YWY
2023-06-13
阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀
国泰君安证券点评阿里巴巴:淘天拐点已至,组织架构变革值得期待
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP,发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":186944044838960,"tweetId":"186944044838960","gmtCreate":1686664435862,"gmtModify":1686664437860,"author":{"id":3478516704047330,"idStr":"3478516704047330","authorId":3478516704047330,"authorIdStr":"3478516704047330","name":"YWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀</p></body></html>","text":"阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186944044838960","repostId":2342577673,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2342577673","pubTimestamp":1686536603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2342577673?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-12 10:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"国泰君安证券点评阿里巴巴:淘天拐点已至,组织架构变革值得期待","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342577673","media":"金融界","summary":"我们认为短视频电商回归常态增长意味着淘天的拐点即将到来。抖音并未形成差异化的优势,故对淘天的影响较为可控。阿里进行组织架构变革,淘天将重塑电商竞争力。阿里启动“1+6+N”的组织架构变革,我们看好阿里回归创业者的状态,提升组织灵敏度和组织效率,重新迎来新的发展契机。淘天后续将通过提供差异化内容供给、扶持品牌和中小商家以及推动全面AI化来巩固其市场领先地位,重新回到增长的轨道上来。","content":"<html><body><article><p>给予“增持”评级,目标价为136港元:我们持续看好公司长远发展和后续业绩的增长。预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>2023年-2025年的<span>营业收入</span>分别为9,482/10,532/11,267亿人民币。经调整<span>净利润</span>分别为1,480/1,654/1,901亿人民币。根据SOTP估值法,给予目标价136港元,较最新收盘价有63%的上涨空间。</p><p>短视频电商的兴起同时减少了C端和B端的流量规模,对淘天的市场份额以及广告收入产生了负向影响。淘天本质是流量生意,而短视频APP稀释了淘天App的用户使用时长,短视频电商的崛起减少了部分品类商家在淘天的经营时间和广告投放意愿,故导致淘天的市场份额和广告收入有所下跌。</p><p>我们认为短视频电商回归常态增长意味着淘天的拐点即将到来。以抖音为例,短期内,抖音电商内容场域流量红利接近天花板,货架场域虽然短期仍持续释放流量红利,迅速成长为新的流量引擎。但从长期看,我们认为短视频平台擅长娱乐的基因虽然能够帮助平台在以内容为驱动的内容电商模式上取得先机,但很难在以“多快好省”为核心的货架电商模式上建立竞争优势。抖音并未形成差异化的优势,故对淘天的影响较为可控。</p><p>阿里进行组织架构变革,淘天将重塑电商竞争力。阿里启动“1+6+N”的组织架构变革,我们看好阿里回归创业者的状态,提升组织灵敏度和组织效率,重新迎来新的发展契机。淘天后续将通过提供差异化内容供给、扶持品牌和中小商家以及推动全面AI化来巩固其市场领先地位,重新回到增长的轨道上来。</p><p>风险提示:主营业务竞争风险;系统性风险;政策风险;宏观经济增速下降风险;公司组织架构改革不及预期;研报数据更新不及时等。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰君安证券点评阿里巴巴:淘天拐点已至,组织架构变革值得期待</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国泰君安证券点评阿里巴巴:淘天拐点已至,组织架构变革值得期待\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-12 10:23 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202306121031208272edc4&s=b><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>给予“增持”评级,目标价为136港元:我们持续看好公司长远发展和后续业绩的增长。预计阿里巴巴2023年-2025年的营业收入分别为9,482/10,532/11,267亿人民币。经调整净利润分别为1,480/1,654/1,901亿人民币。根据SOTP估值法,给予目标价136港元,较最新收盘价有63%的上涨空间。短视频电商的兴起同时减少了C端和B端的流量规模,对淘天的市场份额以及广告收入产生了负向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202306121031208272edc4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK1249":"综合零售","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0251144936.SGD":"Fidelity Sustainable Asia Equity A-SGD","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1586":"云计算","LU0293314216.USD":"ALLIANZ GEM EQUITY HIGH DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","02611":"国泰君安","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0348788117.USD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0029874905.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" INC","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","LU0048597586.USD":"富达亚洲焦点A","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK1501":"阿里概念股","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0214875030.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"M2C\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202306121031208272edc4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2342577673","content_text":"给予“增持”评级,目标价为136港元:我们持续看好公司长远发展和后续业绩的增长。预计阿里巴巴2023年-2025年的营业收入分别为9,482/10,532/11,267亿人民币。经调整净利润分别为1,480/1,654/1,901亿人民币。根据SOTP估值法,给予目标价136港元,较最新收盘价有63%的上涨空间。短视频电商的兴起同时减少了C端和B端的流量规模,对淘天的市场份额以及广告收入产生了负向影响。淘天本质是流量生意,而短视频APP稀释了淘天App的用户使用时长,短视频电商的崛起减少了部分品类商家在淘天的经营时间和广告投放意愿,故导致淘天的市场份额和广告收入有所下跌。我们认为短视频电商回归常态增长意味着淘天的拐点即将到来。以抖音为例,短期内,抖音电商内容场域流量红利接近天花板,货架场域虽然短期仍持续释放流量红利,迅速成长为新的流量引擎。但从长期看,我们认为短视频平台擅长娱乐的基因虽然能够帮助平台在以内容为驱动的内容电商模式上取得先机,但很难在以“多快好省”为核心的货架电商模式上建立竞争优势。抖音并未形成差异化的优势,故对淘天的影响较为可控。阿里进行组织架构变革,淘天将重塑电商竞争力。阿里启动“1+6+N”的组织架构变革,我们看好阿里回归创业者的状态,提升组织灵敏度和组织效率,重新迎来新的发展契机。淘天后续将通过提供差异化内容供给、扶持品牌和中小商家以及推动全面AI化来巩固其市场领先地位,重新回到增长的轨道上来。风险提示:主营业务竞争风险;系统性风险;政策风险;宏观经济增速下降风险;公司组织架构改革不及预期;研报数据更新不及时等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/186944044838960"}
精彩评论