lihao238
2018-04-03
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@夏夏夏:
Spotify估值一瞥
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这篇文章不错,转发给大家看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174407","repostId":174400,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":174400,"tweetId":"174400","gmtCreate":1522751020364,"gmtModify":1705477769831,"author":{"id":163879441421586,"authorId":163879441421586,"authorIdStr":"163879441421586","name":"夏夏夏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae2606862e6fc6213bbfb1de0eef2c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":15497,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/e7221788a3f9752ae50cd7f46951637a"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/5d53b879134d22ec35286e7e06c5808d"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/47e161bee027d5b190ba69650e4d6a33"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/51d6a90253d1795eed4143f41ea39101"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/e7221788a3f9752ae50cd7f46951637a"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/5d53b879134d22ec35286e7e06c5808d"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/47e161bee027d5b190ba69650e4d6a33"}],"title":"Spotify估值一瞥","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Spotify $(SPOT)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">应是今年最受期待的科技股</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">上市</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。过去几年里,这家瑞典音乐流媒体公司已经拿下近</span>1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿付费用户,成为世界上最大独角兽公司之一。去年</span>12<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月,中国互联网巨头腾讯曾以</span>190<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元的估值收购</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">部分股权。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">根据</span>CBInsights<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的名单,目前只有</span>7<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">家独角兽规模超过了</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。其中包括</span>Uber(680<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,多年来一直高居榜首</span>;<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">滴滴</span>(560<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,中国的</span>Uber);Airbnb(293<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>);<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">和</span>Palantir(200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。由于这些公司都不打算在近期</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">很可能是长期以来最引人注目的</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">之一。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">如各位所知,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">上市</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">是不寻常的“直接上市”——意味着没有投行,没有路演,没有筹资,也没有为每股设定发行价。并不像通常大家看到那样</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">承销商会设置发行价,供需双方将决定</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">交易首日的价格。通常新股</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">首日股价会出现“急升”,因为承销商人为压低了股票价格,以保证机构投资者的良好回报。例如</span>Dropbox$(DBX)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">定价为</span>21<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元,但以</span>29<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的价格开盘,涨幅</span>40%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light';\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">没有人为的低发行价,没有投行在上下方向稳定发行价,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的波动性可能远高于大家通常看到的</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。然后,需要告诉大家的是,加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span>(RBC Capital Markets)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">给出了</span>Spotify225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的目标价,其他券商的目标价是</span>200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。如果是</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元每股,</span>1.84<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿股对应着</span>414<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元的估值,这是最近私人估值的两倍多。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">那么,这个价格合理吗</span>?<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">我们从三个重要的指标来测算下</span>:<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">营收、订阅用户和</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <h3><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">营收</span></h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">对于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">来说,这个最简单的估值模型也可能是最不可靠的。市销率在评估</span>SaaS<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">类</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">时是有用的,因为这类公司都具有类似的特点——</span>70%-80%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的高毛利率,以及经常订阅的基础。但在互联网领域——尤其是在</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,收入和利润率分布差异很大</span>。</p> <p>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最近发布了</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年财年指导,预计收入在</span>49<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿</span>--53<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿欧元,即同比增长</span>20%-30%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/e7221788a3f9752ae50cd7f46951637a\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">今天的汇率是</span>1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">欧元兑</span>1.23<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元,这意味着营收区间在</span>60.3<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿到</span>65.2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元之间。以</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元每股价格计算,意味着</span>6.6<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">倍的市销率。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">由于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">主要做订阅业务</span>(<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尽管免费用户占了</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一半以上,但免费用户支撑的广告营收仅占其收入的十分之一</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,因此,将其收入与其他互联网订阅业务进行比较是</span>ok<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的。而且,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">已经赢得了一个流行绰号:“音乐奈飞”。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/51d6a90253d1795eed4143f41ea39101\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尽管</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尚未正式发布</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年收入指导,但其首席执行官里德•哈斯丁</span>(Reed Hastings)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">预计今年收入</span>150<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元。更具体地说,华尔街分析师的预期收入目标为</span>158.2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>(<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">相对</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年同比增</span>34%)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">目前市值</span>1281.7<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,也就是</span>8.1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">倍的市销率。看起来,加拿大皇家银行的目标价还是可以有的。但要注意是,</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的毛利率是</span>34%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,</span>spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">只有</span>21%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。另外,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">预计</span>34%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的增长率也高于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的</span>20% -30%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的增长幅度,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的规模是</span>spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的两倍多,所以</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">溢价是合理的。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">还有一个比较容易做的比较,对比潘多拉</span>$(P)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">——音乐流媒体领域中</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">唯一真正的纯音乐播放器对手。</span>Pandora<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">目前的市值仅为</span>12.8<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,和</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一样,它也没有正式发布</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年的收入指导,但华尔街对其今年收入共识为</span>15.1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,意味着市销率</span>0.9<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">拜</span>spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">所赐,潘多拉正处在垂死边缘,广告收入停滞不前,订阅增长无法弥补平淡的营收增长。尽管如此,这个预期市销率之差还是相当大的。</span></p> <h3><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">订阅用户数</span></h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">还可以从订阅用户的维度比较,由于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">会员每月</span>9.99<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元和</span>Pandora<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">、</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一样,因此不讨论毛利差值,就可以比较订户数(</span>Pandora<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">有一个名为</span>Pandora Plus<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的流媒体服务,每月收费</span>4.99<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元,下文会区别讨论</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">是这几家公司里唯一发布了</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">订阅数指南的公司,我们将对比</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年的数据。一起看下</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在付费订阅方面的历史增长</span>:</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/47e161bee027d5b190ba69650e4d6a33\"></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">排除价格变动,每个订阅用户每年带来</span>120<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元营收</span> – <span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">假设用户零流失(历史上流失率在</span>5-6<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">%之间,不过净增加超过了它),订阅基础为</span>7100<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万用户的年度经常性营收价值为</span>85<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元。</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年,我们注意到</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">预计将有</span>9200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万</span>-9600<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万的订阅用户,同比增长</span>30%-36<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">%。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">再次使用</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的最高估值</span>414<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元来分析,基于</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年订阅基数,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">每用户的市场价值为</span>583<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。考虑到每个订阅用户每年带来</span>120<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的收入(不包括他们每月的免费试用或流失),这并没有太不合理。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">另一方面,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年底有</span>1.1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿付费用户,每个用户的市场价值达到</span>1158<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元——嗯,再次溢价</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年底,潘多拉有</span>548<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万付费用户,与</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">相比,这个数字微不足道。这意味着每用户的市场价值为</span>234<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元——不过,潘多拉的大部分用户来自于</span>5<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元</span>/<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月的</span>Pandora plus<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">另一个可以做比较的是爱奇艺</span>$(IQ)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,所谓的“中国奈飞”</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,上周刚刚在美国上市。爱奇艺目前的市值为</span>109.99<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,</span>5080<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万付费用户即每位订阅用户</span>216<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。</span></p> <h3>MAUs</h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最后,我们还可以像许多互联网投资者一样,在</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">基础上评估</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的估值。使用</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">作为指标相对订阅者的分析优势是,可以捕捉到</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">免费用户的价值</span> - <span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">虽然这部分收入并不像会员那么多,但它们确实有助于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的规模。像</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">这样的订阅企业不会报告每月活跃用户,但其他大型互联网公司如</span>Facebook$(FB)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">和</span>Twitter$(TWTR)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">都会报告。</span></p> <p>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">报告了</span>1.57<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,如下所示:</span></p> <p><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/5d53b879134d22ec35286e7e06c5808d\"></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">使用与上述相同的逻辑,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">市值</span>415<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元意味着<strong>每</strong></span><strong>MAU264</strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">我们还注意到,</span>18<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年预计</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">同比增长</span>26%-32<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">%,会达到</span>1.98<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿</span>-2.08<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿的范围。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在剑桥分析公司事件爆发后,</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的市值仅为</span>4641.9<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元。</span>FB<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年结束时报告了</span>21.3<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿的</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,每个</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">价值为</span>218<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。考虑到</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">用户已经严重饱和,其</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">同比增长率为</span>14%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,比</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">低得多。这使得</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的每</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">估值显得合理。</span></p> <p>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年,推特</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">为</span>3.3<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿,增长乏力。目前推特市值为</span>217.8<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,对应为</span>66<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元</span>/ MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>Snap<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的情况是,它公布了每日活跃用户</span>(DAUs)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,而不是</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。显然,</span>DAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">比</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">更有价值,不过这两个指标并不能做同类比较。截止到</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年,</span>Snap<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的</span>DAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">为</span>1.87<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿,目前市值为</span>194.7<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,即每</span>MAU 104<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。</span></p> <h3><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最后</span></h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">当用</span>Netflix$(NFLX)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">作为</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">估值之锚,</span>200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元至</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的价格区间似乎不那么不合理。</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元对应</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">市值为</span>414<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,虽然是</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最近私人估值</span>190<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元的两倍多,从营收和每订阅用户价值而言仍比</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">便宜。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">然而,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的毛利率远高于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">——理论上使其收益流和用户群比</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">更有价值。</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">增长也略快一些,并产生了强劲的</span>EBITDA<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">有必要给大家一些常识性提示,由于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">直接上市,波动性必然更高;应当关注</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的估值,注意不要盲目交易。</span></p> <p><em><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">本文翻译自seekingalpha.com</span></em></p> <p><em><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light';\">免责声明:本文仅表达我的观点,仅供参考,并非建议买入或卖出任何证券。投资有失去本金的风险。请始终进行自己的研究,并认真考虑您的投资决策。</span></em></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Spotify $(SPOT)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">应是今年最受期待的科技股</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">上市</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。过去几年里,这家瑞典音乐流媒体公司已经拿下近</span>1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿付费用户,成为世界上最大独角兽公司之一。去年</span>12<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月,中国互联网巨头腾讯曾以</span>190<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元的估值收购</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">部分股权。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">根据</span>CBInsights<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的名单,目前只有</span>7<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">家独角兽规模超过了</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。其中包括</span>Uber(680<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,多年来一直高居榜首</span>;<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">滴滴</span>(560<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,中国的</span>Uber);Airbnb(293<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>);<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">和</span>Palantir(200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。由于这些公司都不打算在近期</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">很可能是长期以来最引人注目的</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">之一。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">如各位所知,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">上市</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">是不寻常的“直接上市”——意味着没有投行,没有路演,没有筹资,也没有为每股设定发行价。并不像通常大家看到那样</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">承销商会设置发行价,供需双方将决定</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">交易首日的价格。通常新股</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">首日股价会出现“急升”,因为承销商人为压低了股票价格,以保证机构投资者的良好回报。例如</span>Dropbox$(DBX)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">定价为</span>21<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元,但以</span>29<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的价格开盘,涨幅</span>40%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light';\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">没有人为的低发行价,没有投行在上下方向稳定发行价,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的波动性可能远高于大家通常看到的</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。然后,需要告诉大家的是,加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span>(RBC Capital Markets)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">给出了</span>Spotify225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的目标价,其他券商的目标价是</span>200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。如果是</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元每股,</span>1.84<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿股对应着</span>414<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元的估值,这是最近私人估值的两倍多。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">那么,这个价格合理吗</span>?<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">我们从三个重要的指标来测算下</span>:<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">营收、订阅用户和</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <h3><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">营收</span></h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">对于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">来说,这个最简单的估值模型也可能是最不可靠的。市销率在评估</span>SaaS<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">类</span>IPO<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">时是有用的,因为这类公司都具有类似的特点——</span>70%-80%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的高毛利率,以及经常订阅的基础。但在互联网领域——尤其是在</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,收入和利润率分布差异很大</span>。</p> <p>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最近发布了</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年财年指导,预计收入在</span>49<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿</span>--53<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿欧元,即同比增长</span>20%-30%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/e7221788a3f9752ae50cd7f46951637a\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">今天的汇率是</span>1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">欧元兑</span>1.23<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元,这意味着营收区间在</span>60.3<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿到</span>65.2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元之间。以</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元每股价格计算,意味着</span>6.6<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">倍的市销率。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">由于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">主要做订阅业务</span>(<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尽管免费用户占了</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一半以上,但免费用户支撑的广告营收仅占其收入的十分之一</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,因此,将其收入与其他互联网订阅业务进行比较是</span>ok<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的。而且,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">已经赢得了一个流行绰号:“音乐奈飞”。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/51d6a90253d1795eed4143f41ea39101\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尽管</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尚未正式发布</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年收入指导,但其首席执行官里德•哈斯丁</span>(Reed Hastings)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">预计今年收入</span>150<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元。更具体地说,华尔街分析师的预期收入目标为</span>158.2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元</span>(<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">相对</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年同比增</span>34%)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">目前市值</span>1281.7<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,也就是</span>8.1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">倍的市销率。看起来,加拿大皇家银行的目标价还是可以有的。但要注意是,</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的毛利率是</span>34%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,</span>spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">只有</span>21%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。另外,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">预计</span>34%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的增长率也高于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的</span>20% -30%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的增长幅度,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的规模是</span>spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的两倍多,所以</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">溢价是合理的。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">还有一个比较容易做的比较,对比潘多拉</span>$(P)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">——音乐流媒体领域中</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">唯一真正的纯音乐播放器对手。</span>Pandora<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">目前的市值仅为</span>12.8<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,和</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一样,它也没有正式发布</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年的收入指导,但华尔街对其今年收入共识为</span>15.1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,意味着市销率</span>0.9<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">拜</span>spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">所赐,潘多拉正处在垂死边缘,广告收入停滞不前,订阅增长无法弥补平淡的营收增长。尽管如此,这个预期市销率之差还是相当大的。</span></p> <h3><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">订阅用户数</span></h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">还可以从订阅用户的维度比较,由于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">会员每月</span>9.99<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元和</span>Pandora<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">、</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一样,因此不讨论毛利差值,就可以比较订户数(</span>Pandora<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">有一个名为</span>Pandora Plus<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的流媒体服务,每月收费</span>4.99<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元,下文会区别讨论</span>)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">是这几家公司里唯一发布了</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">订阅数指南的公司,我们将对比</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年的数据。一起看下</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在付费订阅方面的历史增长</span>:</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/47e161bee027d5b190ba69650e4d6a33\"></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">排除价格变动,每个订阅用户每年带来</span>120<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元营收</span> – <span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">假设用户零流失(历史上流失率在</span>5-6<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">%之间,不过净增加超过了它),订阅基础为</span>7100<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万用户的年度经常性营收价值为</span>85<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元。</span>2018<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年,我们注意到</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">预计将有</span>9200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万</span>-9600<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万的订阅用户,同比增长</span>30%-36<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">%。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">再次使用</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的最高估值</span>414<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元来分析,基于</span>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年订阅基数,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">每用户的市场价值为</span>583<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。考虑到每个订阅用户每年带来</span>120<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的收入(不包括他们每月的免费试用或流失),这并没有太不合理。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">另一方面,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年底有</span>1.1<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿付费用户,每个用户的市场价值达到</span>1158<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元——嗯,再次溢价</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年底,潘多拉有</span>548<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万付费用户,与</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">相比,这个数字微不足道。这意味着每用户的市场价值为</span>234<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元——不过,潘多拉的大部分用户来自于</span>5<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元</span>/<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月的</span>Pandora plus<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">另一个可以做比较的是爱奇艺</span>$(IQ)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,所谓的“中国奈飞”</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,上周刚刚在美国上市。爱奇艺目前的市值为</span>109.99<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,</span>5080<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万付费用户即每位订阅用户</span>216<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。</span></p> <h3>MAUs</h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最后,我们还可以像许多互联网投资者一样,在</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">基础上评估</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的估值。使用</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">作为指标相对订阅者的分析优势是,可以捕捉到</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">免费用户的价值</span> - <span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">虽然这部分收入并不像会员那么多,但它们确实有助于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的规模。像</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">这样的订阅企业不会报告每月活跃用户,但其他大型互联网公司如</span>Facebook$(FB)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">和</span>Twitter$(TWTR)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">都会报告。</span></p> <p>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">报告了</span>1.57<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,如下所示:</span></p> <p><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/5d53b879134d22ec35286e7e06c5808d\"></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">使用与上述相同的逻辑,</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">市值</span>415<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元意味着<strong>每</strong></span><strong>MAU264</strong><strong><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">我们还注意到,</span>18<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年预计</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">同比增长</span>26%-32<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">%,会达到</span>1.98<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿</span>-2.08<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿的范围。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在剑桥分析公司事件爆发后,</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的市值仅为</span>4641.9<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元。</span>FB<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">在</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年结束时报告了</span>21.3<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿的</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,每个</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">价值为</span>218<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。考虑到</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">用户已经严重饱和,其</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">同比增长率为</span>14%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,比</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">低得多。这使得</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的每</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">估值显得合理。</span></p> <p>2017<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">财年,推特</span>MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">为</span>3.3<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿,增长乏力。目前推特市值为</span>217.8<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,对应为</span>66<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元</span>/ MAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>Snap<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的情况是,它公布了每日活跃用户</span>(DAUs)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">,而不是</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。显然,</span>DAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">比</span>MAUs<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">更有价值,不过这两个指标并不能做同类比较。截止到</span>FY17<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年,</span>Snap<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的</span>DAU<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">为</span>1.87<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿,目前市值为</span>194.7<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,即每</span>MAU 104<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元。</span></p> <h3><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最后</span></h3> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">当用</span>Netflix$(NFLX)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">作为</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">估值之锚,</span>200<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元至</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元的价格区间似乎不那么不合理。</span>225<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">美元对应</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">市值为</span>414<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元,虽然是</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最近私人估值</span>190<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿美元的两倍多,从营收和每订阅用户价值而言仍比</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">便宜。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">然而,</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的毛利率远高于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">——理论上使其收益流和用户群比</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">更有价值。</span>Netflix<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">增长也略快一些,并产生了强劲的</span>EBITDA<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">有必要给大家一些常识性提示,由于</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">直接上市,波动性必然更高;应当关注</span>Spotify<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的估值,注意不要盲目交易。</span></p> <p><em><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">本文翻译自seekingalpha.com</span></em></p> <p><em><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light';\">免责声明:本文仅表达我的观点,仅供参考,并非建议买入或卖出任何证券。投资有失去本金的风险。请始终进行自己的研究,并认真考虑您的投资决策。</span></em></p></body></html>","text":"Spotify $(SPOT)$应是今年最受期待的科技股上市。过去几年里,这家瑞典音乐流媒体公司已经拿下近1亿付费用户,成为世界上最大独角兽公司之一。去年12月,中国互联网巨头腾讯曾以190亿美元的估值收购Spotify部分股权。 根据CBInsights的名单,目前只有7家独角兽规模超过了Spotify。其中包括Uber(680亿美元),多年来一直高居榜首;滴滴(560亿美元,中国的Uber);Airbnb(293亿美元);和Palantir(200亿美元)。由于这些公司都不打算在近期IPO,Spotify很可能是长期以来最引人注目的IPO之一。 如各位所知,Spotify的上市是不寻常的“直接上市”——意味着没有投行,没有路演,没有筹资,也没有为每股设定发行价。并不像通常大家看到那样IPO承销商会设置发行价,供需双方将决定Spotify交易首日的价格。通常新股IPO首日股价会出现“急升”,因为承销商人为压低了股票价格,以保证机构投资者的良好回报。例如Dropbox$(DBX)$定价为21美元,但以29美元的价格开盘,涨幅40%。 没有人为的低发行价,没有投行在上下方向稳定发行价,Spotify的波动性可能远高于大家通常看到的IPO。然后,需要告诉大家的是,加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)给出了Spotify225美元的目标价,其他券商的目标价是200美元。如果是225美元每股,1.84亿股对应着414亿美元的估值,这是最近私人估值的两倍多。 那么,这个价格合理吗?我们从三个重要的指标来测算下:营收、订阅用户和MAUs。 营收 对于Spotify来说,这个最简单的估值模型也可能是最不可靠的。市销率在评估SaaS类IPO时是有用的,因为这类公司都具有类似的特点——70%-80%的高毛利率,以及经常订阅的基础。但在互联网领域——尤其是在Spotify,收入和利润率分布差异很大。 Spotify最近发布了2018年财年指导,预计收入在49亿--53亿欧元,即同比增长20%-30%。 今天的汇率是1欧元兑1.23美元,这意味着营收区间在60.3亿到65.2亿美元之间。以225美元每股价格计算,意味着6.6倍的市销率。 由于Spotify主要做订阅业务(尽管免费用户占了Spotify一半以上,但免费用户支撑的广告营收仅占其收入的十分之一),因此,将其收入与其他互联网订阅业务进行比较是ok的。而且,Spotify已经赢得了一个流行绰号:“音乐奈飞”。 尽管Netflix尚未正式发布2018财年收入指导,但其首席执行官里德•哈斯丁(Reed Hastings)预计今年收入150亿美元。更具体地说,华尔街分析师的预期收入目标为158.2亿美元(相对2017年同比增34%)。 Netflix目前市值1281.7亿美元,也就是8.1倍的市销率。看起来,加拿大皇家银行的目标价还是可以有的。但要注意是,2017财年Netflix的毛利率是34%,spotify只有21%。另外,Netflix预计34%的增长率也高于Spotify的20% -30%的增长幅度,Netflix的规模是spotify的两倍多,所以Netflix溢价是合理的。 还有一个比较容易做的比较,对比潘多拉$(P)$——音乐流媒体领域中Spotify唯一真正的纯音乐播放器对手。Pandora目前的市值仅为12.8亿美元,和Netflix一样,它也没有正式发布2018财年的收入指导,但华尔街对其今年收入共识为15.1亿美元,意味着市销率0.9。 拜spotify所赐,潘多拉正处在垂死边缘,广告收入停滞不前,订阅增长无法弥补平淡的营收增长。尽管如此,这个预期市销率之差还是相当大的。 订阅用户数 还可以从订阅用户的维度比较,由于Spotify会员每月9.99美元和Pandora、Netflix一样,因此不讨论毛利差值,就可以比较订户数(Pandora有一个名为Pandora Plus的流媒体服务,每月收费4.99美元,下文会区别讨论)。 Spotify是这几家公司里唯一发布了2018订阅数指南的公司,我们将对比2017年的数据。一起看下Spotify在付费订阅方面的历史增长: 排除价格变动,每个订阅用户每年带来120美元营收 – 假设用户零流失(历史上流失率在5-6%之间,不过净增加超过了它),订阅基础为7100万用户的年度经常性营收价值为85亿美元。2018财年,我们注意到Spotify预计将有9200万-9600万的订阅用户,同比增长30%-36%。 再次使用Spotify的最高估值414亿美元来分析,基于2017年订阅基数,Spotify每用户的市场价值为583美元。考虑到每个订阅用户每年带来120美元的收入(不包括他们每月的免费试用或流失),这并没有太不合理。 另一方面,Netflix在FY17年底有1.1亿付费用户,每个用户的市场价值达到1158美元——嗯,再次溢价Spotify。 在FY17年底,潘多拉有548万付费用户,与Spotify相比,这个数字微不足道。这意味着每用户的市场价值为234美元——不过,潘多拉的大部分用户来自于5美元/月的Pandora plus。 另一个可以做比较的是爱奇艺$(IQ)$,所谓的“中国奈飞”,上周刚刚在美国上市。爱奇艺目前的市值为109.99亿美元,5080万付费用户即每位订阅用户216美元。 MAUs 最后,我们还可以像许多互联网投资者一样,在MAU基础上评估Spotify的估值。使用MAU作为指标相对订阅者的分析优势是,可以捕捉到Spotify免费用户的价值 - 虽然这部分收入并不像会员那么多,但它们确实有助于Spotify的规模。像Netflix这样的订阅企业不会报告每月活跃用户,但其他大型互联网公司如Facebook$(FB)$和Twitter$(TWTR)$都会报告。 Spotify在FY17报告了1.57亿MAU,如下所示: 使用与上述相同的逻辑,Spotify市值415亿美元意味着每MAU264美元。我们还注意到,18财年预计MAU同比增长26%-32%,会达到1.98亿-2.08亿的范围。 在剑桥分析公司事件爆发后,Facebook的市值仅为4641.9亿美元。FB在FY17财年结束时报告了21.3亿的MAUs,每个MAU价值为218美元。考虑到Facebook用户已经严重饱和,其MAU同比增长率为14%,比Spotify低得多。这使得Spotify的每MAU估值显得合理。 2017财年,推特MAU为3.3亿,增长乏力。目前推特市值为217.8亿美元,对应为66美元/ MAU。 Snap的情况是,它公布了每日活跃用户(DAUs),而不是MAUs。显然,DAUs比MAUs更有价值,不过这两个指标并不能做同类比较。截止到FY17年,Snap的DAU为1.87亿,目前市值为194.7亿美元,即每MAU 104美元。 最后 当用Netflix$(NFLX)$作为Spotify估值之锚,200美元至225美元的价格区间似乎不那么不合理。225美元对应Spotify市值为414亿美元,虽然是Spotify最近私人估值190亿美元的两倍多,从营收和每订阅用户价值而言仍比Netflix便宜。 然而,Netflix的毛利率远高于Spotify——理论上使其收益流和用户群比Spotify更有价值。Netflix增长也略快一些,并产生了强劲的EBITDA。 有必要给大家一些常识性提示,由于Spotify直接上市,波动性必然更高;应当关注Spotify的估值,注意不要盲目交易。 本文翻译自seekingalpha.com 免责声明:本文仅表达我的观点,仅供参考,并非建议买入或卖出任何证券。投资有失去本金的风险。请始终进行自己的研究,并认真考虑您的投资决策。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174400","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NFLX","SPOT","TWTR","IQ","DBX","FB","P"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5115,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/174407"}
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