nivlac
2021-07-16
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Investors Feel Almost No Risk Of Long-Term U.S. Stock Market Downside
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This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend.</li>\n <li>Any investor who believes in the concept of reversion to the mean will be terrified by how clearly overvalued the US is.</li>\n <li>The current long-term US government bond rate of 1.5% is clearly supporting share prices. Suppose it was to reverse that, it would spell the end of this current market peak.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In apoll of my followers on LinkedInand Twitter, I asked, \"What US S&P500 average annual return do you expect over the next 10 years?\" At the most extremes, 18% expected greater than 10%, while only 7% said less than zero percent. The majority said from 5-10%. In fact, most people see strong positive returns going forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad66b8ae3f6ba781bf8dc6539440157\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>But EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is way above average</span></p>\n<p>But EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is way above average</p>\n<p>The current trailing US EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is very high compared to its 10x average since 1990. This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend. Any investor who believes in the concept of reversion to the mean will be terrified by how clearly overvalued the US is.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455b1c6e46a203eac21cf1558f19a8b6\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The market hasn't touched the Shiller CAPE 2000 peak</p>\n<p>Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted PE ratio (CAPE) is now approaching 35x. It was only higher when it hit 42x during the dot com bubble in 2000. Consider that in 2000, US government long-term bonds were yielding about 5%, versus the current 1.5%. From this chart, you can see that the US market has been in a long bull run since the 1979 interest rate peak.</p>\n<p>A fundamental investor knows that the value of a stock is largely dependent on the discount rate, which depends on the US bond rates. The current long-term US government bond rate of 1.5% is clearly supporting share prices. Suppose it was to reverse that, it would spell the end of this current market peak. Based on this chart, a fundamental investor would say that the US market is now significantly overvalued.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fadd296792cb1ac8c32a0fd2505f479\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Though expensive, we are not in uncharted territory</p>\n<p>We calculated the US stock market EV/EBITDA for each month from 1990 to today. We then broke those into ten deciles from cheapest month to most expensive. After that, we asked, \"How often was the market trading in that state?\" We found that 20% of the time, the US market traded in the decile of 8.1x to 8.8x EV/EBITA. Twelve percent of the time, the market traded below 8.1x, and 14% of the time, the market was trading above the most expensive decile >12.3x. At 17.2x EV/EBITDA multiple, the US market is clearly expensive.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb8b967176a977c3e3aae8221fd54c9\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Today's buyers may not see positive returns</p>\n<p>We next asked, \"What were the forward returns earned if an investor were to buy the market at each decile?\" The results show that if you invested at the most common decile (8.1x to 8.8), you would have earned a 15% return over one year and 35% over five years.</p>\n<p>Those subsequent returns start to fall once the EV/EBTIDA rises above this decile (buying an expensive market means less gain). And most importantly, when the market trades in the most expensive decile (where we are now), subsequent 1, 2, and 3 returns were negative. An investor would have to wait five years to get a return only slightly above zero. A fundamental investor would consider this information and have a relatively negative view of the stock market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9eb026eb46cdd09709d7677a5ae00b\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9eb026eb46cdd09709d7677a5ae00b\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Recent EPS collapse has been much shorter time</p>\n<p>The next chart considers the five main falls in earnings per share since 1900. One conclusion is that the fall in EPS has become less protracted. The Great Depression saw a four-year decline in earnings, while earnings fell for only 2 years from the 2000 peak and the 2007 peak. It is also fascinating to see that there was only a 20% fall in earnings in 2020, and that fall only happened over one year (2021 earnings are recovering).</p>\n<p>A fundamental investor could look at this chart and think that the recent crisis was quite minimal. This is partly because some sectors (info tech), some quality (high cash companies) and some size (large) companies did very well during this recent crisis. In addition, since many small or weak companies got destroyed, the supply of products and services has been reduced, which leads to strong pricing power for those that remain.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445a232da0f6b76431ae38194fde2e22\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin recovery is in place</p>\n<p>The net margins of corporate America have been on the rise since 1990. Over the past decade, they have averaged about 8%. The shaded areas on this chart show the period from peak to trough of net margin. The most significant thing about this chart is that the margin collapse is done and the margin recovery is underway. It is debatable whether the margin can recover to the prior peaks, but it is not unreasonable to say that the margin recovery has further to go. This could be positive for the US stock market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbe8d0714e329dbc65b118f09f807e3f\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors Feel Almost No Risk Of Long-Term U.S. Stock Market Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors Feel Almost No Risk Of Long-Term U.S. Stock Market Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 21:21 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439518-investors-feel-almost-no-risk-of-long-term-u-s-stock-market-downside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe current trailing US EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is very high compared to its 10x average since 1990. This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend.\nAny ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439518-investors-feel-almost-no-risk-of-long-term-u-s-stock-market-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439518-investors-feel-almost-no-risk-of-long-term-u-s-stock-market-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1171115394","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe current trailing US EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is very high compared to its 10x average since 1990. This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend.\nAny investor who believes in the concept of reversion to the mean will be terrified by how clearly overvalued the US is.\nThe current long-term US government bond rate of 1.5% is clearly supporting share prices. Suppose it was to reverse that, it would spell the end of this current market peak.\n\nIn apoll of my followers on LinkedInand Twitter, I asked, \"What US S&P500 average annual return do you expect over the next 10 years?\" At the most extremes, 18% expected greater than 10%, while only 7% said less than zero percent. The majority said from 5-10%. In fact, most people see strong positive returns going forward.\nBut EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is way above average\nBut EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is way above average\nThe current trailing US EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is very high compared to its 10x average since 1990. This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend. Any investor who believes in the concept of reversion to the mean will be terrified by how clearly overvalued the US is.\n\nThe market hasn't touched the Shiller CAPE 2000 peak\nRobert Shiller's cyclically adjusted PE ratio (CAPE) is now approaching 35x. It was only higher when it hit 42x during the dot com bubble in 2000. Consider that in 2000, US government long-term bonds were yielding about 5%, versus the current 1.5%. From this chart, you can see that the US market has been in a long bull run since the 1979 interest rate peak.\nA fundamental investor knows that the value of a stock is largely dependent on the discount rate, which depends on the US bond rates. The current long-term US government bond rate of 1.5% is clearly supporting share prices. Suppose it was to reverse that, it would spell the end of this current market peak. Based on this chart, a fundamental investor would say that the US market is now significantly overvalued.\n\nThough expensive, we are not in uncharted territory\nWe calculated the US stock market EV/EBITDA for each month from 1990 to today. We then broke those into ten deciles from cheapest month to most expensive. After that, we asked, \"How often was the market trading in that state?\" We found that 20% of the time, the US market traded in the decile of 8.1x to 8.8x EV/EBITA. Twelve percent of the time, the market traded below 8.1x, and 14% of the time, the market was trading above the most expensive decile >12.3x. At 17.2x EV/EBITDA multiple, the US market is clearly expensive.\n\nToday's buyers may not see positive returns\nWe next asked, \"What were the forward returns earned if an investor were to buy the market at each decile?\" The results show that if you invested at the most common decile (8.1x to 8.8), you would have earned a 15% return over one year and 35% over five years.\nThose subsequent returns start to fall once the EV/EBTIDA rises above this decile (buying an expensive market means less gain). And most importantly, when the market trades in the most expensive decile (where we are now), subsequent 1, 2, and 3 returns were negative. An investor would have to wait five years to get a return only slightly above zero. A fundamental investor would consider this information and have a relatively negative view of the stock market.\n.\n\nRecent EPS collapse has been much shorter time\nThe next chart considers the five main falls in earnings per share since 1900. One conclusion is that the fall in EPS has become less protracted. The Great Depression saw a four-year decline in earnings, while earnings fell for only 2 years from the 2000 peak and the 2007 peak. It is also fascinating to see that there was only a 20% fall in earnings in 2020, and that fall only happened over one year (2021 earnings are recovering).\nA fundamental investor could look at this chart and think that the recent crisis was quite minimal. This is partly because some sectors (info tech), some quality (high cash companies) and some size (large) companies did very well during this recent crisis. In addition, since many small or weak companies got destroyed, the supply of products and services has been reduced, which leads to strong pricing power for those that remain.\n\nMargin recovery is in place\nThe net margins of corporate America have been on the rise since 1990. Over the past decade, they have averaged about 8%. The shaded areas on this chart show the period from peak to trough of net margin. The most significant thing about this chart is that the margin collapse is done and the margin recovery is underway. It is debatable whether the margin can recover to the prior peaks, but it is not unreasonable to say that the margin recovery has further to go. This could be positive for the US stock market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/170511291"}
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