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2021-05-15
Be a real market winner
Palantir Stock Looks Like A Fundamental Winner To Us
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After a marked move up, the stock ha","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir reported Q1 earnings Tuesday before the open. After a marked move up, the stock has since followed the market down.</li>\n <li>Often the subject of battle-by-meme, ergo prone to be passed over by grownups, this company has quietly improved its fundamentals - it now looks like a rock-solid enterprise software business.</li>\n <li>We believe the stock offers solid long-term multibagger potential from here, short-term risk notwithstanding.</li>\n <li>We rate the stock at Buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Now The Real Deal</b></p>\n<p>Ourvarious prior noteson Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)can be summed up in the manner of a school report: holds great promise, needs to get down to work on its fundamentals in order to achieve its long-term potential. Prior to the stock's direct listing we noted that the company's recent revenue growth had been fuelled mainly by recognizing existing deferred revenue - in other words it was driving revenue from older sales wins, and not adding to the wins as quickly as it should be. The result was cash-less revenue and earnings, since the cash had already been paid in advance by customers and, again, given the slow rate of new name wins, there wasn't enough money falling into the top of the hopper to keep the balance sheet looking good.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Earnings</b></p>\n<p>That has all changed, for the better. The company released its FY12/2021 Q1 earnings this week. The fundamentals now look very strong. Let's start by diving into the numbers. (As the company is a new issue, detailed quarterly numbers for the periods prior to the listing are a little thin on the ground. With stocks new to market like this, we build up those historic numbers with each10-Q or 10-Kthat is released, because each adds a little bit of history to the record for the purposes of comparison. So if our numbers on PLTR look a little sparse vs. our usual ten-plus-quarter sequential data, bear with us - that will improve over time).</p>\n<p>Here's revenue down to unlevered pre-tax FCF.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bad82313a2b407ab5c2ba6f680bcb55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</i></p>\n<p>And now a balance sheet summary down through deferred revenue and RPO.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be93672d020e09a9484de7d151d8bcb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</i></p>\n<p><b>PLTR Q1 Earnings Takeaways For Long-Term Investors</b></p>\n<p>Here's the key points as we see them.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Revenue growth in the quarter was very strong at +49% vs. Q1 2020. In enterprise software generally, we should see enhanced growth rates in 2021 vs. 2020, because whilst it was easy to sell zero-touch Zoom (ZM) licenses remotely, it is not at all easy to sell high-touch enterprise software and services without continuous attendance at client sites, endless meetings, etc. So 2020 is probably an easy year for PLTR to lap in 2021; that said, management is guiding to just a 30% long-term growth rate, so they have some way to fall before they arrive at the guided glide path. So - growth, good.</li>\n <li>Gross margins were good at 78% and indeed TTM gross margins now stand at 70%. It's important to see this move up - with complex software like Palantir's, if you aren't very careful the whole thing can devolve into bespoke development and implementation for large customers, and that is a rabbit hole best avoided if you like profits. 70% is something of a threshold in our mind - we want to see gross margin keep moving up from here.</li>\n <li>Quarterly EBITDA and unlevered pre-tax FCF were strong, at margins of 24% and 35% respectively. Cash inflow was huge ($118m on $341m of revenue) which is great to see because this is evidence the company is reversing that pre-listing cashless revenue growth we mention above. The reason cashflow exceeded EBITDA in the quarter was miserly capex (just $700k!) and, in particular, a big inflow of cash from working capital. That's not possible long term but again it's great to see every now and then, it tells us the company is more cash focused.</li>\n <li>TTM EBITDA margins of 20% and TTM unlevered pretax FCF margins of 8% show the historic delta between accounting profitability and cashflow. We hope the cash focus continues - if it does, the gap between these margins will start to close. (Broadly, the closer that UFCF margins are to EBITDA margins, the better the quality of EBITDA).</li>\n <li>$2.1bn of net cash in the bank will see the company through a few tough quarters here and there if needed. We don't think the company needs to raise new money at this stage unless it plans major acquisitions. Which is just as well as we suspect any equity issuance right now would be painful for the stock.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This was a great set of numbers in our view. But, in the current market environment, there are two kinds of earnings reports for tech stocks; bad earnings report, stock sells off, and, good earnings report, stock sells off. So, PLTR moved up for a few hours and then headed back down again with the rest of the market.</p>\n<p><b>Is Palantir Stock Overvalued?</b></p>\n<p>If you zoom out and take a longer term view, our own opinion is that Palantir Technologies current valuation is attractive. There is one big rider to that and it is simple, and applies to most all software stocks - what do you believe will be the acceptable EV/Revenue ratios paid by the market for growth stocks. Nobody knows the answer, of course. In the 20+ years we have invested in software companies, valuation multiples have moved up and down but the long term trend over two decades has been, up. And we think that can continue. In our own stock forecast model we assume a cooling of multiples over the coming years, but only a cooling, not a collapse. The biggest risk to PLTR stockholders right now is not, in our view, mis-steps by the company or big advances by their competitors or anything else endogenous to the story. The biggest risk is macro, specifically, those multiples.</p>\n<p>We proffer no view in this note about the wisdom of short-term trading PLTR long or short. You can make plenty of money doing this, but that's not our focus right now. Our focus in this note is long term, and long term, we think PLTR is attractively priced. Here's the current valuation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f7d1d34aa8862ded9fef472f60cc30\" tg-width=\"249\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</i></p>\n<p>The stock chart will tell you that if you want to time your entry some, continued market weakness may offer a better price. As we say in most each and every one of our notes, there are far better technical analysts than us in this world. But our set of Crayolas tells us that an entry of somewhere between $16-17 is quite possible if the market keeps dumping tech names (we use a simple Fibonacci retracement below ie. at what levels is the stock likely to find support on the way back down from its high to its low). Were we to be opening a new position (we aren't, we're already long the name) we probably wouldn't wait for that before buying a partial position, but that's just us. You know your own mind and risk appetite and can adjust accordingly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d78b34d00b8ddf02bdb815d125a2c9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</i></p>\n<p>The next table tells you why we think around the current level is a sound entry point for long-term investors, subject again to your view on where multiples might end up. Our view on the progression of the company and its stock goes something like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91441af7d3424406392164669fa260f3\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis, Cestrian Estimates</i></p>\n<p>We assume revenue growth which is above the guide but below the current trending rate; assume terminal EBITDA margins at an industry-norm 20%, we're cautious on how much EBITDA turns into net free cash generation ergo the rate at which cash builds up on the balance sheet, and we dial down valuation multiples over time. The above quick model suggests the potential to double your money in two to three years, which in normal times would look wonderful - after 2020's hot tech streak, not so much! But we are old, this isn't our first rodeo, and we don't expect 2020's easy money to be a repeatable trick.</p>\n<p><b>Is Palantir Stock a Buy or Sell?</b></p>\n<p>Our long-term investment thesis with PLTR is that it can become the dominant player in enterprise IT in government. That is a crown well worth having and is, we believe, worth a whole lot more than the current share price. On the basis of our outlook for the business, the stock's current weakness and potential support levels, and where we think valuation multiples are headed - we rate Palantir Technologies a long term Buy.</p>\n<p><i>Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 13 May 2021.</i></p>\n<p><i>DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.</i></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Looks Like A Fundamental Winner To Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Looks Like A Fundamental Winner To Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 15:23 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428424-palantir-stock-looks-like-a-winner><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir reported Q1 earnings Tuesday before the open. After a marked move up, the stock has since followed the market down.\nOften the subject of battle-by-meme, ergo prone to be passed over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428424-palantir-stock-looks-like-a-winner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428424-palantir-stock-looks-like-a-winner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1124122682","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir reported Q1 earnings Tuesday before the open. After a marked move up, the stock has since followed the market down.\nOften the subject of battle-by-meme, ergo prone to be passed over by grownups, this company has quietly improved its fundamentals - it now looks like a rock-solid enterprise software business.\nWe believe the stock offers solid long-term multibagger potential from here, short-term risk notwithstanding.\nWe rate the stock at Buy.\n\nNow The Real Deal\nOurvarious prior noteson Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)can be summed up in the manner of a school report: holds great promise, needs to get down to work on its fundamentals in order to achieve its long-term potential. Prior to the stock's direct listing we noted that the company's recent revenue growth had been fuelled mainly by recognizing existing deferred revenue - in other words it was driving revenue from older sales wins, and not adding to the wins as quickly as it should be. The result was cash-less revenue and earnings, since the cash had already been paid in advance by customers and, again, given the slow rate of new name wins, there wasn't enough money falling into the top of the hopper to keep the balance sheet looking good.\nPalantir Earnings\nThat has all changed, for the better. The company released its FY12/2021 Q1 earnings this week. The fundamentals now look very strong. Let's start by diving into the numbers. (As the company is a new issue, detailed quarterly numbers for the periods prior to the listing are a little thin on the ground. With stocks new to market like this, we build up those historic numbers with each10-Q or 10-Kthat is released, because each adds a little bit of history to the record for the purposes of comparison. So if our numbers on PLTR look a little sparse vs. our usual ten-plus-quarter sequential data, bear with us - that will improve over time).\nHere's revenue down to unlevered pre-tax FCF.\n\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nAnd now a balance sheet summary down through deferred revenue and RPO.\n\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nPLTR Q1 Earnings Takeaways For Long-Term Investors\nHere's the key points as we see them.\n\nRevenue growth in the quarter was very strong at +49% vs. Q1 2020. In enterprise software generally, we should see enhanced growth rates in 2021 vs. 2020, because whilst it was easy to sell zero-touch Zoom (ZM) licenses remotely, it is not at all easy to sell high-touch enterprise software and services without continuous attendance at client sites, endless meetings, etc. So 2020 is probably an easy year for PLTR to lap in 2021; that said, management is guiding to just a 30% long-term growth rate, so they have some way to fall before they arrive at the guided glide path. So - growth, good.\nGross margins were good at 78% and indeed TTM gross margins now stand at 70%. It's important to see this move up - with complex software like Palantir's, if you aren't very careful the whole thing can devolve into bespoke development and implementation for large customers, and that is a rabbit hole best avoided if you like profits. 70% is something of a threshold in our mind - we want to see gross margin keep moving up from here.\nQuarterly EBITDA and unlevered pre-tax FCF were strong, at margins of 24% and 35% respectively. Cash inflow was huge ($118m on $341m of revenue) which is great to see because this is evidence the company is reversing that pre-listing cashless revenue growth we mention above. The reason cashflow exceeded EBITDA in the quarter was miserly capex (just $700k!) and, in particular, a big inflow of cash from working capital. That's not possible long term but again it's great to see every now and then, it tells us the company is more cash focused.\nTTM EBITDA margins of 20% and TTM unlevered pretax FCF margins of 8% show the historic delta between accounting profitability and cashflow. We hope the cash focus continues - if it does, the gap between these margins will start to close. (Broadly, the closer that UFCF margins are to EBITDA margins, the better the quality of EBITDA).\n$2.1bn of net cash in the bank will see the company through a few tough quarters here and there if needed. We don't think the company needs to raise new money at this stage unless it plans major acquisitions. Which is just as well as we suspect any equity issuance right now would be painful for the stock.\n\nThis was a great set of numbers in our view. But, in the current market environment, there are two kinds of earnings reports for tech stocks; bad earnings report, stock sells off, and, good earnings report, stock sells off. So, PLTR moved up for a few hours and then headed back down again with the rest of the market.\nIs Palantir Stock Overvalued?\nIf you zoom out and take a longer term view, our own opinion is that Palantir Technologies current valuation is attractive. There is one big rider to that and it is simple, and applies to most all software stocks - what do you believe will be the acceptable EV/Revenue ratios paid by the market for growth stocks. Nobody knows the answer, of course. In the 20+ years we have invested in software companies, valuation multiples have moved up and down but the long term trend over two decades has been, up. And we think that can continue. In our own stock forecast model we assume a cooling of multiples over the coming years, but only a cooling, not a collapse. The biggest risk to PLTR stockholders right now is not, in our view, mis-steps by the company or big advances by their competitors or anything else endogenous to the story. The biggest risk is macro, specifically, those multiples.\nWe proffer no view in this note about the wisdom of short-term trading PLTR long or short. You can make plenty of money doing this, but that's not our focus right now. Our focus in this note is long term, and long term, we think PLTR is attractively priced. Here's the current valuation.\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe stock chart will tell you that if you want to time your entry some, continued market weakness may offer a better price. As we say in most each and every one of our notes, there are far better technical analysts than us in this world. But our set of Crayolas tells us that an entry of somewhere between $16-17 is quite possible if the market keeps dumping tech names (we use a simple Fibonacci retracement below ie. at what levels is the stock likely to find support on the way back down from its high to its low). Were we to be opening a new position (we aren't, we're already long the name) we probably wouldn't wait for that before buying a partial position, but that's just us. You know your own mind and risk appetite and can adjust accordingly.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nThe next table tells you why we think around the current level is a sound entry point for long-term investors, subject again to your view on where multiples might end up. Our view on the progression of the company and its stock goes something like this:\n\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis, Cestrian Estimates\nWe assume revenue growth which is above the guide but below the current trending rate; assume terminal EBITDA margins at an industry-norm 20%, we're cautious on how much EBITDA turns into net free cash generation ergo the rate at which cash builds up on the balance sheet, and we dial down valuation multiples over time. The above quick model suggests the potential to double your money in two to three years, which in normal times would look wonderful - after 2020's hot tech streak, not so much! But we are old, this isn't our first rodeo, and we don't expect 2020's easy money to be a repeatable trick.\nIs Palantir Stock a Buy or Sell?\nOur long-term investment thesis with PLTR is that it can become the dominant player in enterprise IT in government. That is a crown well worth having and is, we believe, worth a whole lot more than the current share price. On the basis of our outlook for the business, the stock's current weakness and potential support levels, and where we think valuation multiples are headed - we rate Palantir Technologies a long term Buy.\nCestrian Capital Research, Inc - 13 May 2021.\nDISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/196512049"}
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