Jesss
2021-05-18
Buy and hold
Is Churchill Capital Stock A Buy Or Sell? What You Should Consider
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What You Should Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185338926","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCCIV's market cap is low, but the implied market cap of Lucid is way higher.\nLucid has stro","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>CCIV's market cap is low, but the implied market cap of Lucid is way higher.</li>\n <li>Lucid has strong designs and great tech and has a lot of potential in the EV space. There are no guarantees for success, however.</li>\n <li>Shares are expensive in absolute terms, but factoring in the strong growth outlook, an investment may pay off.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c25f057d4c42b53162edb4f28b08ee91\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1026\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) will take Lucid Motors (LUCIDM) public, which means that CCIV's shareholders can take a stake in one of the most interesting EV players that has a very ambitious growth plan over the coming years.</p>\n<p>Lucid Motors seems to have very strong tech and its Air model will likely face strong demand in the luxury space. On the other hand, the company is highly valued, considering that it has not sold a single EV yet. Entering a position in CCIV thus means that investors get access to one of the most ambitious growth stocks in the EV space, but on the other hand, the high valuation already accounts for a lot of future growth. If anything goes wrong, shares have a lot of downside potential, which makes CCIV/Lucid a high-risk/high-reward investment. That can be a good choice for some, but others will likely favor staying away or opting for lower-risk choices instead.</p>\n<p><b>CCIV Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Churchill Capital IV, the SPAC that will merge with Lucid Motors, is currently trading at $18 per share, with a market capitalization of $4.7 billion, based on about 260 million shares. This does, however, not mean that Lucid is currently valued at only $4.7 billion. Current shareholders of CCIV will not own 100% of Lucid Motors once the two companies have merged. Instead, current public shareholders of CCIV will own about 13% of the company once the merger is completed, with Churchill sponsors owning an additional 52 million shares:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/152a045a63fef06efefe8ecd8e0d68a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: CCIVfiling</span></p>\n<p>Based on those numbers, Lucid is valued at around $29 billion right now, which makes Lucid one of the more expensive EV players investors can purchase today. For reference, NIO (NIO) is valued at $56 billion, XPeng (XPEV) is valued at $20 billion, Fisker (FSR) is valued at $3 billion, Lordstown Motors (RIDE) is valued at $1.4 billion, and Kandi (KNDI) is valued at $400 million. Of course, Lucid Motors' current market cap still pales compared to the $600 billion market cap that leading EV player Tesla (TSLA) is trading at.</p>\n<p>Looking at CCIV's share price, we see that those that bought early on when the SPAC went public at $10 are up about 80% in well less than a year, for an outstanding return. On the other hand, those that bought into CCIV during the hype phase when shares were trading as high as the $60s are deep in the red, having lost up to 75% of their investment to date. Valuations do matter, and the lower one got into CCIV, the better - for those that disregarded valuation and that let themselves get blinded by the hype, the Lucid story has so far not been a great one.</p>\n<p><b>Lucid Motors Outlook: Great Products - Great Growth?</b></p>\n<p>Lucid Motors is, so far, a company that hasn't delivered any vehicles yet. The company has done some business designing, manufacturing, and selling high-performance batteries for the FIA Formula E series, but apart from further developing Lucid's tech capabilities, this hasn't done a lot for the company's top line. Lucid will roll out its first commercial vehicle, the Lucid Air, later this year. Recently, management has indicated that the company plans to sell more than 577 Lucid Air vehicles this year (the reasoning for this kind of weirdly precise guidance is unknown), with rapid growth being expected for 2022. About 20,000 Lucid Air vehicles in 2022 have been the target in the past, although management has not committed to that number in recent statements.</p>\n<p>Lucid's Air will be released in four versions, the first one being the highest-priced one, called Lucid Air<i>Dream</i>. It starts at a little over $160,000, but reservations are closed already, as Lucid has enough pre-orders relative to the production that is planned. The other three versions of the Lucid Air, called<i>Grand Touring</i>,<i>Touring</i>, and<i>Pure</i>, will start at $131,000, $87,000, and $70,000 respectively. All four cars feature a relatively similar design, although there are differences when it comes to the material that is used, to power output (480-1,080hp), and to their respective range.</p>\n<p>All in all, the three versions clearly feature characteristics that qualify them for the premium/ultra-premium market segment, which is also reflected in the prices that Lucid Motors seeks from its customers. Cars are generally described as well-designed, and with features such as ultra-fast 900 Volt charging, they offer attractive specs to customers. Cars are sold in the same segment as Mercedes-Benz's (OTCPK:DMLRY) new electric S-class equivalent EQS and Tesla's Model S, and it looks like Lucid should have a lot of success in this space due to its strong design and very competitive specs. This is, however, not an overly large market segment, of course, which is why Lucid can't get to a mass-producer level selling its<i>Air</i>alone.</p>\n<p>The company plans to introduce an SUV later on called<i>Gravity</i>which is scheduled for 2023, although that is, of course, not guaranteed. SUVs are a significantly larger market segment compared to luxury sedans such as the Air, and the Gravity will likely also be sold at a lower price point. This combination should allow Lucid to increase its sales considerably versus the forecasted 20,000 vehicles next year, but the real volume expansion will come when Lucid starts selling its expected $25,000 mass-market model at some point during the 2020s. Lucid has additional sedans and SUVs planned for the future, without announcing any details yet.</p>\n<p>One thing that investors should consider is the strong technological basis Lucid is operating on. This includes plans for over-the-air updates, fast charging with 900V, a charging station network, autonomous driving capabilities, etc. The technological capabilities are exemplarily showcased by the following slide out of Lucid's investor presentation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54bc0819be8bab7ac087e2d312e6806d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>Source:Lucid presentation</span></p>\n<p>Despite being a rather small company still, Lucid does not only deliver a technological performance that is on par with peers, but actually way ahead of what other manufacturers are offering right now, at least in terms of efficiency.</p>\n<p>Lucid also has a highly experienced management team, with key personal having previously worked at companies such as Tesla, Jaguar, Audi, Ford (F), and so on. The combination of strong tech, great design, and industry experience results in an above-average chance for success in the EV market that will be highly competitive in coming years. Additionally, Lucid also has plans to become a player in energy storage, following Tesla's path to some degree - although it should be noted that Tesla's energy storage business is not profitable yet. There is, of course, not guarantee for success, and it can't be ruled out that Lucid will eventually fail, although I believe that this is an unlikely scenario.</p>\n<p><b>CCIV Stock Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Looking at Lucid's models and its technological capabilities, it seems highly likely that the company will be able to generate compelling growth in the coming years. This does, however, not automatically translate into share price gains for CCIV/Lucid. Growth prospects for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily mean that equity investors will see gains - sometimes, growth is already priced in. This is clearly shown by the fate of many tech stocks during the dot.com bubble when their underlying business growth remained intact, but shares still sold off massively, as prices already more than accounted for future growth prospects.</p>\n<p>The same may be true for Lucid/CCIV and/or other EV stocks, as valuations in this industry are quite high across the board. Before investing, investors also should consider the following issues that hold true for the automobile industry in general, including legacy names: The automobile industry is cyclical, which means that companies, generally, are vulnerable to recessions. On top of that, automobile companies are capital intensive, generate relatively low returns on capital, and don't operate with strong margins. This is in stark contrast to more attractive industries such as tech, where margins and returns on capital are way higher while resilience versus recessions is superior as well. This isn't a Lucid-specific threat or issue, but something that investors should keep in mind when making any type of EV investment. In a similar way, investors should also always consider that the EV market is highly competitive already and might become even more competitive in coming years, as more legacy automakers introduce EV models, while government support for the industry<i>might</i>fade.</p>\n<p>Considering these facts, still, a case can be made that CCIV is attractively priced right now.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68f85a750397e4ee7c3cfc1bf222a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p>\n<p>Lucid forecasts revenue of $10 billion for 2024. Even when we cut that by 20% in order to factor in that management expectations may be too aggressive, even an $8 billion revenue estimate for 2024 could result in ample upside. Tesla is trading for 18 times trailing revenue (according to YCharts), so by that logic, Lucid may be valued at $144 billion at the end of 2024. Even when we cut this estimate by another 50% in order to account for the fact that Tesla may be overvalued right now (something I personally do believe), a $72 billion market for Lucid in 2024 would leave ample upside potential. Right now, the company is valued at $29 billion, so in this scenario, shares could rise by about 150% over the next three and a half years - while still trading at a massive discount to Tesla, and even when we assume that management's guidance will be missed by 20%. In a similar fashion, one could also show a large discount versus Tesla's valuation based on expected deliveries, EBITDA, and free cash flow in coming years. Tesla, for example, trades at 270 times trailing free cash flows. Since Lucid expects $1.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026, shares might have an upside potential of several hundred percentage points over the coming five years - even when we do, again, cut Tesla's valuation in half and assume that management's estimates are 20% too high.</p>\n<p><b>Is CCIV Stock A Buy Or Sell</b></p>\n<p>I don't think that CCIV stock is a sell - those that own it should have sold at $50 or $60 when the valuation was outrageously high. Selling now, when shares are down so much over the last couple of weeks, wouldn't make sense, I believe.</p>\n<p>Does this mean that CCIV is a buy now? It depends, I'd say. The company has a great product coming out, is well-positioned from a technological perspective, and if management can deliver on its growth goals, shares are way cheaper than those of peers such as Tesla. On the other hand, it is not at all known whether Lucid's ambitious growth goals will indeed be met, and compared to legacy automakers, Lucid looks rather expensive. CCIV, which will turn into shares of Lucid, looks like one of the better picks in the EV space I believe, based on its growth outlook and strong tech. But since the whole EV industry looks rather expensive, that may not mean too much - depending on how bullish you are on the EV space in general. I personally would rate CCIV a hold for most, and a potential buy for those with some appetite for risk who are looking for an investment with a strong return outlook in a bullish scenario.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Churchill Capital Stock A Buy Or Sell? 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What You Should Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-18 19:51 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429333-churchill-capital-stock-buy-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nCCIV's market cap is low, but the implied market cap of Lucid is way higher.\nLucid has strong designs and great tech and has a lot of potential in the EV space. There are no guarantees for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429333-churchill-capital-stock-buy-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429333-churchill-capital-stock-buy-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1185338926","content_text":"Summary\n\nCCIV's market cap is low, but the implied market cap of Lucid is way higher.\nLucid has strong designs and great tech and has a lot of potential in the EV space. There are no guarantees for success, however.\nShares are expensive in absolute terms, but factoring in the strong growth outlook, an investment may pay off.\n\nPhoto by Noam Galai/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nChurchill Capital IV (CCIV) will take Lucid Motors (LUCIDM) public, which means that CCIV's shareholders can take a stake in one of the most interesting EV players that has a very ambitious growth plan over the coming years.\nLucid Motors seems to have very strong tech and its Air model will likely face strong demand in the luxury space. On the other hand, the company is highly valued, considering that it has not sold a single EV yet. Entering a position in CCIV thus means that investors get access to one of the most ambitious growth stocks in the EV space, but on the other hand, the high valuation already accounts for a lot of future growth. If anything goes wrong, shares have a lot of downside potential, which makes CCIV/Lucid a high-risk/high-reward investment. That can be a good choice for some, but others will likely favor staying away or opting for lower-risk choices instead.\nCCIV Stock Price\nChurchill Capital IV, the SPAC that will merge with Lucid Motors, is currently trading at $18 per share, with a market capitalization of $4.7 billion, based on about 260 million shares. This does, however, not mean that Lucid is currently valued at only $4.7 billion. Current shareholders of CCIV will not own 100% of Lucid Motors once the two companies have merged. Instead, current public shareholders of CCIV will own about 13% of the company once the merger is completed, with Churchill sponsors owning an additional 52 million shares:\nSource: CCIVfiling\nBased on those numbers, Lucid is valued at around $29 billion right now, which makes Lucid one of the more expensive EV players investors can purchase today. For reference, NIO (NIO) is valued at $56 billion, XPeng (XPEV) is valued at $20 billion, Fisker (FSR) is valued at $3 billion, Lordstown Motors (RIDE) is valued at $1.4 billion, and Kandi (KNDI) is valued at $400 million. Of course, Lucid Motors' current market cap still pales compared to the $600 billion market cap that leading EV player Tesla (TSLA) is trading at.\nLooking at CCIV's share price, we see that those that bought early on when the SPAC went public at $10 are up about 80% in well less than a year, for an outstanding return. On the other hand, those that bought into CCIV during the hype phase when shares were trading as high as the $60s are deep in the red, having lost up to 75% of their investment to date. Valuations do matter, and the lower one got into CCIV, the better - for those that disregarded valuation and that let themselves get blinded by the hype, the Lucid story has so far not been a great one.\nLucid Motors Outlook: Great Products - Great Growth?\nLucid Motors is, so far, a company that hasn't delivered any vehicles yet. The company has done some business designing, manufacturing, and selling high-performance batteries for the FIA Formula E series, but apart from further developing Lucid's tech capabilities, this hasn't done a lot for the company's top line. Lucid will roll out its first commercial vehicle, the Lucid Air, later this year. Recently, management has indicated that the company plans to sell more than 577 Lucid Air vehicles this year (the reasoning for this kind of weirdly precise guidance is unknown), with rapid growth being expected for 2022. About 20,000 Lucid Air vehicles in 2022 have been the target in the past, although management has not committed to that number in recent statements.\nLucid's Air will be released in four versions, the first one being the highest-priced one, called Lucid AirDream. It starts at a little over $160,000, but reservations are closed already, as Lucid has enough pre-orders relative to the production that is planned. The other three versions of the Lucid Air, calledGrand Touring,Touring, andPure, will start at $131,000, $87,000, and $70,000 respectively. All four cars feature a relatively similar design, although there are differences when it comes to the material that is used, to power output (480-1,080hp), and to their respective range.\nAll in all, the three versions clearly feature characteristics that qualify them for the premium/ultra-premium market segment, which is also reflected in the prices that Lucid Motors seeks from its customers. Cars are generally described as well-designed, and with features such as ultra-fast 900 Volt charging, they offer attractive specs to customers. Cars are sold in the same segment as Mercedes-Benz's (OTCPK:DMLRY) new electric S-class equivalent EQS and Tesla's Model S, and it looks like Lucid should have a lot of success in this space due to its strong design and very competitive specs. This is, however, not an overly large market segment, of course, which is why Lucid can't get to a mass-producer level selling itsAiralone.\nThe company plans to introduce an SUV later on calledGravitywhich is scheduled for 2023, although that is, of course, not guaranteed. SUVs are a significantly larger market segment compared to luxury sedans such as the Air, and the Gravity will likely also be sold at a lower price point. This combination should allow Lucid to increase its sales considerably versus the forecasted 20,000 vehicles next year, but the real volume expansion will come when Lucid starts selling its expected $25,000 mass-market model at some point during the 2020s. Lucid has additional sedans and SUVs planned for the future, without announcing any details yet.\nOne thing that investors should consider is the strong technological basis Lucid is operating on. This includes plans for over-the-air updates, fast charging with 900V, a charging station network, autonomous driving capabilities, etc. The technological capabilities are exemplarily showcased by the following slide out of Lucid's investor presentation:\nSource:Lucid presentation\nDespite being a rather small company still, Lucid does not only deliver a technological performance that is on par with peers, but actually way ahead of what other manufacturers are offering right now, at least in terms of efficiency.\nLucid also has a highly experienced management team, with key personal having previously worked at companies such as Tesla, Jaguar, Audi, Ford (F), and so on. The combination of strong tech, great design, and industry experience results in an above-average chance for success in the EV market that will be highly competitive in coming years. Additionally, Lucid also has plans to become a player in energy storage, following Tesla's path to some degree - although it should be noted that Tesla's energy storage business is not profitable yet. There is, of course, not guarantee for success, and it can't be ruled out that Lucid will eventually fail, although I believe that this is an unlikely scenario.\nCCIV Stock Forecast\nLooking at Lucid's models and its technological capabilities, it seems highly likely that the company will be able to generate compelling growth in the coming years. This does, however, not automatically translate into share price gains for CCIV/Lucid. Growth prospects for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily mean that equity investors will see gains - sometimes, growth is already priced in. This is clearly shown by the fate of many tech stocks during the dot.com bubble when their underlying business growth remained intact, but shares still sold off massively, as prices already more than accounted for future growth prospects.\nThe same may be true for Lucid/CCIV and/or other EV stocks, as valuations in this industry are quite high across the board. Before investing, investors also should consider the following issues that hold true for the automobile industry in general, including legacy names: The automobile industry is cyclical, which means that companies, generally, are vulnerable to recessions. On top of that, automobile companies are capital intensive, generate relatively low returns on capital, and don't operate with strong margins. This is in stark contrast to more attractive industries such as tech, where margins and returns on capital are way higher while resilience versus recessions is superior as well. This isn't a Lucid-specific threat or issue, but something that investors should keep in mind when making any type of EV investment. In a similar way, investors should also always consider that the EV market is highly competitive already and might become even more competitive in coming years, as more legacy automakers introduce EV models, while government support for the industrymightfade.\nConsidering these facts, still, a case can be made that CCIV is attractively priced right now.\nSource: Lucid presentation\nLucid forecasts revenue of $10 billion for 2024. Even when we cut that by 20% in order to factor in that management expectations may be too aggressive, even an $8 billion revenue estimate for 2024 could result in ample upside. Tesla is trading for 18 times trailing revenue (according to YCharts), so by that logic, Lucid may be valued at $144 billion at the end of 2024. Even when we cut this estimate by another 50% in order to account for the fact that Tesla may be overvalued right now (something I personally do believe), a $72 billion market for Lucid in 2024 would leave ample upside potential. Right now, the company is valued at $29 billion, so in this scenario, shares could rise by about 150% over the next three and a half years - while still trading at a massive discount to Tesla, and even when we assume that management's guidance will be missed by 20%. In a similar fashion, one could also show a large discount versus Tesla's valuation based on expected deliveries, EBITDA, and free cash flow in coming years. Tesla, for example, trades at 270 times trailing free cash flows. Since Lucid expects $1.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026, shares might have an upside potential of several hundred percentage points over the coming five years - even when we do, again, cut Tesla's valuation in half and assume that management's estimates are 20% too high.\nIs CCIV Stock A Buy Or Sell\nI don't think that CCIV stock is a sell - those that own it should have sold at $50 or $60 when the valuation was outrageously high. Selling now, when shares are down so much over the last couple of weeks, wouldn't make sense, I believe.\nDoes this mean that CCIV is a buy now? It depends, I'd say. The company has a great product coming out, is well-positioned from a technological perspective, and if management can deliver on its growth goals, shares are way cheaper than those of peers such as Tesla. On the other hand, it is not at all known whether Lucid's ambitious growth goals will indeed be met, and compared to legacy automakers, Lucid looks rather expensive. CCIV, which will turn into shares of Lucid, looks like one of the better picks in the EV space I believe, based on its growth outlook and strong tech. But since the whole EV industry looks rather expensive, that may not mean too much - depending on how bullish you are on the EV space in general. I personally would rate CCIV a hold for most, and a potential buy for those with some appetite for risk who are looking for an investment with a strong return outlook in a bullish scenario.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/194311097"}
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