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2021-05-12

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Qualcomm: What's Left For Investors After Apple's Moves

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":193544437,"tweetId":"193544437","gmtCreate":1620803628129,"gmtModify":1634196170579,"author":{"id":3569304497245903,"idStr":"3569304497245903","authorId":3569304497245903,"authorIdStr":"3569304497245903","name":"Macloser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acdb9b9d932194ddeb0e650cfcb8a947","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Apple!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Apple!</body></html>","text":"Apple!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193544437","repostId":1195501250,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195501250","pubTimestamp":1620803036,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195501250?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm: What's Left For Investors After Apple's Moves","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195501250","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt was foreseeable that Apple would develop its own 5G chips in the medium term and thus ma","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It was foreseeable that Apple would develop its own 5G chips in the medium term and thus massively reduce its dependence on Qualcomm.</li>\n <li>Apple's efforts are unlikely to lose steam. After rumors were out that it will use its own chips as early as 2023, Qualcomm's share price fell by more than 5 percent.</li>\n <li>This article will give a brief overview of what is at stake for Qualcomm and what will be left for investors in the end.</li>\n</ul>\nIt was foreseeable that Apple (AAPL) would develop its own 5G chips in the medium term and thus massively reduce its dependence on Qualcomm (QCOM). Apple is massively accelerating its in-house production. The company had recently reduced its reliance on Intel's CPU with the introduction of its M1 chips massively. Given the current chip shortage, any reduction in the value chain and shifting the design in-house is tempting. Apple's efforts are therefore unlikely to lose steam. At Intel (INTC), we could see the impact of losing Apple as a major customer. But Intel also had to cope with the loss of Microsoft (MSFT) for its laptops, PCs, and servers. Hence, the trend towards in-house design poses major problems for chip manufacturers. In this respect, the market's reaction was predictable when rumors arose that Apple could use its own 5G chips for its productsas early as 2023. After the bomb was out, Qualcomm's share price fell by more than 5 percent.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b18cd2cee617564a85ffc1145d103428\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\">The share is now more than 20 percent away from its high for the year. This article will give a brief overview of what is at stake for Qualcomm and what will be left for investors in the end.\nThe impact on Qualcomm's business\nThe launch of Apple's chip would primarily hit Qualcomm's QCT segment. There, Qualcomm bundles hardware for the transfer of data streams and related services. 5G was a big promise here. Qualcomm achieved growth of 13 percent in the QCT segment in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, growth even amounted to a hefty 81 percent. Qualcomm will have to accept losses here (we will quantify the impact below).\nLess affected will be Qualcomm's QTL segment, which includes licensing of patents held by Qualcomm. The good news here is that the segment will probably not be affected. Apple may design its chips, but the licensing revenue for Qualcomm remains largely unaffected. Qualcomm's most profitable business is, therefore, less threatened. In 2020 the licensing business was responsible for over 60 percent of earnings before taxes (EBT).\nThis distinguishes Qualcomm from Intel, which profits less from a licensing business. In this respect, it is also an interesting question to what extent Apple has to rely on licenses from Qualcomm for its design. While Apple did buy off Intel's efforts for a 5G modem for $1 billion, Intel's results seemed to have been very far from ready for the market. Nevertheless, it should be good news for investors that the profit jewel of Qualcomm's business should remain untouched. In this respect, Qualcomm is somewhat more immune to the trend toward in-house design than, for example, Intel.\nThe attempt to quantify the impact\nIt is more difficult to quantify the impact of an Apple 5G modem on Qualcomm's business. Qualcomm has never really named Apple's share of its sales. So here we have to rely on estimates from others. According to analysts, Qualcomm is said to generateup to 20 percentof its revenue from Apple as a customer. Previously, analysts expected Qualcomm to grow revenue from $23.531 billion (GAAP) in 2020 to $30.980 billion in 2021. By 2024, revenue was expected to increase to 34.2 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03bdd95e14486cdc87d004de98cb278b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"212\">Source: www.dividendstocks.cash\nSo if we make a radical cut here and subtract 20 percent, revenue could fall to just over $27 billion by 2024. However, that would still put Qualcomm above last year's numbers ($23 billion).\nIn 2020, the QCT segment had an EBT margin of 17 percent. Accordingly, (again using a simplified calculation) Qualcomm would take an EBT loss of a bit over $1 billion. Measured against the total2020(!) EBT of $5.7 billion, the EBT loss would be less than 20 percent.\nWhat's left for investors\nEven though the above figures can only provide approximations, we can assume that Qualcomm will lose about one-fifth of its business in terms of expected revenue for 2024 and current EBT. So let's see what's left for investors. We will first look at the discounted cash flow. I take into account a revenue cut of 20 percent from 2023. That is relatively radical. Then I'm assuming that Apple's entire revenue really will be eliminated. I also ignore the fact that growth in other areas could compensate for the loss of sales. So we're talking about a worst-case scenario here. Readers are welcome to adjust their calculations. So, overall, we have the following data for our DCF calculation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865f8ba43e5c7f8b51c91ba25ad46f29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">DCF Model, source: www.alphaspread.com/estimates by author\nBased on my estimates, Qualcomm is still undervalued. The fair intrinsic value is somewhat about $150. Compared to the current market price of $130, there is even an upside potential in the double digits.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db1d114dffddd2da8103c27f93193c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\">Source: alphaspread.com/estimates by author\nThis result is supported by a look at Qualcomm's fundamental key figures. The current adjusted P/E ratio of 20 is in line with the historical average. Measured against the historical P/C ratio of 20, Qualcomm is even undervalued with a P/C ratio of 15. Excluding the loss of Apple as a customer, the annual upside potential until 2024 is 11 percent. Investors must now decide for themselves how large they want to discount Qualcomm's fair value.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db110838b34b09e4c46f43c2d084987\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\">Source: www.dividendstocks.cash\nInvestors must also take into account that Qualcomm will massively expand its product portfolio. In the medium to long term, I think it is pretty likely that Qualcomm will be able to compensate for the loss of Apple as a customer. AsI said before,\n<blockquote>\n My investment thesis was tied to the management's promise that 5G and the increasing networking of technical devices will massively expand the application areas of the respective products. As 5G enables stable and fast data transmissions, its introduction is expected to further strengthen the further interconnection of man and machine and give rise to promising markets such as autonomous driving and IoT.\n</blockquote>\nI believe these considerations are still valid and not threatened. The purchase of Nuvia for $1.4 billion and Qualcomm's efforts around automotive driving are promising efforts to loosen its dependencies. The patents held by Qualcomm in the area of 5G also form a moat. It ensures that Qualcomm will continue to benefit massively from the growing application areas of 5G.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52454473b097b29f96f0a8e9b9af5774\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\">Source:IPlytics Platform,February 2021\nThe dividend will also continue to be affordable since Qualcomm pays out less than 40 percent of cash flow and profit in dividends.\nConclusion\nQualcomm is said to generate up to 20 percent of its revenue from Apple as a customer. In a worst-case scenario, Qualcomm will lose this share by 2024, which hurts. But the company can compensate for this in the long term. Accordingly, it is essential that Qualcomm maintains its lead and further diversifies its revenue sources. I think Qualcomm is currently on a good path. Apple's move was predictable for a long time, and Qualcomm is in the process of reducing dependencies. Even if we quantify the loss of Apple as a customer and its impact, Qualcomm is not overpriced. However, there might be a bumpy road ahead since the market seems to be a bit nervous at this stage. Thus, I don't rule out further share price declines. But in the long term, I remain bullish. The Qualcomm stock is a basic investment in the 5G sector.\n","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm: What's Left For Investors After Apple's Moves</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm: What's Left For Investors After Apple's Moves\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-12 15:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427241-qualcomm-whats-left-for-investors-after-apple-moves>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt was foreseeable that Apple would develop its own 5G chips in the medium term and thus massively reduce its dependence on Qualcomm.\nApple's efforts are unlikely to lose steam. After rumors ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427241-qualcomm-whats-left-for-investors-after-apple-moves\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427241-qualcomm-whats-left-for-investors-after-apple-moves","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1195501250","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt was foreseeable that Apple would develop its own 5G chips in the medium term and thus massively reduce its dependence on Qualcomm.\nApple's efforts are unlikely to lose steam. After rumors were out that it will use its own chips as early as 2023, Qualcomm's share price fell by more than 5 percent.\nThis article will give a brief overview of what is at stake for Qualcomm and what will be left for investors in the end.\n\nIt was foreseeable that Apple (AAPL) would develop its own 5G chips in the medium term and thus massively reduce its dependence on Qualcomm (QCOM). Apple is massively accelerating its in-house production. The company had recently reduced its reliance on Intel's CPU with the introduction of its M1 chips massively. Given the current chip shortage, any reduction in the value chain and shifting the design in-house is tempting. Apple's efforts are therefore unlikely to lose steam. At Intel (INTC), we could see the impact of losing Apple as a major customer. But Intel also had to cope with the loss of Microsoft (MSFT) for its laptops, PCs, and servers. Hence, the trend towards in-house design poses major problems for chip manufacturers. In this respect, the market's reaction was predictable when rumors arose that Apple could use its own 5G chips for its productsas early as 2023. After the bomb was out, Qualcomm's share price fell by more than 5 percent.\nThe share is now more than 20 percent away from its high for the year. This article will give a brief overview of what is at stake for Qualcomm and what will be left for investors in the end.\nThe impact on Qualcomm's business\nThe launch of Apple's chip would primarily hit Qualcomm's QCT segment. There, Qualcomm bundles hardware for the transfer of data streams and related services. 5G was a big promise here. Qualcomm achieved growth of 13 percent in the QCT segment in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, growth even amounted to a hefty 81 percent. Qualcomm will have to accept losses here (we will quantify the impact below).\nLess affected will be Qualcomm's QTL segment, which includes licensing of patents held by Qualcomm. The good news here is that the segment will probably not be affected. Apple may design its chips, but the licensing revenue for Qualcomm remains largely unaffected. Qualcomm's most profitable business is, therefore, less threatened. In 2020 the licensing business was responsible for over 60 percent of earnings before taxes (EBT).\nThis distinguishes Qualcomm from Intel, which profits less from a licensing business. In this respect, it is also an interesting question to what extent Apple has to rely on licenses from Qualcomm for its design. While Apple did buy off Intel's efforts for a 5G modem for $1 billion, Intel's results seemed to have been very far from ready for the market. Nevertheless, it should be good news for investors that the profit jewel of Qualcomm's business should remain untouched. In this respect, Qualcomm is somewhat more immune to the trend toward in-house design than, for example, Intel.\nThe attempt to quantify the impact\nIt is more difficult to quantify the impact of an Apple 5G modem on Qualcomm's business. Qualcomm has never really named Apple's share of its sales. So here we have to rely on estimates from others. According to analysts, Qualcomm is said to generateup to 20 percentof its revenue from Apple as a customer. Previously, analysts expected Qualcomm to grow revenue from $23.531 billion (GAAP) in 2020 to $30.980 billion in 2021. By 2024, revenue was expected to increase to 34.2 billion.\nSource: www.dividendstocks.cash\nSo if we make a radical cut here and subtract 20 percent, revenue could fall to just over $27 billion by 2024. However, that would still put Qualcomm above last year's numbers ($23 billion).\nIn 2020, the QCT segment had an EBT margin of 17 percent. Accordingly, (again using a simplified calculation) Qualcomm would take an EBT loss of a bit over $1 billion. Measured against the total2020(!) EBT of $5.7 billion, the EBT loss would be less than 20 percent.\nWhat's left for investors\nEven though the above figures can only provide approximations, we can assume that Qualcomm will lose about one-fifth of its business in terms of expected revenue for 2024 and current EBT. So let's see what's left for investors. We will first look at the discounted cash flow. I take into account a revenue cut of 20 percent from 2023. That is relatively radical. Then I'm assuming that Apple's entire revenue really will be eliminated. I also ignore the fact that growth in other areas could compensate for the loss of sales. So we're talking about a worst-case scenario here. Readers are welcome to adjust their calculations. So, overall, we have the following data for our DCF calculation.\nDCF Model, source: www.alphaspread.com/estimates by author\nBased on my estimates, Qualcomm is still undervalued. The fair intrinsic value is somewhat about $150. Compared to the current market price of $130, there is even an upside potential in the double digits.\nSource: alphaspread.com/estimates by author\nThis result is supported by a look at Qualcomm's fundamental key figures. The current adjusted P/E ratio of 20 is in line with the historical average. Measured against the historical P/C ratio of 20, Qualcomm is even undervalued with a P/C ratio of 15. Excluding the loss of Apple as a customer, the annual upside potential until 2024 is 11 percent. Investors must now decide for themselves how large they want to discount Qualcomm's fair value.\nSource: www.dividendstocks.cash\nInvestors must also take into account that Qualcomm will massively expand its product portfolio. In the medium to long term, I think it is pretty likely that Qualcomm will be able to compensate for the loss of Apple as a customer. AsI said before,\n\n My investment thesis was tied to the management's promise that 5G and the increasing networking of technical devices will massively expand the application areas of the respective products. As 5G enables stable and fast data transmissions, its introduction is expected to further strengthen the further interconnection of man and machine and give rise to promising markets such as autonomous driving and IoT.\n\nI believe these considerations are still valid and not threatened. The purchase of Nuvia for $1.4 billion and Qualcomm's efforts around automotive driving are promising efforts to loosen its dependencies. The patents held by Qualcomm in the area of 5G also form a moat. It ensures that Qualcomm will continue to benefit massively from the growing application areas of 5G.\nSource:IPlytics Platform,February 2021\nThe dividend will also continue to be affordable since Qualcomm pays out less than 40 percent of cash flow and profit in dividends.\nConclusion\nQualcomm is said to generate up to 20 percent of its revenue from Apple as a customer. In a worst-case scenario, Qualcomm will lose this share by 2024, which hurts. But the company can compensate for this in the long term. Accordingly, it is essential that Qualcomm maintains its lead and further diversifies its revenue sources. I think Qualcomm is currently on a good path. Apple's move was predictable for a long time, and Qualcomm is in the process of reducing dependencies. Even if we quantify the loss of Apple as a customer and its impact, Qualcomm is not overpriced. However, there might be a bumpy road ahead since the market seems to be a bit nervous at this stage. Thus, I don't rule out further share price declines. But in the long term, I remain bullish. The Qualcomm stock is a basic investment in the 5G sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/193544437"}