forward, margin trends could either increase or limit Li Auto's revaluation potential, however. Li Auto's vehicle margins declined 0.2% Q/Q in Q1'23 to 19.8% and a successive margin decline could impact how investors feel about the company's pricing power and revenue potential. An accelerating down-trend in Li Auto's vehicle margins would likely be a negative event for the company and its shares. Closing thoughts I have doubled my position in Li Auto ahead of Q2'23, which is a direct result of the firm's truly impressive delivery card for the month of July: Li Auto delivered, for the second time in a row more than 30 thousand electric vehicles to its customers in a single month. Li Auto is headed for a strong Q2 earnings release next Tuesday, in my opinion and the firm is likely, given its recent delivery momentum, to submit strong Q3 delivery guidance as well. Given the acceleration of delivery growth in the last couple of months, I believe Li Auto could crush expectations for its Q2 on Tuesday!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/206461908901976"}
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