$4 within a year

$Ardelyx(ARDX)$ My latest thinking is that after CRL gets issued, company will have 50% shot at submitting an amendment to address CRL to get the drug approved without a new trial, and 50% shot at getting the drug approved with a new trial. So, I can see a 50% chance of hitting $4 within a year, and 50% chance of hitting $3 within a year. Either way, see $3.50 as fair value and anything less than that as discount due to fear of unknown which will wash away as more information comes thru.$Ardelyx(ARDX)$