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2021-05-14

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Ocugen Has a Longer Road To Paying off Than People Think

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To some degree, I still am.\nOCGN is pushed as a vaccine play, thanks to its partnership with India’sBharat Biotech, but some investors miss the fact that the partnership is skewed sharply in Bharat’s favor.\nOcguen only has rights to distribution in the U.S. It must do all the heavy lifting (financially and operationally) to get Bharat’s Covaxin to market. In return, the company receives just45% of any profits.\nSo the idea that OCGN stock is the nextModerna(NASDAQ:MRNA) is quite a stretch. The geographical limitations on the Covaxin license, the past failures in the legacy ocular pipeline, and the profit-sharing agreement leave OCGN at a seeming disadvantage to even the likes ofInovio(NASDAQ:INO) orSorrento Therapeutics(NASDAQ:SRNE).\nThe push/pull in OCGN stock reflects these two facts. When Bharat released positive data last month, OCGN soared. It’s since dropped 41% in a matter of days.\nAfter this most recent fade, however, OCGN does look at least intriguing, even to this skeptic.\nThere’s still a lot of work to do, certainly. But Ocugen has the cash and the product. If it can execute, there’s potential upside, even given the constraints of the Bharat deal.\nGood News Gets Punished?\nI can certainly see how the trading in OCGN over the past few months, and few weeks, would be confusing.\nAfter all, it seems like Ocugen has delivered mostly good news over that stretch. Data from Bharat on Covaxin gets more detailed and seemingly more positive.\nThe second interim results released in April showed100% protection against hospitalization. OCGN soared on that news. Early this month, Bharat showedeffectiveness against the key variantsthat have alarmed scientists of late.\nOCGN actually trades below where it did in early February, though, after the stock tripled following an equity offeringpriced above the market. It will open today at around $8.60.\nNow, comparing OCGN to past peaks has an obvious problem: the stock has seen bubbly trading both in February and the second half of April. Some level of correction was needed in both instances.\nThat said, there is a case that the most recent selling has gone a little too far (and indeed shares have found a temporary bottom at the moment). With OCGN approaching $9, the math here can work.\nThe Math for OCGN Stock\nOn March 31, Ocugen had $45 million in cash, and 188.2 million shares outstanding. A $100 million equity offeringpriced at $10followed in April.\nOcugen should close Q2 with about $135 million in cash, assuming its burn rate accelerates as it builds out the infrastructure for Covaxin. That’s probably, though not definitely, enough to get the vaccine to market. Substantial dilution thus seems unlikely.\nOcugen has a fully diluted market capitalization of nearly $1.8 billion. (That figure includes about 10 million options and warrants outstanding at March 31.)\nSo there’s a simplistic question to ask about OCGN stock: can the company generate $2 billion in profit off Covaxin?\nLooking to Moderna\nThat’s likely the minimum required to see any upside here. It’s difficult to assign any material value to the company’s owned pipeline, given the company had a market capitalization below $50 million before the Bharat deal was signed.\nAfter all, $2 billion is a reasonably high bar. Again, Ocugen only gets 45% of the profits, so Covaxin must generate $4.5 billion or so in earnings.\nWe can see from Moderna earnings what the profit profile might look like. Treating previously produced inventory at cost, Moderna’sgross margins were 78%in the first quarter.\nJust to get to $4.5 billion in gross profit, then, Covaxin needs to generate nearly $6 billion in revenue.\nAt Moderna’s $19 per dose price, we’re looking at about 300 million doses even before operating expenses. Add in those expenses (it’s tough to estimate, but a few hundred million seems in the ballpark) and Covaxin perhaps needs to move something in the range of 350 million doses.\nCan Covaxin hit that bogey? It does seem tough.\nModerna is guiding for 200 million to 250 million doses just in the second quarter, but much of that supply is going to international markets.\nFor OCGN stock to rise from here, Covaxin probably needs to be one of the most commonly used vaccines domestically, while competing not only with Moderna, butPfizer(NYSE:PFE),Johnson &amp; Johnson(NYSE:JNJ) and presumably others.\nThat’s the bet when it comes to OCGN. Honestly, it’s not a bet I’m terribly interested in taking. But with OCGN stock pulling back, reasonable investors probably can disagree.\nOn the date of publication, Vince Martin did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen Has a Longer Road To Paying off Than People Think</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen Has a Longer Road To Paying off Than People Think\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-13 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/05/confusing-trading-leaves-ocgn-stock-interesting/>InvestorPlace</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nGood news from Ocugen has been met with a wave of selling in OCGN stock.\n\nI’ve long been skeptical towardOcugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock. To some degree, I still am.\nOCGN is pushed as a vaccine play, thanks...\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/confusing-trading-leaves-ocgn-stock-interesting/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/confusing-trading-leaves-ocgn-stock-interesting/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118899332","content_text":"Good news from Ocugen has been met with a wave of selling in OCGN stock.\n\nI’ve long been skeptical towardOcugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock. To some degree, I still am.\nOCGN is pushed as a vaccine play, thanks to its partnership with India’sBharat Biotech, but some investors miss the fact that the partnership is skewed sharply in Bharat’s favor.\nOcguen only has rights to distribution in the U.S. It must do all the heavy lifting (financially and operationally) to get Bharat’s Covaxin to market. In return, the company receives just45% of any profits.\nSo the idea that OCGN stock is the nextModerna(NASDAQ:MRNA) is quite a stretch. The geographical limitations on the Covaxin license, the past failures in the legacy ocular pipeline, and the profit-sharing agreement leave OCGN at a seeming disadvantage to even the likes ofInovio(NASDAQ:INO) orSorrento Therapeutics(NASDAQ:SRNE).\nThe push/pull in OCGN stock reflects these two facts. When Bharat released positive data last month, OCGN soared. It’s since dropped 41% in a matter of days.\nAfter this most recent fade, however, OCGN does look at least intriguing, even to this skeptic.\nThere’s still a lot of work to do, certainly. But Ocugen has the cash and the product. If it can execute, there’s potential upside, even given the constraints of the Bharat deal.\nGood News Gets Punished?\nI can certainly see how the trading in OCGN over the past few months, and few weeks, would be confusing.\nAfter all, it seems like Ocugen has delivered mostly good news over that stretch. Data from Bharat on Covaxin gets more detailed and seemingly more positive.\nThe second interim results released in April showed100% protection against hospitalization. OCGN soared on that news. Early this month, Bharat showedeffectiveness against the key variantsthat have alarmed scientists of late.\nOCGN actually trades below where it did in early February, though, after the stock tripled following an equity offeringpriced above the market. It will open today at around $8.60.\nNow, comparing OCGN to past peaks has an obvious problem: the stock has seen bubbly trading both in February and the second half of April. Some level of correction was needed in both instances.\nThat said, there is a case that the most recent selling has gone a little too far (and indeed shares have found a temporary bottom at the moment). With OCGN approaching $9, the math here can work.\nThe Math for OCGN Stock\nOn March 31, Ocugen had $45 million in cash, and 188.2 million shares outstanding. A $100 million equity offeringpriced at $10followed in April.\nOcugen should close Q2 with about $135 million in cash, assuming its burn rate accelerates as it builds out the infrastructure for Covaxin. That’s probably, though not definitely, enough to get the vaccine to market. Substantial dilution thus seems unlikely.\nOcugen has a fully diluted market capitalization of nearly $1.8 billion. (That figure includes about 10 million options and warrants outstanding at March 31.)\nSo there’s a simplistic question to ask about OCGN stock: can the company generate $2 billion in profit off Covaxin?\nLooking to Moderna\nThat’s likely the minimum required to see any upside here. It’s difficult to assign any material value to the company’s owned pipeline, given the company had a market capitalization below $50 million before the Bharat deal was signed.\nAfter all, $2 billion is a reasonably high bar. Again, Ocugen only gets 45% of the profits, so Covaxin must generate $4.5 billion or so in earnings.\nWe can see from Moderna earnings what the profit profile might look like. Treating previously produced inventory at cost, Moderna’sgross margins were 78%in the first quarter.\nJust to get to $4.5 billion in gross profit, then, Covaxin needs to generate nearly $6 billion in revenue.\nAt Moderna’s $19 per dose price, we’re looking at about 300 million doses even before operating expenses. Add in those expenses (it’s tough to estimate, but a few hundred million seems in the ballpark) and Covaxin perhaps needs to move something in the range of 350 million doses.\nCan Covaxin hit that bogey? It does seem tough.\nModerna is guiding for 200 million to 250 million doses just in the second quarter, but much of that supply is going to international markets.\nFor OCGN stock to rise from here, Covaxin probably needs to be one of the most commonly used vaccines domestically, while competing not only with Moderna, butPfizer(NYSE:PFE),Johnson & Johnson(NYSE:JNJ) and presumably others.\nThat’s the bet when it comes to OCGN. Honestly, it’s not a bet I’m terribly interested in taking. But with OCGN stock pulling back, reasonable investors probably can disagree.\nOn the date of publication, Vince Martin did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/198106490"}