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2021-06-11

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Here’s why Art Cashin says the S&P 500′s move to a new record may be ‘slightly suspect’

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They pull back into that rectangle [trading range], so we’re going to give it a couple of days of testing and see what happens.”\nThe S&P 500 was up by about 0.3% on Thursday. The broad equity index has gained about 1% in the past month, compared with a roughly 4% gain for the tech-heavyNasdaq Composite.\nCashin, who serves as director of floor operations for UBS at the New York Stock Exchange, said he’s looking for an indication of strong buying pressure to help sustain the S&P 500′s move higher.\n“You’d like to believe when you punch through the upside of a market pattern, that inspires both breakout buying and, in some cases, short covering, so you should see a kind of burst after you move out,” Cashin said. “No burst so far, and without that then you’ve got to say the moves are slightly suspect.”\nThe Wall Street veteran also weighed in on the bond market following Thursday’shotter-than-expected read on May consumer prices, the latest data point showing inflationary pressures across the economy.\nThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasurywas steady Thursday,trading around 1.49%. Yields, which move inversely to prices, have trended lower in recent weeks afterhitting 1.7% about a month ago.\nCashin said a critical yield level to watch is 1.35%.\n“If any of these disinflationary, deflationary moves become evident, then I would have to back up. I think we might again start to move lower,” Cashin said, noting that there’s already been a relative cooling off in some commoditiessuch as lumber.\nIf the 10-year yield slides all the way back to 1.35% and “we move through it, then that will tell me that there is something going on here, that people are saying, ‘Inflation? No. Not at all,’” Cashin said. “We’re going from transitory to possibly deflationary. 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