Lzoakz
2021-06-14
?
ARKQ: The Technology Trade Is Dead
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":185506051,"tweetId":"185506051","gmtCreate":1623658082773,"gmtModify":1634030556684,"author":{"id":3571099496073631,"idStr":"3571099496073631","authorId":3571099496073631,"authorIdStr":"3571099496073631","name":"Lzoakz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b25fe5f61dfcb3947c3347cb6e1bd6f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185506051","repostId":1155132951,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155132951","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623655851,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155132951?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ARKQ: The Technology Trade Is Dead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155132951","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWhile 2020 was bad for most, it was a great year for technology stocks as retail investors ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>While 2020 was bad for most, it was a great year for technology stocks as retail investors dumped savings into the market and fueled extreme valuation growth.</li>\n <li>This first half of 2021 has seen stagnation in most equities as investors lack cash and borrowing capacity to continue to make purchases.</li>\n <li>As the repurchase market sucks liquidity back out of the system, I suspect that valuations will revert to the mean as hyped-up firms face a harsh reality check.</li>\n <li>ARK Invests ARKQ may face considerable declines as the fund currently has a very high weighted average forward \"P/E\" of around 46X.</li>\n <li>ARKQ's losses could be substantial if top holdings like Tesla continue to face negative real-world trends.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5994f43dbb6bc58f09b1735599cc91c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Adrian Los/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The past year has seen an intense acceleration in the hype surrounding technology companies. Indeed, futuristic technology firms appear to benefit from crises as they offer a place to reserve hope for a better and brighter future. Since January of 2020, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 60%, while thematic funds such as the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ)have more than doubled in value.</p>\n<p>However, the first half of 2021 has seen a potential peak to this hype as ARKQ, and most equities in general, remain virtually unchanged. With valuations, investor margin debt, and \"meme stock mania\" at record levels, investors may want to seriously consider the possibility that the technology bubble is reaching its end. In my view, Bitcoin's recent losses may be an initial \"canary in the coal mine\" that proceeds a much larger crash. While no human can unequivocally time the market, history gifts us with many signals and patterns which are correlated with market peaks.</p>\n<p><b>Market Mania Is Bound By Liquidity</b></p>\n<p>Those who have read some of my recent articles have likely seen the chart below. That said, it seems important that this information be relayed to as many investors as possible. We are currently seeing a combination of factors that set up the scene for an extreme decline in the stock market. Most notably, low cash levels in individual investor's accounts, record margin debt, and near-record valuations (record valuations accounting for other factors). This situation is generally similar to that of 1999-2000, which proceed a 90% decline in the Nasdaq 100. See below:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/772c8c15de8609a9ac61e048226bca75\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The CAPE ratio is slightly below the 1999-2000 levels. That said, if we account for the fact that corporate debt levels are far higher and that profit margins higher than normal (and on a rapid decline due to labor and commodity shortages), it is clear to me that the stock market has never been as expensive as it is today.</p>\n<p>While many believe \"fundamentals no longer matter,\" individual investors lack the cash and borrowing capacity to continue to buy stocks. As such, a small decline in the market could easily turn into a period of rapid selling due to a cascade of negative liquidity impacts. Additionally, as we see in the repurchase agreement market, U.S banks have lent to their capacity, so they are being forced tosend money back to the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<p>Simply put, there are no longer any significant sources of cash that can go into stocks. Thus, even if fundamentals are disregarded today, the fuel (i.e., cash, liquidity) needed to push stocks higher has run dry. Considering it is unlikely the U.S government will give out additional cash stimulus anytime soon, corporate fundamentals will matter as profits are the last remaining source of liquidity.</p>\n<p>If we see a crash sometime this year, I believe that technology stocks have the most to decline. Particularly those with the most thematic hype, such as [ARKQ] - though most other ARK funds are equally at-risk. The primary reasons are that the stocks within these funds are subject to extreme hype, which has pushed their valuations to untenable levels. Secondly, because many of ARKQ's holdings are subject to immense speculation, their valuations are largely dependent on margin debt, which means they are at high risk of suffering a flash crash. Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Time For a Reality Check On Technology</b></p>\n<p>The overall aim of ARKQ is to invest in companies that are expected to benefit from technological and scientific innovation in energy, automation, manufacturing, materials, and transportation. Major industries which include target this theme include autonomous vehicles, robotics, 3D printing, energy storage, and space exploration. Put simply, ARKQ invests in the typical futuristic dream which is held by many today. Through this, the fund allows its investors to feel that they are members in building a better and brighter future.</p>\n<p>Humans are generally attracted to such altruism, but unfortunately, the market system under which we operate favors the bottom line, at least in the long run. I emphasize the long run because it is also the case that financial markets are one of the only outlets where irrationality can breed itself. As a stock surpasses its \"fundamental fair value,\" those withirrational exuberanceappear prophetic, while those focusing on the bottom line numbers appear to be wrong. This encourages investors to shift toward irrational exuberance and away from the hard data - causing valuations to rise ever higher based almost entirely on psychological grounds (as opposed to reality).</p>\n<p>To illustrate, I've gathered the forward EPS expectations for all of ARKQ's holdings and calculated their forward earnings yield. See below:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><b>Ticker</b></td>\n <td><b>Name</b></td>\n <td><b>Price</b></td>\n <td><b>Forward EPS</b></td>\n <td><b>FWD Earnings Yield</b></td>\n <td><b>ETF Weight</b></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:TSLA)</td>\n <td>Tesla Inc</td>\n <td>$603.75</td>\n <td>$4.58</td>\n <td>0.76%</td>\n <td>10.14%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:TRMB)</td>\n <td>Trimble Inc</td>\n <td>$79.30</td>\n <td>$2.44</td>\n <td>3.08%</td>\n <td>6.33%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:JD)</td>\n <td>JD.Com Inc</td>\n <td>$71.58</td>\n <td>$1.63</td>\n <td>2.28%</td>\n <td>6.29%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:KTOS)</td>\n <td>Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc</td>\n <td>$26.21</td>\n <td>$0.36</td>\n <td>1.37%</td>\n <td>5.95%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:GOOG)</td>\n <td>Alphabet Inc Class C</td>\n <td>$2,510.77</td>\n <td>$87.28</td>\n <td>3.48%</td>\n <td>4.90%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:BIDU)</td>\n <td>Baidu Inc ADR Class A</td>\n <td>$188.41</td>\n <td>$9.66</td>\n <td>5.13%</td>\n <td>4.35%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:IRDM)</td>\n <td>Iridium Communications Inc</td>\n <td>$39.48</td>\n <td>-$0.15</td>\n <td>-0.38%</td>\n <td>3.95%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:U)</td>\n <td>Unity Software Inc</td>\n <td>$100.93</td>\n <td>-$0.34</td>\n <td>-0.34%</td>\n <td>3.16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:LMT)</td>\n <td>Lockheed Martin Corporation</td>\n <td>$386.92</td>\n <td>$26.66</td>\n <td>6.89%</td>\n <td>2.92%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:TER)</td>\n <td>Teradyne, Inc.</td>\n <td>$127.61</td>\n <td>$5.34</td>\n <td>4.18%</td>\n <td>2.88%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:DDD)</td>\n <td>3D Systems Corporation</td>\n <td>$30.70</td>\n <td>$0.37</td>\n <td>1.21%</td>\n <td>2.82%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:NXPI)</td>\n <td>NXP Semiconductors NV</td>\n <td>$200.28</td>\n <td>$9.66</td>\n <td>4.82%</td>\n <td>2.77%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(OTCPK:KMTUY)</td>\n <td>Komatsu Ltd</td>\n <td>$28.02</td>\n <td>$1.67</td>\n <td>5.96%</td>\n <td>2.74%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:NIU)</td>\n <td>Niu Technologies - ADR</td>\n <td>$33.92</td>\n <td>$0.64</td>\n <td>1.89%</td>\n <td>2.67%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:DE)</td>\n <td>Deere & Company</td>\n <td>$341.67</td>\n <td>$18.00</td>\n <td>5.27%</td>\n <td>2.64%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:NNDM)</td>\n <td>Nano Dimension Ltd - ADR</td>\n <td>$7.87</td>\n <td>-$0.26</td>\n <td>-3.30%</td>\n <td>2.08%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(OTCPK:BYDDY)</td>\n <td>BYD Company ADR</td>\n <td>$55.21</td>\n <td>$0.49</td>\n <td>0.90%</td>\n <td>1.97%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:CAT)</td>\n <td>Caterpillar Inc.</td>\n <td>$223.21</td>\n <td>$9.86</td>\n <td>4.42%</td>\n <td>1.97%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:PATH)</td>\n <td>UiPath Inc</td>\n <td>$72.50</td>\n <td>-$0.07</td>\n <td>-0.10%</td>\n <td>1.89%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:RAVN)</td>\n <td>Raven Industries, Inc.</td>\n <td>$42.93</td>\n <td>$0.80</td>\n <td>1.86%</td>\n <td>1.87%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:MGA)</td>\n <td>Magna International Inc.</td>\n <td>$98.60</td>\n <td>$7.57</td>\n <td>7.68%</td>\n <td>1.86%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:MTLS)</td>\n <td>Materialise NV</td>\n <td>$23.25</td>\n <td>-$0.10</td>\n <td>-0.43%</td>\n <td>1.52%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:ISRG)</td>\n <td>Intuitive Surgical, Inc.</td>\n <td>$860.02</td>\n <td>$13.47</td>\n <td>1.57%</td>\n <td>1.50%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:AVAV)</td>\n <td>AeroVironment, Inc.</td>\n <td>$111.77</td>\n <td>$1.87</td>\n <td>1.67%</td>\n <td>1.45%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:VUZI)</td>\n <td>Vuzix Corp</td>\n <td>$18.93</td>\n <td>-$0.39</td>\n <td>-2.06%</td>\n <td>1.41%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:NVDA)</td>\n <td>NVIDIA Corporation</td>\n <td>$707.69</td>\n <td>$15.87</td>\n <td>2.24%</td>\n <td>1.41%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:TDY)</td>\n <td>Teledyne Technologies Incorporated</td>\n <td>$423.43</td>\n <td>$11.23</td>\n <td>2.65%</td>\n <td>1.31%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:TSP)</td>\n <td>Tusimple Holdings Inc</td>\n <td>$47.22</td>\n <td>-$2.08</td>\n <td>-4.40%</td>\n <td>1.27%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:TWOU)</td>\n <td>2U Inc</td>\n <td>$39.19</td>\n <td>-$0.37</td>\n <td>-0.94%</td>\n <td>1.19%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(OTCPK:TCEHY)</td>\n <td>Tencent Holdings ADR</td>\n <td>$77.07</td>\n <td>$2.80</td>\n <td>3.63%</td>\n <td>1.19%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:ESLT)</td>\n <td>Elbit Systems Ltd</td>\n <td>$131.24</td>\n <td>$5.88</td>\n <td>4.48%</td>\n <td>1.19%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:SNPS)</td>\n <td>Synopsys, Inc.</td>\n <td>$263.48</td>\n <td>$6.48</td>\n <td>2.46%</td>\n <td>1.16%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:ANSS)</td>\n <td>ANSYS, Inc.</td>\n <td>$337.81</td>\n <td>$6.96</td>\n <td>2.06%</td>\n <td>1.05%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:ACIC)</td>\n <td>Atlas Crest Investment Corp</td>\n <td>$10.03</td>\n <td>$0.00</td>\n <td>0.00%</td>\n <td>1.04%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:PCAR)</td>\n <td>PACCAR Inc</td>\n <td>$91.96</td>\n <td>$5.89</td>\n <td>6.40%</td>\n <td>0.96%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:SPFR)</td>\n <td>Jaws Spitfire Acquisition Corp</td>\n <td>$10.07</td>\n <td>$0.00</td>\n <td>0.00%</td>\n <td>0.94%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:BABA)</td>\n <td>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR</td>\n <td>$212.25</td>\n <td>$10.19</td>\n <td>4.80%</td>\n <td>0.94%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:BLDE)</td>\n <td>Blade Air Mobility Inc</td>\n <td>$10.41</td>\n <td>$0.00</td>\n <td>0.00%</td>\n <td>0.90%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:SSYS)</td>\n <td>Stratasys Ltd</td>\n <td>$23.27</td>\n <td>-$0.24</td>\n <td>-1.03%</td>\n <td>0.89%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:AONE)</td>\n <td>one</td>\n <td>$10.15</td>\n <td>$0.00</td>\n <td>0.00%</td>\n <td>0.75%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NYSE:PRLB)</td>\n <td>Proto Labs Inc</td>\n <td>$88.53</td>\n <td>$1.83</td>\n <td>2.07%</td>\n <td>0.59%</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>(NASDAQ:XONE)</td>\n <td>ExOne Co</td>\n <td>$21.80</td>\n <td>-$0.98</td>\n <td>-4.50%</td>\n <td>0.58%</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Sources:Ark Invest, Seeking Alpha Earnings Data)</i></p>\n<p>Note, I did exclude the two smallest positions within ARKQ's current holdings list as reliable data could not be found for those firms, and they made up tiny portions of ARKQ's assets. Also, I assigned the minor SPAC positions with zero EPS.</p>\n<p>Overall, these holdings have a median forward \"P/E\" ratio of 53X. ARKQ's current weighted-average earnings yield is 2.16%, giving the fund a high forward \"P/E\" of 46X. There are a few other interesting qualities to note about ARKQ's holdings. The fund's largest holdings are generally older, more profitable companies with smaller growth potential. The \"tail\" of its holdings is made up of usually much smaller firms with negative profits and hypothetically greater growth potential. The larger industrial firms offer some protection in case of a large technology crash, but I still estimate the downside risk of ARKQ is quite high.</p>\n<p>Since the 1800'smost equities have usually carried a \"P/E\" ratio of around 15X. This figure usually ranges from 5X-20X depending on the market's cycle. Obviously, valuations are usually higher for those stocks with greater long-term earnings growth potential. While this is slightly accounted for by using forward EPS indeed, ARKQ can still logically command a higher valuation since its holdings<i>should</i>grow at an above-market pace for multiple years.</p>\n<p>Even still, if we say ARKQ's \"fair value\" forward weighted-average FWS \"P/E\" is 30X (a<i>historically</i>high figure), then the fund is overvalued by roughly 52%. In other words, to reach the estimated fair value, ARKQ should fall to $53, which would be a 35% decline. That said, if extreme margin debt levels cause a liquidity crisis among retail investors, as I suspect, then ARKQ could fall much further. It is also possible that the earnings outlooks of these firms are over-exaggerated, considering major firms in ARKW like Tesla are experiencingsubstantial and unexpected demand declines.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>Overall, I would avoid ARKQ as it seems likely that the fund's recent declines may accelerate over the coming months. I am bearish not only because most of its holdings appear to be considerably overvalued, but more importantly because the fuel which has allowed it to become so rich is quickly running dry. In my opinion, this sets the scene for a potential large decline across the stock market.</p>\n<p>The past year has made it clear that equities can rise substantially if individual investors have the cash (or borrowing capacity) to make purchases. Many used stimulus checks, COVID savings, etc., to invest in the market. Today, most investors have little cash on the sidelines and substantial margin debt. Without this fuel, stocks have generally been unable to rise. As we advance, as the repurchase marketsucks liquidity out of the financial system, I believe this period stagnation will likely turn into a period of potentially rapid declines.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARKQ: The Technology Trade Is Dead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARKQ: The Technology Trade Is Dead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 15:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434406-arkq-the-technology-trade-is-dead><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWhile 2020 was bad for most, it was a great year for technology stocks as retail investors dumped savings into the market and fueled extreme valuation growth.\nThis first half of 2021 has seen...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434406-arkq-the-technology-trade-is-dead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434406-arkq-the-technology-trade-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155132951","content_text":"Summary\n\nWhile 2020 was bad for most, it was a great year for technology stocks as retail investors dumped savings into the market and fueled extreme valuation growth.\nThis first half of 2021 has seen stagnation in most equities as investors lack cash and borrowing capacity to continue to make purchases.\nAs the repurchase market sucks liquidity back out of the system, I suspect that valuations will revert to the mean as hyped-up firms face a harsh reality check.\nARK Invests ARKQ may face considerable declines as the fund currently has a very high weighted average forward \"P/E\" of around 46X.\nARKQ's losses could be substantial if top holdings like Tesla continue to face negative real-world trends.\n\nAdrian Los/iStock via Getty Images\nThe past year has seen an intense acceleration in the hype surrounding technology companies. Indeed, futuristic technology firms appear to benefit from crises as they offer a place to reserve hope for a better and brighter future. Since January of 2020, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 60%, while thematic funds such as the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ)have more than doubled in value.\nHowever, the first half of 2021 has seen a potential peak to this hype as ARKQ, and most equities in general, remain virtually unchanged. With valuations, investor margin debt, and \"meme stock mania\" at record levels, investors may want to seriously consider the possibility that the technology bubble is reaching its end. In my view, Bitcoin's recent losses may be an initial \"canary in the coal mine\" that proceeds a much larger crash. While no human can unequivocally time the market, history gifts us with many signals and patterns which are correlated with market peaks.\nMarket Mania Is Bound By Liquidity\nThose who have read some of my recent articles have likely seen the chart below. That said, it seems important that this information be relayed to as many investors as possible. We are currently seeing a combination of factors that set up the scene for an extreme decline in the stock market. Most notably, low cash levels in individual investor's accounts, record margin debt, and near-record valuations (record valuations accounting for other factors). This situation is generally similar to that of 1999-2000, which proceed a 90% decline in the Nasdaq 100. See below:\nData by YCharts\nThe CAPE ratio is slightly below the 1999-2000 levels. That said, if we account for the fact that corporate debt levels are far higher and that profit margins higher than normal (and on a rapid decline due to labor and commodity shortages), it is clear to me that the stock market has never been as expensive as it is today.\nWhile many believe \"fundamentals no longer matter,\" individual investors lack the cash and borrowing capacity to continue to buy stocks. As such, a small decline in the market could easily turn into a period of rapid selling due to a cascade of negative liquidity impacts. Additionally, as we see in the repurchase agreement market, U.S banks have lent to their capacity, so they are being forced tosend money back to the Federal Reserve.\nSimply put, there are no longer any significant sources of cash that can go into stocks. Thus, even if fundamentals are disregarded today, the fuel (i.e., cash, liquidity) needed to push stocks higher has run dry. Considering it is unlikely the U.S government will give out additional cash stimulus anytime soon, corporate fundamentals will matter as profits are the last remaining source of liquidity.\nIf we see a crash sometime this year, I believe that technology stocks have the most to decline. Particularly those with the most thematic hype, such as [ARKQ] - though most other ARK funds are equally at-risk. The primary reasons are that the stocks within these funds are subject to extreme hype, which has pushed their valuations to untenable levels. Secondly, because many of ARKQ's holdings are subject to immense speculation, their valuations are largely dependent on margin debt, which means they are at high risk of suffering a flash crash. Let's take a closer look.\nTime For a Reality Check On Technology\nThe overall aim of ARKQ is to invest in companies that are expected to benefit from technological and scientific innovation in energy, automation, manufacturing, materials, and transportation. Major industries which include target this theme include autonomous vehicles, robotics, 3D printing, energy storage, and space exploration. Put simply, ARKQ invests in the typical futuristic dream which is held by many today. Through this, the fund allows its investors to feel that they are members in building a better and brighter future.\nHumans are generally attracted to such altruism, but unfortunately, the market system under which we operate favors the bottom line, at least in the long run. I emphasize the long run because it is also the case that financial markets are one of the only outlets where irrationality can breed itself. As a stock surpasses its \"fundamental fair value,\" those withirrational exuberanceappear prophetic, while those focusing on the bottom line numbers appear to be wrong. This encourages investors to shift toward irrational exuberance and away from the hard data - causing valuations to rise ever higher based almost entirely on psychological grounds (as opposed to reality).\nTo illustrate, I've gathered the forward EPS expectations for all of ARKQ's holdings and calculated their forward earnings yield. See below:\n\n\n\nTicker\nName\nPrice\nForward EPS\nFWD Earnings Yield\nETF Weight\n\n\n(NASDAQ:TSLA)\nTesla Inc\n$603.75\n$4.58\n0.76%\n10.14%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:TRMB)\nTrimble Inc\n$79.30\n$2.44\n3.08%\n6.33%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:JD)\nJD.Com Inc\n$71.58\n$1.63\n2.28%\n6.29%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:KTOS)\nKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc\n$26.21\n$0.36\n1.37%\n5.95%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:GOOG)\nAlphabet Inc Class C\n$2,510.77\n$87.28\n3.48%\n4.90%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nBaidu Inc ADR Class A\n$188.41\n$9.66\n5.13%\n4.35%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:IRDM)\nIridium Communications Inc\n$39.48\n-$0.15\n-0.38%\n3.95%\n\n\n(NYSE:U)\nUnity Software Inc\n$100.93\n-$0.34\n-0.34%\n3.16%\n\n\n(NYSE:LMT)\nLockheed Martin Corporation\n$386.92\n$26.66\n6.89%\n2.92%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:TER)\nTeradyne, Inc.\n$127.61\n$5.34\n4.18%\n2.88%\n\n\n(NYSE:DDD)\n3D Systems Corporation\n$30.70\n$0.37\n1.21%\n2.82%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:NXPI)\nNXP Semiconductors NV\n$200.28\n$9.66\n4.82%\n2.77%\n\n\n(OTCPK:KMTUY)\nKomatsu Ltd\n$28.02\n$1.67\n5.96%\n2.74%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:NIU)\nNiu Technologies - ADR\n$33.92\n$0.64\n1.89%\n2.67%\n\n\n(NYSE:DE)\nDeere & Company\n$341.67\n$18.00\n5.27%\n2.64%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:NNDM)\nNano Dimension Ltd - ADR\n$7.87\n-$0.26\n-3.30%\n2.08%\n\n\n(OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD Company ADR\n$55.21\n$0.49\n0.90%\n1.97%\n\n\n(NYSE:CAT)\nCaterpillar Inc.\n$223.21\n$9.86\n4.42%\n1.97%\n\n\n(NYSE:PATH)\nUiPath Inc\n$72.50\n-$0.07\n-0.10%\n1.89%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:RAVN)\nRaven Industries, Inc.\n$42.93\n$0.80\n1.86%\n1.87%\n\n\n(NYSE:MGA)\nMagna International Inc.\n$98.60\n$7.57\n7.68%\n1.86%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:MTLS)\nMaterialise NV\n$23.25\n-$0.10\n-0.43%\n1.52%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:ISRG)\nIntuitive Surgical, Inc.\n$860.02\n$13.47\n1.57%\n1.50%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:AVAV)\nAeroVironment, Inc.\n$111.77\n$1.87\n1.67%\n1.45%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:VUZI)\nVuzix Corp\n$18.93\n-$0.39\n-2.06%\n1.41%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:NVDA)\nNVIDIA Corporation\n$707.69\n$15.87\n2.24%\n1.41%\n\n\n(NYSE:TDY)\nTeledyne Technologies Incorporated\n$423.43\n$11.23\n2.65%\n1.31%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:TSP)\nTusimple Holdings Inc\n$47.22\n-$2.08\n-4.40%\n1.27%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:TWOU)\n2U Inc\n$39.19\n-$0.37\n-0.94%\n1.19%\n\n\n(OTCPK:TCEHY)\nTencent Holdings ADR\n$77.07\n$2.80\n3.63%\n1.19%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:ESLT)\nElbit Systems Ltd\n$131.24\n$5.88\n4.48%\n1.19%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:SNPS)\nSynopsys, Inc.\n$263.48\n$6.48\n2.46%\n1.16%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:ANSS)\nANSYS, Inc.\n$337.81\n$6.96\n2.06%\n1.05%\n\n\n(NYSE:ACIC)\nAtlas Crest Investment Corp\n$10.03\n$0.00\n0.00%\n1.04%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:PCAR)\nPACCAR Inc\n$91.96\n$5.89\n6.40%\n0.96%\n\n\n(NYSE:SPFR)\nJaws Spitfire Acquisition Corp\n$10.07\n$0.00\n0.00%\n0.94%\n\n\n(NYSE:BABA)\nAlibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR\n$212.25\n$10.19\n4.80%\n0.94%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:BLDE)\nBlade Air Mobility Inc\n$10.41\n$0.00\n0.00%\n0.90%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:SSYS)\nStratasys Ltd\n$23.27\n-$0.24\n-1.03%\n0.89%\n\n\n(NYSE:AONE)\none\n$10.15\n$0.00\n0.00%\n0.75%\n\n\n(NYSE:PRLB)\nProto Labs Inc\n$88.53\n$1.83\n2.07%\n0.59%\n\n\n(NASDAQ:XONE)\nExOne Co\n$21.80\n-$0.98\n-4.50%\n0.58%\n\n\n\n(Sources:Ark Invest, Seeking Alpha Earnings Data)\nNote, I did exclude the two smallest positions within ARKQ's current holdings list as reliable data could not be found for those firms, and they made up tiny portions of ARKQ's assets. Also, I assigned the minor SPAC positions with zero EPS.\nOverall, these holdings have a median forward \"P/E\" ratio of 53X. ARKQ's current weighted-average earnings yield is 2.16%, giving the fund a high forward \"P/E\" of 46X. There are a few other interesting qualities to note about ARKQ's holdings. The fund's largest holdings are generally older, more profitable companies with smaller growth potential. The \"tail\" of its holdings is made up of usually much smaller firms with negative profits and hypothetically greater growth potential. The larger industrial firms offer some protection in case of a large technology crash, but I still estimate the downside risk of ARKQ is quite high.\nSince the 1800'smost equities have usually carried a \"P/E\" ratio of around 15X. This figure usually ranges from 5X-20X depending on the market's cycle. Obviously, valuations are usually higher for those stocks with greater long-term earnings growth potential. While this is slightly accounted for by using forward EPS indeed, ARKQ can still logically command a higher valuation since its holdingsshouldgrow at an above-market pace for multiple years.\nEven still, if we say ARKQ's \"fair value\" forward weighted-average FWS \"P/E\" is 30X (ahistoricallyhigh figure), then the fund is overvalued by roughly 52%. In other words, to reach the estimated fair value, ARKQ should fall to $53, which would be a 35% decline. That said, if extreme margin debt levels cause a liquidity crisis among retail investors, as I suspect, then ARKQ could fall much further. It is also possible that the earnings outlooks of these firms are over-exaggerated, considering major firms in ARKW like Tesla are experiencingsubstantial and unexpected demand declines.\nThe Bottom Line\nOverall, I would avoid ARKQ as it seems likely that the fund's recent declines may accelerate over the coming months. I am bearish not only because most of its holdings appear to be considerably overvalued, but more importantly because the fuel which has allowed it to become so rich is quickly running dry. In my opinion, this sets the scene for a potential large decline across the stock market.\nThe past year has made it clear that equities can rise substantially if individual investors have the cash (or borrowing capacity) to make purchases. Many used stimulus checks, COVID savings, etc., to invest in the market. Today, most investors have little cash on the sidelines and substantial margin debt. Without this fuel, stocks have generally been unable to rise. As we advance, as the repurchase marketsucks liquidity out of the financial system, I believe this period stagnation will likely turn into a period of potentially rapid declines.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/185506051"}
精彩评论