mcwood
2021-05-18
[得意]
fuboTV: The Party Is Just Getting Started
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":194354330,"tweetId":"194354330","gmtCreate":1621345155920,"gmtModify":1634192285962,"author":{"id":3569805243820041,"authorId":3569805243820041,"authorIdStr":"3569805243820041","name":"mcwood","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/899c12565f32e74966bd8f5ceac09f7c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":26,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[得意] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[得意] </span></p></body></html>","text":"[得意]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194354330","repostId":1109408177,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109408177","pubTimestamp":1621250510,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109408177?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"fuboTV: The Party Is Just Getting Started","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109408177","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFUBO raises guidance and why shares are a strong buy.\nTakeaways from the record-setting fir","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>FUBO raises guidance and why shares are a strong buy.</li>\n <li>Takeaways from the record-setting first quarter.</li>\n <li>The big picture and the road ahead.</li>\n <li>Fundamental and technical analysis shows FUBO is undervalued and likely on the verge of a big breakout.</li>\n <li>The risk/reward has never been better!</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed20fdf283bbad44a7cd51b8f34c3e7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"907\"><span>Photo by simpson33/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>It was the \"shot heard round the world\" and that shot was the earnings report delivered by fuboTV CEO David Gandler to the bears after leading the sports-first streaming TV platform to record-breaking results during the first quarter.</p>\n<p>Shares of FUBO (FUBO) surged more than 25% in after-hours action and on heavy volume too with nearly 15 million shares trading, or roughly twice the volume FUBO has seen over its last 10 trading days. Shorts rushed to cover after the company easily beat Wall Street's expectations on the top line, and boosted full-year 2021 revenue guidance and subscribers as well.</p>\n<p>Below is a look at FUBO's earnings performance over the past three quarters.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4150fbcb08b314d02cb3a9809b712dcd\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p>On the top line, the company reported $119.7 million in revenues, easily beating Wall Street's consensus of $103.8 million. This put revenue growth at an impressive 135% on a year-over-year basis.</p>\n<p>On the bottom line, the company reported earnings per share (\"EPS\") of -$0.55, missing Wall Street's expectations of -$0.46. This was the only blemish in the report, with every other metric exceeding expectations. Investors should note that part of the miss on the bottom line was due to expenses the company incurred for the launch of its wagering business, as well as the amortization of the debt discount related to senior convertible notes. The company also accelerated its investments in its team, technology, and infrastructure during the quarter.</p>\n<p>The good news is that FUBO is still in its early stages of growth and, because of that, is valued on a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) and not price-to-earnings (P/E). This means that top-line growth is all that matters to Wall Street right now as the bottom-line will sort itself out in the years ahead, similar to how Netflix (NFLX), ROKU (ROKU), and Amazon (AMZN) were for the longest time.</p>\n<p>As the company continues to grow and ramps up its offerings, profitability will follow. Like most media companies, the metric Wall Street cares most about is subscribers and FUBO certainly delivered as the company added more than 42,000 in the first quarter — up 105% on a year-over-year basis — and easily surpassed analyst expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Q1 Takeaways</b></p>\n<p><b>Subscribers</b>: As noted above, the company added more than 42,000 paid subscribers in the quarter. This may not seem like much; however, Q1 has always been soft due to seasonality issues and has been the company's slowest part of the year.</p>\n<p>The company, which tends to be conservative, guided for a net loss of around 20K-30K subscribers in Q1. However, instead, the company delivered 105% growth on a year-over-basis and 8% on a quarterly basis. It was the first time in its history that FUBO reported sequential revenue and subscriber growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe40d68bb0c1ee2a38eb5ec887e634e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"148\"><span>Source: FUBO Shareholder Letter</span></p>\n<p>Gaining subscribers is arguably the most important metric that Wall Street looks for when it comes to each of the major streaming players (Netflix, Disney(NYSE:DIS), ROKU). Fortunately for FUBO shareholders, the company delivered as it raised its paid subscriber forecast by 10% from 765,000 to 840,000 for 2021.</p>\n<p>This new figure implies more than 50% growth year-over-year and based on current demand and trajectory — as well as a number of major sporting events on the horizon (Winter and Summer Olympics, World Cup qualifying tournaments, etc.) — we wouldn't be surprised to see management raise its paid subscriber forecast again this year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc46971adbb13831970ee525c72fee7\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"145\"><span>* Midpoint (830K-850K)</span></p>\n<p><b>ARPU</b>: Gaining subscribers does nothing for the company if it can't successfully monetize its user base. ARPU, or \"average revenue per user,\" is a key metric that measures how well FUBO is monetizing its active accounts. In Q1, ARPU jumped 28% year-over-year to $69.09.</p>\n<p>Another positive is that advertising ARPU increased 57% to $7.11 on a year-over-year basis.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d72a45ce6ebdecbf83b59e9653ec14c\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>Source: FUBO Presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>Raised Guidance</b>: For Q2, the company now expects revenue to come in around $121 million, which is well above analyst estimates of $98.3 million. For the full year, the company now expects revenue of around $520-$530 million, compared to $460-$470 million it expected last quarter. Wall Street was expecting revenues of $472 million.</p>\n<p>The new figures would represent total revenue growth of 95% on a year-over-year basis for the company. The revenue acceleration is extremely impressive considering the company grew 83% last year during the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic. And while the economy opens up and with COVID starting to take a back seat, FUBO still continues to ride the streaming tailwinds as consumers increasingly ditch cable and satellite for streaming providers such as FUBO.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81797c59beb87aae8a1bbd47e230feb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>Source: FUBO Presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>The Road Ahead</b></p>\n<p>Heading into earnings, FUBO was down nearly 70% from its December high ($62.00), and roughly 60% since February, despite Q4 results beating analyst expectations on revenue and subscriber growth.</p>\n<p>Before earnings came out, we predicted that FUBO was likely going to see a big post-earnings run similar to what ROKU and Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)experienced. Yes, we realized most tech stocks had been tanking after earnings; however, the big difference between FUBO and most other tech stocks is that many had risen into earnings and the beat was already priced in.</p>\n<p>FUBO was the complete opposite as it had fallen off a cliff heading into ER.As we said, \"<i>every possible negative thing has been priced in at this point and any good news + high short interest could start a squeeze. Looking forward to the update on subscribers and the sportsbook launch.</i>\"</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f4866ea5afc2e82127ce4a00a0eb3c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"620\"><span>Source: Twitter</span></p>\n<p>Now the million-dollar question is, what are shares going to do next?</p>\n<p>Pulling up the chart, we can see that FUBO, like most tech stocks, has been in a downtrend trend since February. The good news is that shares have been rising on higher volume and selling off on lower volume lately, signaling that buyers have been accumulating shares.</p>\n<p>After earnings were announced, shares climbed to a high of $22.67 (+28%) during after-hours action before closing the day at $21.64. It looked as though the bulls had finally flipped the momentum as shares looked primed for a big run. However, the following day, the bears managed to limit the damage as shares closed at $19.38 (+9.7%), and right at the line of the downward trend. On Thursday, shares then closed down at $18.27 and looked as though they would resume the downward trend and test the $15-$16 levels again.</p>\n<p>However, on Friday, shares closed the day at $20.53 (+12%), and back above the downward trendline, as you can see in the image below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75361ce481ccf2480cf74bfa10ff284c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\"></p>\n<p>Could this be a breakout? Absolutely.</p>\n<p>Could this be a false breakout? Absolutely.</p>\n<p>The stock market has been very Jekyll and Hyde lately so it's hard to say where things are headed for the short term. But based on the company's monster earnings beat — crushing analyst expectations and raising guidance — we believe the tide has shifted more towards the bulls and that a sustainable breakout is likely on the way. One factor is just looking at the volume. On the false breakout in March, Shares dropped on heavier volume the following days; however, that hasn't been the case this time around.</p>\n<p>And according to the latest short interest figures, roughly 37% of the float is short, which could make for some massive fireworks this week if shares can continue to climb higher. Short interest jumped from 18% on April 15, to 37% on April 30.</p>\n<p>However, at the end of the day, we are not in FUBO to make a quick buck. The company is part of our long-term portfolio and we believe, like most analysts covering the company, that shares have the potential to be a multibagger over the next 1-2 years based on current projections.</p>\n<p>Based on the latest earnings results and company outlook, we believe shares — based on Friday's closing price of $20.53 — have minimal downside (15%-20%), and major upside (100-200%) at current levels. The downside in our forecast is not related to the company's fundamentals, but due to heavy short selling as well as current market conditions in which money has rotated out of a lot of growth names and into value and reopening plays (airlines, cruises, hotels, etc.).</p>\n<p>But as the market warms back up to growth plays again which seems to be happening the last few days, FUBO should return as the market darling once again. Based on Friday's closing price ($20.53), FUBO has a market cap of $2.89 billion. When looking at a P/S ratio, FUBO is trading at just 5.5X sales, and this is not including any revenue from its sports wagering business which is expected to launch at the start of Q4.</p>\n<p>Based on recently raised guidance for 2021, we expect 2022 revenue estimates to increase as well. We are currently forecasting that FUBO can deliver $850 million revenue in 2022. The average analyst estimate is around $825 million, with the highest analyst figure at $900 million. Based on its current market cap, FUBO would be trading at less than 3.5X sales based on our $850 million estimate. That is extremely cheap for a company that is expected to deliver revenue growth of 101% this year and is on track to grow revenues by more than 60% in 2022.</p>\n<p>Most recently, high-growth companies in tech have been given P/S multiples of 20X, 30X, 40X, and even 50X sales — looking at you DraftKings (DKNG), The Trade Desk (TTD), and Snowflake (SNOW) just to name a few. Even Netflix, which reported a very underwhelming quarter in terms of subscribe growth, is still trading at 8X sales right now.</p>\n<p>If FUBO was trading at 8X sales, which is still very low for a company delivering massive revenue growth like it continues to do, shares would be worth $30.00 per share based on 2021 revenue estimates and $48.00 based on 2022 estimates. Even at 10X sales, shares would be worth $38.00 based on 2021 revenue estimates and $60.00 based on 2022 estimates.</p>\n<p>DraftKings, which is a comparable company to FUBO, currently trades at 15X sales and was trading at more than 25X sales when it set a 52-week high back in late March. Even at 15X sales, that would put FUBO at $56.00 based on 2021 revenue estimates and $90.00 based on 2022 revenue estimates. The companies have slightly different business models, but it goes to show just how undervalued and inexpensive FUBO is at the moment.</p>\n<p>That's why it's no surprise that the average analyst price target currently sits at $40.88, or roughly 100% upside from current prices. We expect the price target to move up as well throughout the year as the company executes on its plan and overdelivers like it continues to do.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>From its IPO ($10 per share) in early October, the stock soared more than 600% ($62) in just a two-month period. Now the market darling is down nearly 70% from its December highs, and roughly 60% since February, despite Q4 results beating analyst expectations on revenue and subscriber growth.</p>\n<p>Yes, it has been a wild ride for FUBO shareholders to say the least. The volatility has turned the company into one of the most polarizing battleground stocks in the market.</p>\n<p>On the one hand, you have analysts Rich Greenfield (LightShed Partners) and Kerrisdale Capital who believe FUBO is worth less than $10 per share. On the other hand, you have analysts like Michael Pachter (Wedbush) and Laura Martin (Needham) who believe FUBO has massive upside with their $53 and $60 price targets.</p>\n<p>Frankly, it's all about the multiples that analysts use. Some give FUBO a premium valuation while others still want FUBO to prove themselves. As the saying goes, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and that's what we have with the average analyst price target currently sitting around $40.</p>\n<p>FUBO is unquestionably a battleground stock, but the bears seem to be losing steam as the company continues to execute flawlessly and overdeliver on its promises. FUBO continues to set records and improve its efficiencies in nearly every category. The monster results and raised guidance only confirm the bull thesis for FUBO and cracks another hole in the bear case.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32f13a248ab9393cc77c7d18c0fede4\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"672\"></p>\n<p>Thanks to the markets doom-and-gloom stance on FUBO over the last three months and due to some unfortunate events — forced selling by Archegos Capital which was a big shareholder in FUBO at the time — the tech selloff, etc., the sports-first streaming TV platform was nearly priced like it was going out of business heading into earnings. And not only did Q1 earnings exceed expectations, but it confirmed the bull case as the company continues to show that it shouldn't be slept on in the streaming industry. Impressively, FUBO has now beaten and raised its subscriber and revenue guidance in every quarter since going public last year.</p>\n<p>Another important takeaway is how FUBO has managed to grow significantly, despite other players slowing down dramatically. Netflix, Disney, and many other streaming companies saw a big pull forward effect due to COVID-19. In recent earning reports, both Netflix and Disney reported dismal subscriber growth and outlooks going forward. In fact, Disney's Hulu + Live TV lost 200,000 subscribers in the latest quarter. This streaming service offers some sports channels, but not close to what FUBO offers its members. In fact, when it comes to bundles (Sling, etc.), only FUBO and YouTube TV saw higher subscribers last quarter, which is another great sign for investors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4480c8ac45f5735666aa6e80c0ec0ec\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"345\"><span>Source: Twitter</span></p>\n<p>The company has made terrific strides and is arguably in its best position that it has ever been. We believe that the current share price offers a low-risk/high-reward opportunity for investors right now. From a risk/reward standpoint, investors are risking 15-20% downside for a potential upside of 100%-200%.</p>\n<p>With new streaming rights and agreements in place, strong subscriber growth, and raised guidance — as well as its sports wagering business just around the corner — we feel FUBO is undervalued and a strong buy as the company cements itself as a major player in the streaming world.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>fuboTV: The Party Is Just Getting Started</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nfuboTV: The Party Is Just Getting Started\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-17 19:21 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429173-fubotv-the-party-is-just-getting-started><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFUBO raises guidance and why shares are a strong buy.\nTakeaways from the record-setting first quarter.\nThe big picture and the road ahead.\nFundamental and technical analysis shows FUBO is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429173-fubotv-the-party-is-just-getting-started\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429173-fubotv-the-party-is-just-getting-started","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1109408177","content_text":"Summary\n\nFUBO raises guidance and why shares are a strong buy.\nTakeaways from the record-setting first quarter.\nThe big picture and the road ahead.\nFundamental and technical analysis shows FUBO is undervalued and likely on the verge of a big breakout.\nThe risk/reward has never been better!\n\nPhoto by simpson33/iStock via Getty Images\nIt was the \"shot heard round the world\" and that shot was the earnings report delivered by fuboTV CEO David Gandler to the bears after leading the sports-first streaming TV platform to record-breaking results during the first quarter.\nShares of FUBO (FUBO) surged more than 25% in after-hours action and on heavy volume too with nearly 15 million shares trading, or roughly twice the volume FUBO has seen over its last 10 trading days. Shorts rushed to cover after the company easily beat Wall Street's expectations on the top line, and boosted full-year 2021 revenue guidance and subscribers as well.\nBelow is a look at FUBO's earnings performance over the past three quarters.\n\nOn the top line, the company reported $119.7 million in revenues, easily beating Wall Street's consensus of $103.8 million. This put revenue growth at an impressive 135% on a year-over-year basis.\nOn the bottom line, the company reported earnings per share (\"EPS\") of -$0.55, missing Wall Street's expectations of -$0.46. This was the only blemish in the report, with every other metric exceeding expectations. Investors should note that part of the miss on the bottom line was due to expenses the company incurred for the launch of its wagering business, as well as the amortization of the debt discount related to senior convertible notes. The company also accelerated its investments in its team, technology, and infrastructure during the quarter.\nThe good news is that FUBO is still in its early stages of growth and, because of that, is valued on a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) and not price-to-earnings (P/E). This means that top-line growth is all that matters to Wall Street right now as the bottom-line will sort itself out in the years ahead, similar to how Netflix (NFLX), ROKU (ROKU), and Amazon (AMZN) were for the longest time.\nAs the company continues to grow and ramps up its offerings, profitability will follow. Like most media companies, the metric Wall Street cares most about is subscribers and FUBO certainly delivered as the company added more than 42,000 in the first quarter — up 105% on a year-over-year basis — and easily surpassed analyst expectations.\nQ1 Takeaways\nSubscribers: As noted above, the company added more than 42,000 paid subscribers in the quarter. This may not seem like much; however, Q1 has always been soft due to seasonality issues and has been the company's slowest part of the year.\nThe company, which tends to be conservative, guided for a net loss of around 20K-30K subscribers in Q1. However, instead, the company delivered 105% growth on a year-over-basis and 8% on a quarterly basis. It was the first time in its history that FUBO reported sequential revenue and subscriber growth.\nSource: FUBO Shareholder Letter\nGaining subscribers is arguably the most important metric that Wall Street looks for when it comes to each of the major streaming players (Netflix, Disney(NYSE:DIS), ROKU). Fortunately for FUBO shareholders, the company delivered as it raised its paid subscriber forecast by 10% from 765,000 to 840,000 for 2021.\nThis new figure implies more than 50% growth year-over-year and based on current demand and trajectory — as well as a number of major sporting events on the horizon (Winter and Summer Olympics, World Cup qualifying tournaments, etc.) — we wouldn't be surprised to see management raise its paid subscriber forecast again this year.\n* Midpoint (830K-850K)\nARPU: Gaining subscribers does nothing for the company if it can't successfully monetize its user base. ARPU, or \"average revenue per user,\" is a key metric that measures how well FUBO is monetizing its active accounts. In Q1, ARPU jumped 28% year-over-year to $69.09.\nAnother positive is that advertising ARPU increased 57% to $7.11 on a year-over-year basis.\nSource: FUBO Presentation\nRaised Guidance: For Q2, the company now expects revenue to come in around $121 million, which is well above analyst estimates of $98.3 million. For the full year, the company now expects revenue of around $520-$530 million, compared to $460-$470 million it expected last quarter. Wall Street was expecting revenues of $472 million.\nThe new figures would represent total revenue growth of 95% on a year-over-year basis for the company. The revenue acceleration is extremely impressive considering the company grew 83% last year during the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic. And while the economy opens up and with COVID starting to take a back seat, FUBO still continues to ride the streaming tailwinds as consumers increasingly ditch cable and satellite for streaming providers such as FUBO.\nSource: FUBO Presentation\nThe Road Ahead\nHeading into earnings, FUBO was down nearly 70% from its December high ($62.00), and roughly 60% since February, despite Q4 results beating analyst expectations on revenue and subscriber growth.\nBefore earnings came out, we predicted that FUBO was likely going to see a big post-earnings run similar to what ROKU and Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)experienced. Yes, we realized most tech stocks had been tanking after earnings; however, the big difference between FUBO and most other tech stocks is that many had risen into earnings and the beat was already priced in.\nFUBO was the complete opposite as it had fallen off a cliff heading into ER.As we said, \"every possible negative thing has been priced in at this point and any good news + high short interest could start a squeeze. Looking forward to the update on subscribers and the sportsbook launch.\"\nSource: Twitter\nNow the million-dollar question is, what are shares going to do next?\nPulling up the chart, we can see that FUBO, like most tech stocks, has been in a downtrend trend since February. The good news is that shares have been rising on higher volume and selling off on lower volume lately, signaling that buyers have been accumulating shares.\nAfter earnings were announced, shares climbed to a high of $22.67 (+28%) during after-hours action before closing the day at $21.64. It looked as though the bulls had finally flipped the momentum as shares looked primed for a big run. However, the following day, the bears managed to limit the damage as shares closed at $19.38 (+9.7%), and right at the line of the downward trend. On Thursday, shares then closed down at $18.27 and looked as though they would resume the downward trend and test the $15-$16 levels again.\nHowever, on Friday, shares closed the day at $20.53 (+12%), and back above the downward trendline, as you can see in the image below.\n\nCould this be a breakout? Absolutely.\nCould this be a false breakout? Absolutely.\nThe stock market has been very Jekyll and Hyde lately so it's hard to say where things are headed for the short term. But based on the company's monster earnings beat — crushing analyst expectations and raising guidance — we believe the tide has shifted more towards the bulls and that a sustainable breakout is likely on the way. One factor is just looking at the volume. On the false breakout in March, Shares dropped on heavier volume the following days; however, that hasn't been the case this time around.\nAnd according to the latest short interest figures, roughly 37% of the float is short, which could make for some massive fireworks this week if shares can continue to climb higher. Short interest jumped from 18% on April 15, to 37% on April 30.\nHowever, at the end of the day, we are not in FUBO to make a quick buck. The company is part of our long-term portfolio and we believe, like most analysts covering the company, that shares have the potential to be a multibagger over the next 1-2 years based on current projections.\nBased on the latest earnings results and company outlook, we believe shares — based on Friday's closing price of $20.53 — have minimal downside (15%-20%), and major upside (100-200%) at current levels. The downside in our forecast is not related to the company's fundamentals, but due to heavy short selling as well as current market conditions in which money has rotated out of a lot of growth names and into value and reopening plays (airlines, cruises, hotels, etc.).\nBut as the market warms back up to growth plays again which seems to be happening the last few days, FUBO should return as the market darling once again. Based on Friday's closing price ($20.53), FUBO has a market cap of $2.89 billion. When looking at a P/S ratio, FUBO is trading at just 5.5X sales, and this is not including any revenue from its sports wagering business which is expected to launch at the start of Q4.\nBased on recently raised guidance for 2021, we expect 2022 revenue estimates to increase as well. We are currently forecasting that FUBO can deliver $850 million revenue in 2022. The average analyst estimate is around $825 million, with the highest analyst figure at $900 million. Based on its current market cap, FUBO would be trading at less than 3.5X sales based on our $850 million estimate. That is extremely cheap for a company that is expected to deliver revenue growth of 101% this year and is on track to grow revenues by more than 60% in 2022.\nMost recently, high-growth companies in tech have been given P/S multiples of 20X, 30X, 40X, and even 50X sales — looking at you DraftKings (DKNG), The Trade Desk (TTD), and Snowflake (SNOW) just to name a few. Even Netflix, which reported a very underwhelming quarter in terms of subscribe growth, is still trading at 8X sales right now.\nIf FUBO was trading at 8X sales, which is still very low for a company delivering massive revenue growth like it continues to do, shares would be worth $30.00 per share based on 2021 revenue estimates and $48.00 based on 2022 estimates. Even at 10X sales, shares would be worth $38.00 based on 2021 revenue estimates and $60.00 based on 2022 estimates.\nDraftKings, which is a comparable company to FUBO, currently trades at 15X sales and was trading at more than 25X sales when it set a 52-week high back in late March. Even at 15X sales, that would put FUBO at $56.00 based on 2021 revenue estimates and $90.00 based on 2022 revenue estimates. The companies have slightly different business models, but it goes to show just how undervalued and inexpensive FUBO is at the moment.\nThat's why it's no surprise that the average analyst price target currently sits at $40.88, or roughly 100% upside from current prices. We expect the price target to move up as well throughout the year as the company executes on its plan and overdelivers like it continues to do.\nConclusion\nFrom its IPO ($10 per share) in early October, the stock soared more than 600% ($62) in just a two-month period. Now the market darling is down nearly 70% from its December highs, and roughly 60% since February, despite Q4 results beating analyst expectations on revenue and subscriber growth.\nYes, it has been a wild ride for FUBO shareholders to say the least. The volatility has turned the company into one of the most polarizing battleground stocks in the market.\nOn the one hand, you have analysts Rich Greenfield (LightShed Partners) and Kerrisdale Capital who believe FUBO is worth less than $10 per share. On the other hand, you have analysts like Michael Pachter (Wedbush) and Laura Martin (Needham) who believe FUBO has massive upside with their $53 and $60 price targets.\nFrankly, it's all about the multiples that analysts use. Some give FUBO a premium valuation while others still want FUBO to prove themselves. As the saying goes, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and that's what we have with the average analyst price target currently sitting around $40.\nFUBO is unquestionably a battleground stock, but the bears seem to be losing steam as the company continues to execute flawlessly and overdeliver on its promises. FUBO continues to set records and improve its efficiencies in nearly every category. The monster results and raised guidance only confirm the bull thesis for FUBO and cracks another hole in the bear case.\n\nThanks to the markets doom-and-gloom stance on FUBO over the last three months and due to some unfortunate events — forced selling by Archegos Capital which was a big shareholder in FUBO at the time — the tech selloff, etc., the sports-first streaming TV platform was nearly priced like it was going out of business heading into earnings. And not only did Q1 earnings exceed expectations, but it confirmed the bull case as the company continues to show that it shouldn't be slept on in the streaming industry. Impressively, FUBO has now beaten and raised its subscriber and revenue guidance in every quarter since going public last year.\nAnother important takeaway is how FUBO has managed to grow significantly, despite other players slowing down dramatically. Netflix, Disney, and many other streaming companies saw a big pull forward effect due to COVID-19. In recent earning reports, both Netflix and Disney reported dismal subscriber growth and outlooks going forward. In fact, Disney's Hulu + Live TV lost 200,000 subscribers in the latest quarter. This streaming service offers some sports channels, but not close to what FUBO offers its members. In fact, when it comes to bundles (Sling, etc.), only FUBO and YouTube TV saw higher subscribers last quarter, which is another great sign for investors.\nSource: Twitter\nThe company has made terrific strides and is arguably in its best position that it has ever been. We believe that the current share price offers a low-risk/high-reward opportunity for investors right now. From a risk/reward standpoint, investors are risking 15-20% downside for a potential upside of 100%-200%.\nWith new streaming rights and agreements in place, strong subscriber growth, and raised guidance — as well as its sports wagering business just around the corner — we feel FUBO is undervalued and a strong buy as the company cements itself as a major player in the streaming world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/194354330"}
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